Their line dropped for a season ago. So, are we betting it?
With the season fast approaching, it’s time to start looking at some of the betting odds that are out there in the ether. DraftKings has numerous futures bets for us to peruse, so over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of those numbers and determine whether it’s worth putting some money down.
There are countless questions about the Phoenix Suns and how they will perform this season, and we truly have no clue what to expect. Sure, we’re making our predictions…it’s the time of year to do so. We’re taking a deep, thorough look at this team and the Western Conference landscape to get a clearer sense of where their fate may lie. No one truly knows. But where’s the fun in just saying, “I’m not sure, so I’ll say nothing”?
Over/Under: 47.5 Wins
The Case for the Over (-105)
Interesting line here, isn’t it? This team, amidst all of the integration, the injuries, and the bench reset in 2023-24, managed to put together 49 wins a season ago. Granted, this was less than the DraftKings over/under line set before the season of 51.5. But they are now expected to be worse than last season? I like to think of myself as somewhat of a realist, but I just don’t see this one.
Phoenix returns nine players from a season ago, including all of their top six guys (Booker, Durant, Beal, Nurkic, Allen, O’Neale). They’ve added Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, two playmakers who possess ball security. Mason Plumlee is better than Drew Eubanks, there is an infusion of youth with Ryan Dunn, and Damion Lee should be an upgrade over Eric Gordon.
So…the Phoenix is worse? Will they win fewer games than the 2023-24 discombobulated squad?
The Case for the Under (-115)
Well, let’s start with the fact the Suns and the over haven’t been friends for the past couple of years. Last season they missed hitting the over by three games (damn you, Spurs). The previous season, the Suns over/under was also 51.5 wins. The Suns finished 45-37 in Monty Williams’ last season with Phoenix.
Asking for 52 wins in the Western Conference was a lot last season. Sure, I believed that the previous season, when the Denver Nuggets were the number one seed with 53 wins, was an anomaly. That history tells us that the number one seed in the West, over the previous 20 years (2003-2023, excluding COVID and lockout years), averaged 62.1 wins. And I was right. Two teams finished with 57 wins last season, and it just happened that the Suns weren’t one of them.
The 47.5 win mark is Vegas saying, “The Western Conference is going to be tough this season”, and they are right. Some teams (Denver, Clippers) got slightly worse. But others (Minnesota, OKC, Dallas) made additions that could propel them higher in the standings. The West will, like it did two seasons ago, spend the entire year beating each other up. 10-game win streaks aren’t happening.
Vegas is saying that it will be a bumpy ride, and Phoenix will experience those bumps and may have a few bruises along the way.
PREDICTION: Over 47.5 wins
If this line mirrored last season, I think I’d still take the over. A realist who is optimistic this year, I am firm in believing that continuity coupled with ball security equates to more wins. Remember, had this team simply taken care of the ball in the fourth quarter last season, they easily hit that over. My preseason prediction is a 53-29 squad, and the adjusted line of over 50.5 is +205 on DraftKings. Bet submitted.