Currently, Phoenix’s odds to win it all stand at +5500 on FanDuel.
The Emirates NBA Cup was created to inject excitement into the early part of the season, energizing both players and fanbases. With cash prizes, a banner up for grabs (looking at you, Lakers), bold court designs, and City Edition uniforms, the tournament has a distinctly different feel.
Last season, the Phoenix Suns experienced the thrill of the then-named In-Season Tournament. After dropping their first game to the Los Angeles Lakers, they bounced back to beat the Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, and Memphis Grizzlies, finishing 3-1 in Group Play. Thanks to their +34 point differential, they secured the fourth and final spot in the knockout round.
Although they were ultimately eliminated by the Lakers, the NBA successfully realized its goal of sparking early-season engagement, at least for fans in Phoenix.
This season, however, there won’t be another push to the NBA Cup knockout round. For the Suns, their final two group play games will simply be regular games on the schedule. They’re out of the running for the NBA Cup and won’t be advancing to the knockout stage either.
How? Let me explain.
Let’s start with the Western Conference Group B standings:
Phoenix is the only team to have played two games so far. With a win against the Jazz on Tuesday and a loss to the Thunder on Friday, they currently sit in the middle of the pack. Although they haven’t been mathematically eliminated, their chances aren’t looking promising.
Point differential matters.
The Jazz are the weakest team in Group B, and Phoenix managed only an 8-point win over them. This puts the Suns at a disadvantage, as every other team in the group still has the opportunity to boost their point differential in their matchups against Utah, which could spell trouble for Phoenix.
The way Phoenix lost to the Thunder is a significant blow. It means the Suns can’t go undefeated in Group B, forcing them to rely on one of two scenarios to make the knockout round. Either every other team needs to lose at least one game — bringing the decision down to head-to-head matchups as the tiebreaker — or the Suns must finish 3-1 with a strong enough point differential across all Western Conference groups to secure the fourth spot, as they did last year.
There’s a key difference: last season, their sole group play loss was by 3 points, whereas last night, they fell by 16.
Phoenix still has two NBA Cup games remaining on their schedule: one against the Lakers on Tuesday, November 26, and another against the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, December 3. Both matchups will be at home. However, unless the Suns can completely reverse last night’s dismal 29.4% shooting and manage to blow out one of those teams by 50 points, it seems these games will simply be regular Tuesday night matchups against Western Conference opponents. With very, very orange courts.
If you were looking forward to the NBA Cup and hoping the Suns would secure the second-ever title, I’m sorry to temper your excitement. The truth is, the stars just aren’t aligning for that to happen this season. And that’s okay. The tournament brings a fun sense of purpose early in the season, but our eyes are on the bigger prize: the Larry O’Brien trophy and a banner truly worth hanging (still looking at you, Lakers).