Bright Side Bets: A Kevin Durant parlay worth looking at

Examining the odds deepens your understanding of how Vegas projects Durant’s performance and offers insight into his past achievements.

We’re continuing our betting series here at *Bright Side*, and not only is it fun to throw some money on the Phoenix Suns, but it also provides valuable insight into how Vegas views the team heading into the 2024-25 season.

Betting odds reflect more than just fan excitement. They capture broader perceptions of the team’s potential, factoring in everything from roster moves and coaching changes to historical trends and injury concerns. By following these odds, we can get a clearer picture of expectations for the Suns in this highly competitive season.

As I go through the countless ways to put money on Phoenix in some capacity this season, here is one that caught my eye.

Kevin Durant to Average 25+ PPG, 6+ RPG, 6+ APG

Hey, hey! It’s the birthday boy! Happy 36th birthday to the Slim Reaper!

DraftKings has put together this unique betting line in their “Team Specials” section of futures betting. It’s an interesting line as it forces me to have a better understanding of what Durant has done in his career relative to these numbers. How often has he gone over 25 points? 6 rebounds? 6 assists?

The betting side is just one piece of the puzzle; the learning side is equally important. Wagering on a team like the Suns forces you to dig deeper into the analytics, trends, and nuances of how Vegas sets odds. It sharpens your understanding of the game, whether it’s recognizing the impact of player efficiency, coaching strategies, or how matchups influence outcomes.

The odds aren’t just numbers; they reflect a narrative about the team’s strengths, weaknesses, and potential. By following this, you not only bet smarter but also become a more informed fan, gaining a richer perspective on what drives the Suns’ success or setbacks.

The Case for Yes (+1400)

History.

Kevin Durant is a machine. An all-time great. If you need any further proof of this undeniable fact, just take a look at his historical stat line. Durant’s career averages — nearly 30 points per game on elite efficiency, including 50% shooting from the field, 38% from three, and over 88% from the free-throw line — place him in rarefied air. He’s a four-time scoring champion, a two-time Finals MVP, and a 14-time All-Star. Durant’s ability to dominate on both ends of the floor and elevate his game in crucial moments sets him apart as one of the most complete and consistent players in NBA history.

His career scoring average? 27.3 points. Rebounds? 7.0. Assists? 4.4. While he doesn’t average the 25/6/6 needed to chase this bet, it isn’t something that is outside the realm of possibility for him to achieve. Last season, he scored 27.1 points, grabbed 6.6 rebounds, and dished 5.0 assists.

If you believe the Suns will improve their spacing under Budenholzer’s system and that better ball movement will lead to more scoring opportunities, KD could potentially add another assist per game. Last season, Phoenix ranked 10th in scoring at 116.2 points per game and 12th in assists with an average of 27.0 per game. Improved offensive flow could push those numbers even higher.

That’s the gamble.

The Case for No (—)

I guess case number one is you want to save money. Or you live in an area where this bet is unavailable.

The main argument against betting on this is simple: in Durant’s 16 seasons, he’s only hit those numbers for an entire season once. That’s right, during the 2021-22 season with the Brooklyn Nets, Durant averaged 29.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists.

The key takeaway? That was the only time he averaged over 6 assists per game in his career. Sure, he’s come close — 5.9 assists in 2018-19, 5.6 in 2020-21, and 5.5 in 2013-14 — but he’s only crossed the mark once. He’s only lit the cigar on the plus side of 6 assists one time. And with the addition of a traditional point guard in Tyus Jones, personally, I’m hoping he comes up short on assists. I’m looking for KD to have the playmakers around him set him up for success, not the other way around.

PREDICTION: KD over 25 points, over 6 rebounds, under 6 assists

In short, I think that KD has it in him, but I don’t think he’s going to need to hit these numbers this season. He isn’t carrying a team like he did in 2020-21. He’s part of a Big Three that will see more time on the court (and already has) than his time with James Harden and Kyrie Irving. So, while I believe he’ll hit the over on points and rebounds, assists will come up short. Save your money.