Phoenix is streaking. Can they keep it going at home tonight?
Who: Phoenix Suns (6-1) vs. Miami Heat (3-3)
When: 7:00pm Arizona Time
Where: Footprint Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Arizona’s Family 3TV, Arizona’s Family Sports
Listen: KMVP 98.7
The Suns aim to keep their momentum going as they host the Miami Heat at the Footprint Center tonight, eyeing their sixth straight win. Despite their strengths, this team still has areas to improve, with weaknesses to address and plenty of opportunities to grow. While Phoenix may not yet stand alongside the NBA’s top-tier teams like the Celtics, Thunder, or Cavaliers, they remain a formidable force.
Right now, the Suns are mastering the art of winning close games—a crucial skill in the NBA, where outcomes can swing any night. So far this season, five of Phoenix’s seven games have come down to clutch moments (the final five minutes with a margin of five points or fewer), and they’ve emerged victorious in all five. Their ability to close out tight games underscores just how dangerous this team can be.
The Suns in the clutch:
❄️2023-24: 20-21 (#16)
2024-25: 5-0 (#1)— John Voita (@DarthVoita) November 5, 2024
I’m curious to see which version of the Suns will show up tonight against the Miami Heat.
Miami no longer has the powerhouse feel they once did, though they made Finals appearances as recently as 2020 and 2023. Under Erik Spoelstra’s coaching, they’re always a competitive threat, but with an aging Jimmy Butler and a roster that doesn’t fit together as seamlessly as before, their edge seems dulled. The Heat come in with a 3-3 record, currently placing them third in the Eastern Conference—but those wins have come against the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, and Sacramento Kings, not exactly a gauntlet of elite opponents.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Bradley Beal — PROBABLE (Right Elbow Soreness)
Heat
- Jaime Jaquez, Jr.— OUT (Illness)
- Kevin Love — OUT (Return to Competition Reconditioning)
Uniform Matchup
What to Watch For
All eyes will naturally be on the matchup between Bam Adebayo and Jusuf Nurkic. Athletic big men often challenge Nurkic defensively, so it’ll be interesting to see how quickly Coach Budenholzer adjusts if Nurk Daddy struggles. Much will depend on how well Adebayo performs, as he’s currently averaging just 15.3 points per game on a career-low 44.2% shooting, his lowest scoring average since the 2018-19 season.
The Suns have shown they can win in a variety of ways. In their victory over the 76ers, they focused on attacking the paint rather than relying heavily on three-pointers, exploiting Philly’s weak interior defense. Tonight, facing Bam Adebayo and Miami’s strong defensive unit, the Suns are likely in for a tougher battle in the paint.
Phoenix ranks 4th in the league in limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 50.9% EFG. Miami, close behind at 7th, allows a 51.8% EFG and is particularly effective at defending the perimeter, with opponents shooting just 34.8% from beyond the arc (11th best in the league). This defensive matchup should make for an intriguing test of both teams’ versatility.
Key to a Suns Win
If the Suns can effectively leverage their mid-range game — a signature strength of theirs — it could be the key to winning this matchup. With Devin Booker and Kevin Durant as two of the league’s most efficient mid-range shooters, Phoenix has the weapons to exploit any defensive gaps Miami might leave outside the paint and beyond the arc. Miami’s defense is solid in the paint and respectable on the perimeter, but the mid-range is where they may be vulnerable.
This area of the floor is crucial for Phoenix because it opens up opportunities that force Miami to stretch their defense, creating space for drives or kick-outs to the perimeter. If Booker and Durant get into a rhythm from mid-range, it will likely pull Miami’s defenders out of their comfort zones, disrupting their structure and putting more pressure on Adebayo to cover multiple threats. In close games, the Suns’ ability to capitalize on this mid-range advantage could be what tips the scales in their favor.
Prediction
I’m leaning toward Phoenix in this one, though it could end up being a low-scoring game given both teams’ defensive strengths. FanDuel has set the over/under at 221, but I’m taking the under.
Suns 107, Heat 102