The 6th seed a season ago. Will they repeat that seeding, be better, or be worse?
The Phoenix Suns finished 49-37 a season ago, which slotted them in as the sixth seed in the Western Conference. No homecourt advantage. And ultimately, no playoff wins.
Sure, it was nice that they didn’t have to play in the Play-In, right? Geeze. Just remembering how that was a possibility was frustrating to contemplate as the team was preparing for the final weeks of the season. Their schedule was tough, and if they could get their act together, they would be fighting for their playoff lives. But hey, maybe then we would’ve experienced a win after game 82.
We talked yesterday about the Suns and their over/under as it relates to their overall win total. 47.5 wins. So far, early returns from the community align with my thinking, taking the over. Vegas doesn’t have much faith in Phoenix’s offseason moves, and it’s clear that a tough conference, combined with the team’s history of injuries, has cast doubt over their future.
This is fortified by their line relative to their finishing seed.
Over/Under Team Seeding: 6.5
So…uh…what does that mean? What does “over the 6.5 seed” mean? I actually reached out to DraftKings support for a better understanding, because 7 is over 6 if my mathing is correct. Their response? If you bet the over 6.5, you are betting that the Suns will have a seed 6th or higher. If you bet the under, and they get the sixth seed, you lose. Make sense?
The Case for the Over (-125)
A case for betting the over is essentially a case for the Suns maintaining their level from last season. When you look at the NBA landscape, the first question to ask is, “Did any teams improve more than the Suns?” Quickly followed by, “Did anyone get worse?”
You could argue that teams like the Sacramento Kings, who added DeMar DeRozan, and possibly Houston, with a healthy Sengun, have improved. Even the Pelicans, after bringing in Dejounte Murray, could make a case for getting better. All of these teams finished below the Suns in the standings last season.
But then there are the teams that may have worsened who were ahead of Phoenix in the standings. The Los Angeles Clippers — the fourth seed last year — bid adieu to Paul George, which opens the door for Phoenix to move up potentially.
The Case for the Under (+105)
If you’re betting on the Suns to hit the under on the projected win total of 47.5, then you’re essentially predicting they’ll finish as the 7th seed or lower.
Historically, the average win total for the 6th seed in the Western Conference since 2003 (excluding shortened seasons) has been 48.6 wins. That means if they don’t surpass 48 wins, their chances of landing that 6th seed drop significantly, pushing them into the Play-In range or worse.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 Seed
I’ve predicted a 53-29 finish, and I’m confident that will be enough to secure the Suns a spot higher than the 6th seed. Though, if this were 2008, even 55-27 wouldn’t have been enough. Phoenix ended up as the 6th seed that year despite an impressive record.
If you’re considering betting on the Suns’ exact seed, here’s how the odds stack up:
- +2000
- +1300
- +1000
- +850
- +800
- +800
- +800
- +800
- +850
- +900
So how you feeling? What you thinking? Where you betting?