I will predict the long-range shooting percentage of every single rotation member (that shoots) of the Phoenix Suns.
Today we are going to dive into the shooting numbers from deep for the Phoenix Suns. I will take you through the 12 (potential) rotation players’ career numbers and make predictions on what they will shoot this season from distance.
I will exclude Plumlee, Oso, and the two-way contracts in this due to the lack of expected attempts from that group.
Let’s start with the Suns’ rank among their peers in several key three-point shooting categories last season under Frank Vogel.
Suns 2023-24 NBA Rank
- 3PT%: 38.2% (5th)
- 3P Attempts: 32.6 per game (25th)
- 3P Makes: 12.4 per game (20th)
These rankings are both encouraging and frustrating at the same time. The efficiency is great, but we need more volume. TURN THE VOLUME UP, BUD! I think we see a slight decrease in some percentages across the board for the Suns, but they will attempt more threes and be better for it.
Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
Grayson Allen — Guard
- 2024 3PT%: 46.1%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 205/445 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 41.2%
- Prediction: 43.3%
Allen will continue to snipe being surrounded by stars and now facilitators to generate even cleaner looks. The ridiculous 46 percent clip is probably not sustainable, so I’ll put him at a crisp 43. Get this man in the 3-point contest.
Bradley Beal — Guard
- 2024 3PT%: 43.0%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 101/235 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 37.5%
- Prediction: 40.3%
Beal shot a career-best 43.0% percent from deep last season for the Suns, well above his career clip of 37.5. The difference in role makes the leap understandable, and I believe he’ll have a second consecutive year above 40 percent from deep.
Kevin Durant — Forward
- 2024 3PT%: 41.3%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 168/407 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 38.7%
- Prediction: 40.1%
Durant is right near 39 percent from deep in his career. As a member of the Suns, that number has leaped to 42.4 percent. I think a slight dip in percentage comes with an increase in volume next season for Durant, but he should flirt with 40 again.
Monte Morris — Guard
- 2024 3PT%: 38.6%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 27/70 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 39.1%
- Prediction: 40.0%
Morris has been a steady shooter throughout his career and I expect that to continue in Phoenix. He may not get heavy minutes, but he should make the most of the time he gets as he typically does. This could be his best shooting season yet with the spacing the Suns should provide him with.
Damion Lee — Guard
- 2024 3PT%: DNP
- 2023 3PT%: 44.5%
- Career 3PT%: 37.9%
- Prediction: 39.3%
I’m not sure how much Lee plays this season with how deep the team is at the guard position, but if the minutes he does get I expect him to continue to shoot it efficiently.
Photo by Jim Poorten/NBAE via Getty Images
Tyus Jones — Guard
- 2024 3PT%: 41.4%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 106/256 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 36.7%
- Prediction: 38.9%
Jones is coming off a career-high in three-point shooting percentage last season in Washington at 41.4 percent. While the numbers say he may not be able to sustain that, I expect him to be somewhere between his career and last year’s numbers.
Royce O’Neale — Forward
- 2024 3PT%: 37.0%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 156/422 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 38.1
- Prediction: 38.8%
O’Neale is about as consistent as it gets when it comes to his three-point shooting numbers. This season should be no different as he lands in the upper 30’s.
Devin Booker — Guard
- 2024 3PT%: 36.4%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 152/418 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 35.7%
- Prediction: 37.8%
Devin Booker entered the league with the label as a “three-point specialist” or “floor spacer”. While he is an effective shooter, his game (and numbers) show he truly isn’t one. The balance in his offensive game is spread across all three levels. He has yet to put together a 40+ three-point percentage in a single season and his career clip sits at a pedestrian 35.7 percent. I’m going with a decent increase from last season.
Bol Bol — Forward
- 2024 3PT%: 42.3%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 22/52 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 32.7%
- Prediction: 37.3%
Bol Bol breaking out would be a sight for sore eyes. If he can get his three-point efficiency to stick after a career-best a season ago, that’s a great start. Can he maintain that number on more attempts? We shall see.
Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images
Jusuf Nurkic — Center
- 2024 3PT%: 24.4%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 22/90 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 28.0%
- Prediction: 30.3%
Nurkic’s development (or lack thereof) could be the defining moment of the Suns’ season in terms of optimizing the offense. If Coach Bud can utilize him as a capable stretch big who can also pass the rock, that changes the entire dynamic of the Suns’ offensive ceiling. That’s a big if, but if he can even get near 35% from deep, that would be a massive win for Phoenix. He just needs to keep the defense honest, because they will invite him to let it fly… he needs to make them pay.
Josh Okogie — Wing
- 2024 3PT%: 30.9%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 29/94 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 29.3%
- Prediction: 30.0%
We need Okogie to knock down threes this season. The hustle and effort are great, but this team desperately needs a wing that can help on both ends without being detrimental on the other end. JO needs his jumper to fall more often for that to be the case.
Ryan Dunn — Forward
*College stats
- 2024 3PT%: 20.0%
- 3PFGM/3PFGA: 7/35 attempts
- Career 3PT%: 23.5%
- Prediction: 29.5%
This single percentage could make or break Dunn’s hopes of cracking the rotation as a rookie. But more importantly, it will define just how valuable of a wing he can be. We all know he can defend. Will he be able to hit open looks enough to stay on the court? Let’s hope he can. Those college shooting numbers are rough, but I think he can figure it out. The form of his jumper is not bad.
That wraps up my shooting predictions for the Suns. Let’s see how many of these 12 predictions I get correct or totally miss on — bookmark it, screenshot it, whatever you like.
Let us know your picks below!