As much as it is hard to write about the negatives after a great win, it is important to know that the Suns have not fixed their issues permanently.
The Phoenix Suns are back in the win column as they hand the Denver Nuggets a very special Christmas L.
But the work doesn’t stop, and as I mentioned in one tweet, it will take a few more games like that to convince many people that the Suns have turned the corner. After all, consistency has been their Achilles heel this season.
It’s gonna take a few more games like this to convince a lot of people that the Suns have turned the corner.
— Kevin Salut (@imKevinPS) December 26, 2024
Coming into the Christmas game against the Nuggets, the Suns were 14-14 and amid a three-game losing skid—a record that they tallied at the same time a year ago under a different coaching regime.
As John Voita has written, last year was more of an experimental phase with the Big Three of KD, Booker, and Beal, and there was hope that they could eventually figure things out.
But the Suns, who have a new coach, one of the winningest ever in the regular season, and a point guard that everyone has been asking for, were stuck in the same boat a year later and just winning four out of their last six games including the win against Dallas. So, what exactly is wrong with the team? Let’s have a look at some numbers to find out.
Turnovers
For opposing teams, looking at the scouting report and executing a game plan against the Suns must’ve been so simple, let them shoot their shots in the first half, then rough them up come the second half and see those turnovers pile up.
The Suns are averaging 14.2 turnovers per game through 29 games, 11th in the league. One would say that the stat is not so bad, as the Boston Celtics, the barometer, only averages about two fewer turnovers. However, advanced stats tell us that the Celtics’ turnover percentage is 2nd best in the league at 12%, only second to OKC’s league-best at 11.9 while the Suns are 10 spots below at 14. To simplify this stat, there is just a high chance that a single Suns play turns into a turnover as the Suns were 10 spots below where Boston was sitting coming into the game against Dallas.
Why is this exactly? Tyus Jones leads the Suns team in touches per game, as he should because he’s the point guard, so it’s not like they’re not putting the ball in the right hands to make a play. The issue is actually on secondary or tertiary player throws as what is shown in the two videos below:
In the first video above, Royce O’Neale needs to read the defense as Kevin Durant would, as KD is expected to be doubled while trying to get to the spot where he’s so lethal, Royce needs to meet the pass instead of waiting for the ball, this gave an opportunity for Westbrook, who knows Kevin Durant’s tendencies better than anyone, to steal the ball and score on the other end.
For KD, a pass to Nurkic, who was sliding into the paint, could’ve had a better look than a low-percentage shot from Royce (Although Royce has been shooting the lights out).
The second example above is the type of play that will make you scratch your head so bad. It was a perfect pass from Beal, and Nurkic decided to pass back out to the corner. If you’re 7 feet tall, you must dunk that ball or get a foul.
Why Nurkic and Durant videos you ask? That’s because they lead the Suns in turnover rate among everyone who plays 20+ minutes every night.
Grit & Composure
The Suns played 29 games before the Christmas game against Denver, and a few of those 14 losses that Phoenix suffered could’ve gone their way if they had known how to deal with physicality. Often, the storyline from each loss was that the Suns played great basketball but couldn’t maintain the lead when their opponent started to rough them up.
It’s a similar story to last season, where they were abysmal in fourth quarters, but this time, some of the meltdown starts in the third. The Suns are scoring 27.6 points in third quarters this season, which is only good for the 20th in the league, along with 2.9 turnovers. Not bad, you say. Flip that filter to show the numbers on losses, and those numbers get uglier: 26.2 points with 3.1 turnovers.
This is where you miss Chris Paul, someone who’s mentally tough and will keep his teammates focused on the game, and even Jae Crowder, who can do his best to bully the opposing teams.
Take the game against the Orlando Magic as an example, where the Suns led at half 62-57. The Magic, who were without their two best players, edged Phoenix with their gritty play and eventually won with defensive plays like these that caused the Suns to turn the ball over:
Teams like the Magic and the Thunder, which play fast and physical, will continue to give the Suns problems unless they find a player or players who are physically imposing to counterpunch.
Complacency
The Suns have often played with their food this year and paid for it. They are currently 5-5 against teams below .500.
A legitimate playoff or championship contender would laugh at that record at this juncture of the season. Take a look at the Celtics, who are 13-2 against losing teams, and OKC, at 9-0. If the Suns are to be legitimate, they have to take care of these games.
The San Antonio Spurs, who are expected to be a play-in team this year even have a better record of 10-4 against teams below .500.
The Big Man Dilemma
Phoenix needs an upgrade at the 5, but who? Jusuf Nurkic, as much as he makes a lot of us mad, and I mean crazy with some disturbing decisions in the basketball court, who’s out there that is considerably better? Jonas Valančiūnas and Nikola Vucevic’s names were thrown in an article by Duane Rankin for The Arizona Republic, sighting that the Suns shopping Nurkic.
Let’s have a look at the stats of the aforementioned players.
Valanciunas averages 11.6 points on 55% FG, 7.9 reboundss, and 2.2 assists this season playing for the 4-23 Wizards. The main thing? He only averages 1.7 turnovers a game.
On the other hand, Nikola Vucevic is averaging 20.7 points on 57.8% and shoots much better than Nurk from three at 45%, and commits the same amount of turnovers that Valanciunas does per game.
But before we get into any hopes of getting another 20 points-per-game player, it is essential to keep in mind that even if the Bulls miraculously want this trade, the Suns cannot do a 1 on 1 trade for Vucevic as he makes $20 million this year, about $2 million more than Nurk.
Interestingly, none of those two have a playoff-winning percentage of more than 35% in their respective careers, and Nurkic has the worst percentage of all three. This is just something to keep in mind.
Willingness to Defend
There’s an old saying that defense wins championships, but the Suns seem to be depending too much on their offense to win games lately and not defending as hard as they should.
The Suns’ defensive performance in December has been abysmal. Ranked 26th in the league in defensive rating, the Suns are not doing enough to make their opponents work hard to get their points.
If you’re Mike Bundenholzer, you’ll have to find a way to play Okogie and Dunn more often as an antidote to the Suns’ bleeding defense, even if that means suffering a little bit on the offense.
Injuries
Well, we do not have to dig deep into this. But maybe load management for injury-prone stars or a 36-year-old superstar?
To close this one out, the key to all of this is consistency, if the Suns find a way to get out of this slump (which I still think they can), they have to be consistent of executing whatever winning formula they’ll find.
But if they don’t, it would not be hard to imagine that either Kevin Durant or Devin Booker would want out at the end of the season.