Tracking 40, Week 3: Developing an identity

It’s not a fad. The Phoenix Suns’ three-point shooting is here to stay.

Three weeks into the NBA season, we are reminded that highs exist as do lows.

Highs for the Phoenix Suns? Winning clutch games against rivals. That feeling of elation when, despite Luka flopping like an 8-inch square piece of technology encased in a lightweight plastic shell that stored data for your Apple IIGS, your team pulls one out in the final seconds and the team leaves Dallas with a win in their pocket. Rumor has it Luka is in a hotel lobby somewhere childishly complaining about not receiving enough scented body lotion and is doing so with his arms raised in disgust and his patented “I just smelled a fart” look of disdain. I pity every front desk clerk on the Mavs schedule.

Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

And then there are lows.

Hearing the news of Kevin Durant being injured on a perfectly picturesque Saturday afternoon. Part of being a Suns fan is knowing the other shoe will drop at any time. It’s not all doom and gloom in this case — we are 10 games into the season and the team has performed well enough to have a buffer while KD gets better. But it is a reminder that injuries happen and they can change the trajectory of your season in the blink of a Tweet.

Week 3 was another good one for the Phoenix Suns, and we continue our weekly check-in to see how this team is performing relative to three-point rate (the number of shots they are taking from beyond the arc) and three-point percentage. While being a part of the 40/40 club does not ensure winning, it shows a shift in this team’s foundational approach under head coach Mike Budenholzer.

How did Week 3 unfold?

Week 3 Record: 3-1

Philadelphia 76ers, W, 118-116

• Suns 3PAr: 39.0%
• Suns 3PT%: 34.4%

Phoenix opened the week at home with — get this — a close game against the 76ers. Paul George returned for Philly, but his presence wasn’t enough to move the ball over the goal line for the 76ers, as Phoenix won 118-116. It was Durant’s 15 points in the fourth that propelled the Suns to victory.

The Suns had a season-low 39% 3PAr (three-point attempt rate) in this game, which has become somewhat comical, seeing as their best season ever was in 2020-21 when they had a 39.2% 3PAr.

Miami Heat, W, 115-112

• Suns 3PAr: 51.2%
• Suns 3PT%: 41.9%

It was a 40/40 night for Phoenix as they hosted the Heat on Wednesday, once again led by Kevin Durant in the fourth to notch a “W” in the win column. Jusuf Nukric helped the three-point numbers with his 3-of-3 performance, including a buzzer-beating 28-footer.

Stephen Nurkic? It appeared so this week!

Dallas Mavericks, W, 114-113

• Suns 3PAr: 45.3%
• Suns 3PT%: 38.5%

Oh, those pesky Mavs. Going on the road to face Dallas in the Luka Lair, where flops and flails are a way of life and the dough is always rising, is always a rough challenge. The Suns went up by 10 points in the first quarter, and after having a lead as high as 14 points, held on for dear life to get the victory.

It came down to Nurkic at the line for a pair of three-throws, and after missing the first, we all felt our hearts sink to our abdomens. But a made shot and a wild Luka three-point attempt sealed the deal in Big D.

Sacramento Kings, L, 122-118 OT

• Suns 3PAr: 54.3%
• Suns 3PT%: 31.6%

The three were a-flyin’ against the Kings but they just weren’t falling. This is where the old saying “live by the three, die by the three” comes into play. Phoenix set a franchise record with 57 three-point attempts in the game but connected on just 18 of them, tying for the 30th most makes in team history.

Phoenix hits one here or one there, and this game doesn’t get to OT.

Week 3: 47.9% 3PAr, 36.3 3PT%

The Suns’ overall three-point attempt rate dipped this past week, largely because Mike Budenholzer identified attacking the interior as the key to defeating the Sixers. That game marked the only time the Suns outscored their opponent in the paint this season, winning that battle 56-36. In every other matchup, their preference for the three-point shot has led to them being outscored in the paint.

Their three-point percentage remained relatively unchanged compared to last week.

Looking at how Phoenix stacks up with the rest of the NBA on the season:

Top 5 3PAr in the NBA:

1. Boston Celtics: 56.2%
2. Charlotte Hornets: 50.2%
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: 48.9%
4. Phoenix Suns: 48.0%
5. Brooklyn Nets: 46.4%

Top 5 3PT% in the NBA:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 42.2%
2. Denver Nuggets: 40.4%
3. New York Knicks: 39.5%
4. Golden State Warriors: 39.5%
5. Minnesota Timberwolves: 39.3%

The Suns currently rank as the 9th-best three-point shooting team in the league, connecting on 37.4% of their attempts.

As for year-to-date numbers for members of the Suns:

Top 5 3PAr on the Suns (minimum 5 games played):

1. Grayson Allen: 75.8%
2. Ryan Dunn: 70.6%
3. Royce O’Neale: 59.2%
4. Tyus Jones: 52.2%
5. Bradley Beal: 49.5%

Top 5 3PT% on the Suns (minimum 5 games played):

1. Royce O’Neale: 48.9%
2. Kevin Durant: 42.9%
3. Tyus Jones: 42.6%
4. Ryan Dunn: 36.1%
5. Bradley Beal: 35.8%

Devin Booker sits at sixth on the team, shooting 32.1% from beyond the arc, despite leading in volume with 8.1 attempts per game. Not an ideal percentage. Grayson Allen, who led the NBA in three-point shooting last season, is also struggling, hitting just 31.9% on 5.9 attempts per game.

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Week 4 features a challenging four-game road trip for the Suns, with stops in Utah, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, and Minnesota. Two of those matchups — against the Jazz on Tuesday and the Thunder on Friday — are part of the NBA Cup. The road doesn’t get any easier for Phoenix, but that’s par for the course in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Notably, the Suns’ three-point attempt rate is higher on the road at 41.4%, compared to 38.1% at home, so expect more shots from beyond the arc. With Kevin Durant sidelined and his 27.6 points per game absent, the team will need to find creative ways to fill that offensive gap. Expect the three-ball to be a part of that strategy.