The crossroads for the Phoenix Suns as they balance payroll, performance, and future success.
With just 24 games left, the Phoenix Suns are charting a path never before seen in NBA history. No team has ever spent this much money to achieve so little. It’s not just astonishing. It’s almost impressive in its inefficiency. Every move they’ve made has unraveled, from the grand vision of roster construction to the minute details of rotations, player development, and execution.
It’s not a perfect formula, but if you break it down — team cap hit divided by total wins — you get a sobering metric: the cost of each victory. And unsurprisingly, no team is paying a steeper price for so little return than the Phoenix Suns.
The seven teams ahead of the Suns in this “cost per win” scenario have an average cap hit of $167 million. The Suns? They are $47 million over that. Or, in basketball terms, a “Bradley Beal and Bol Bol” over that.
For a team shelling out over $214 million in payroll, the expectation isn’t just to compete. It’s to dominate. Yet, instead of battling for the top of the standings, the Suns find themselves with a win total that mirrors teams spending far less. When stacked against the rest of the league, the Suns aren’t just underachieving; they’re one of the least efficient teams in turning dollars into victories.
The last time the Suns sat at 27–31 through 58 games? You’d have to rewind 40 years to the 1984–85 season. A different era, a different game, and a vastly different financial landscape. Back then, the Suns’ payroll — if you tally up the 11 players listed on Basketball-Reference — was a mere $3.8 million. Walter Davis was the highest-paid player, pulling in $670K, and Phoenix was paying about $139K per win at this stage of the season.
The last time the Phoenix Suns had a 27-31 record through 58 games? The 1984-85 season.
That team finished 36-46, losing 0-3 in the first round to the Lakers. pic.twitter.com/qTpwXsMPsx
— John Voita (@DarthVoita) February 27, 2025
Fast forward to today, and the math has changed dramatically. The Suns’ cost per win has skyrocketed into unprecedented territory, a staggering testament to just how much money they’ve poured into a roster that has yet to deliver. My, how the times have changed.
Where do we go from here? That’s the looming question, and the answer isn’t exactly clear. Mat Ishbia is walking a tightrope, one that could have lasting consequences for the Suns’ ability to remain a contender. And being a contender isn’t just a preference for him, it’s an obsession. But his vision for achieving that will have to evolve because throwing money at the problem isn’t the solution.
New owner syndrome took hold the moment he acquired the team two years ago, and now, the weight of those aggressive moves may force him to tread more carefully. The second apron isn’t just a minor inconvenience; it’s a financial and strategic death trap. If the Suns remain above it on June 30 — the final day of the league year — their 2032 first-round pick will be frozen, rendered untradable. And since this would be the second time in four years they’ve crossed that threshold, they’d trigger the Draft Pick Penalty, pushing that selection to the very end of the first round.
Living in the second apron isn’t sustainable. It’s a slow bleed, one that could drain the Suns of future flexibility and force them into an even deeper spiral. Ishbia wanted to build a powerhouse. Now, he has to figure out how to keep it from collapsing under its own weight.
The penalties for excessive spending are steep, and the Suns are feeling them in real time. But the worst part? There’s nothing to show for it. This isn’t a case of mortgaging the future for present-day success. They’re failing now, and they’re on track to fail later.
The next 24 games are a countdown, not just to the end of the season but to a crossroads for this franchise. The front office faces pivotal decisions that will shape the Suns’ trajectory. As we inch closer to the summer, speculation will intensify, searching for answers, for a path forward, for hope.
And maybe that means a lull in win totals over the next few years as the organization regroups. Maybe that means accepting short-term pain to build something sustainable. That’s fine. We’re already in the middle of it. What we want — what we need — is belief that there’s a way out, a way back to true contention. The time to pivot isn’t coming. It’s here.
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