Tracking 40, Week 13: Coach Bud’s adjustments are quietly transforming the Suns’ season

40% three-point rate? Overrated.

Winning has a way of masking everything. Deficiencies, attitude issues, motor problems, even talent gaps…all of it feels less urgent when the W’s pile up. And right now, the Phoenix Suns are back to winning basketball games. They’ve clawed their way above .500, going 5-1 in their last six and 6-2 since relegating Beal and Nurkic to the reserved unit. The wins are rolling in, but let’s not kid ourselves: the Suns aren’t fully cured yet.

At times, it feels like they’re slogging through quicksand. Yes, they’ve looked better, particularly in Week 13, although we still witnessed some glaring issues — rebounding, focus — but capped it off with a strong, holistic win in Detroit. It was arguably one of their best team performances of the season.

But the standings tell the real story. Sitting at 21-20 and 11th in the Western Conference, the Suns find themselves in a precarious spot. The west has stabilized, and despite their recent surge, they haven’t gained much ground. Winning is great, but it hasn’t been enough to shift their standing just yet.

The flip side of all this is the opportunity that still lies ahead. A higher seed in the West isn’t out of reach. It’s right there, just beyond their grasp. The Suns are only two games out of the sixth seed and four games shy of the fourth.

We’ve reached the halfway mark of the season, and sure, they’re not quite where we’d hoped they’d be. But they’re growing as a team, finding their identity little by little. And maybe, just maybe, one day soon, they’ll finally be whole.

Week 13 Record: 2-1

@ Atlanta Hawks, W, 122-117

• Suns 3PAr: 41.7%
• Suns 3PT%: 37.1%

This game marked the breaking point for Phoenix on the boards. What’s the point of shooting a decent percentage from three if you can’t stop the opposition from dominating the glass? The stats from this one were downright embarrassing: 27 second-chance points allowed, 20 offensive rebounds surrendered, and a 54-37 overall rebounding deficit. To top it off, Onyeka Okongwu, coming off the bench, managed to drop a double-double on them.

Give the Suns credit. They only lost by five despite all of that. But it was clear: something had to change. Ranking 25th in the league in rebounding, this glaring weakness could no longer be ignored.

@ Washington Wizards, W, 130-123

• Suns 3PAr: 38.8%
• Suns 3PT%: 48.5%

This was one of those odd games where the outcome was never really in doubt, but the Suns had to make you sweat it out anyway. Annoying, right? I’ll admit, I may have been a little harsh in my critique of their unfocused play during the second and third quarters. I believe the word I used was “pathetic.” Harsh? Maybe. Accurate? Absolutely. Sometimes I write with emotion. It’s part of my charm. I think.

Every time the Suns built a 20-point lead, they decided to channel their inner Harlem Globetrotters. I swear I could hear “Sweet Georgia Brown” playing as they tossed the ball around like it was an exhibition game, practically inviting a hopeless Wizards team to make it interesting. And boy, did they. Thirty-two fast break points surrendered? Yeah, I stand by my comment. Pathetic.

But hey, a win is a win, right? At least they got the dub.

@ Detroit Pistons, W, 125-121

• Suns 3PAr: 29.1%
• Suns 3PT%: 28.0%

Despite recording season lows in both three-point attempts and makes, the Suns found their rhythm by leaning into the mid-range game, fueled by Kevin Durant’s 36 points and Devin Booker’s 35.

The Nick Richards era officially tipped off Saturday afternoon, and his debut didn’t disappoint. Making his first appearance with the Suns, Richards delivered a statement performance: 21 points, 11 rebounds, 4 offensive boards, all off the bench. Facing a feisty Detroit squad that had won 7 of their last 9 games, the Suns held their ground against a bruising center rotation and came out on top.

Detroit took its first L of the day, but for the Motor City, it wouldn’t be the last…

Week 13: 36.5% 3PAr, 38.7 3PT%

Let’s look at your weekly graph to see how the trendline is looking for Phoenix this season.

Throughout the season, we’ve closely monitored the Suns’ three-point rate and shooting percentage, with the game in Detroit marking one of their worst showings by those metrics. Yet, despite their struggles from beyond the arc, they managed to grind out a gritty, hard-fought win. It’s a reminder that three-point shooting, while crucial in today’s NBA, isn’t everything.

The downward trend in their three-point rate continues. Why? Because, as I’ve pointed out before and will keep emphasizing, Coach Budenholzer is adapting his strategy to fit this roster. A roster that thrives in the mid-range. He’s allowing his mid-range maestros to operate in the spaces where they’re most effective.

For Kevin Durant, a 9-foot jumper is as close to automatic as it gets. It’s practically a layup. Why force him into taking more threes when his efficiency in other areas defies conventional analytics? It’s a rare case where the math doesn’t math.

As the Suns’ reliance on three-pointers decreases, their win total keeps climbing. Sometimes, adapting to the strengths of your players rather than sticking rigidly to the numbers is what it takes to turn a season around.

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Week 14 is here, bringing another three-game slate against the Eastern Conference.

Phoenix starts off in Cleveland, facing a Cavaliers team with a staggering 35-6 record. Yes, you read that right. This squad resembles the 2021-22 Suns. A team with rock-solid chemistry that knows exactly who and what they are. They’re playing inspired basketball and will undoubtedly be a tough test for Phoenix.

Adding to the challenge, Cleveland is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder a couple of games back, so expect them to vent their frustration on the Suns. One matchup to watch: Nick Richards squaring off against Jarrett Allen, which should provide a compelling look at how Phoenix’s new center handles elite competition.

Things lighten up as Phoenix wraps up their five-game road trip on Wednesday in Brooklyn. The Nets sit at 14-28 and have embraced their rebuild, making them sellers at the trade deadline. Former Sun Cameron Johnson is a hot commodity on the market, and while I wish him well, I’m hoping he stays in the East. Watching him light it up for a Western Conference rival? My heart just can’t take that.

The week closes at home on Saturday against the Wizards, the same team the Suns let feel a little too good about themselves last week. Let’s hope Phoenix comes out locked in and delivers four quarters of focused basketball. After all, we’d all like to kick back and enjoy a stress-free Saturday night.

A solid 43% of the community nailed it last week, calling a ‘2-1’ record for the Suns. Bravo, you clairvoyant geniuses. And then there were the two brave souls who predicted an 0-3 week. How dare you? The audacity! Let’s toss our guesses in the ring for this week. Let the chaos reign. Have a great week, everyone!