Tracking 40, Week 4: Suns plus injuries equals losses

The math is simple. And it simply hurts.

This past week served as a stark reminder of what happens when $101.4 million in payroll sits on the sidelines. It also highlighted the inherent risk of constructing a roster around three max-contract players, two of whom are in their 30s and one with a history of injuries. When the injury bug bites, as it has for the Phoenix Suns, the carriage can swiftly turn back into a pumpkin.

Week 4 was a pumpkin.

Just a week ago, we were celebrating the Suns’ strong 8-2 start. Now, just days later, injuries have cast a shadow, and doubt is starting to creep in. Sure, had either Kevin Durant or Bradley Beal been healthy, the Suns might have returned home with a winning road trip. But that’s the issue with this team, and it always will be. While every NBA team faces challenges with injuries, a top-heavy roster lacking its star resources is bound to struggle, no matter what philosophy you try to instill.

You feel it, don’t you? The narrative is slowly beginning to shift. My narrative is beginning to shift. I’ve been attempting to be as optimistic as possible this season, but that kick in the groin yesterday still has my stomach in knots. IYKYK. The Suns are 9-5, but that little thing we try our best to avoid conversing about — the injuries — is creating doubts. Will it be ever constant? Will that be the subtext of the 2024-25 season? I’m drifting to the darkness..

Despite the injuries, we’ve been tracking the Suns’ three-point output this season, and they have remained true to form. They’re still launching them. But the percentage goes down when your best players are out, and confidence waivers for those who typically are ancillary players but are now asked to carry more weight. We’ll talk about Royce O’Neale later…

Here is your Week4 recap.

Week 4 Record: 1-3

Utah Jazz, W, 120-112

• Suns 3PAr: 45.3%
• Suns 3PT%: 46.2%

The Suns started their week strong with a win over the Jazz, securing their first NBA Cup victory of the season, thanks to a standout performance by Devin Booker. He scored 31 points, showcasing an impressive 45% three-point attempt rate and 55.6% accuracy from beyond the arc.

However, games like this have been rare for Booker so far this season. This marked only the fourth time he has joined the 40/40 club. When a team adopts such a high-standard style as a core strategy, you’d expect one of its star players to lead the charge consistently. Unfortunately, Booker has yet to do so.

Sacramento Kings, WL, 127-104

• Suns 3PAr: 44.3%
• Suns 3PT%: 30.2%

An undermanned Phoenix team battled hard in this matchup, staying true to Coach Budenholzer’s three-point-heavy philosophy. However, the starting lineup struggled to find their rhythm from beyond the arc, shooting a disappointing 6-of-29 (20.6%).

Meanwhile, the bench unit stepped up and provided the spark Phoenix needed, shooting an impressive 7-of-14 (50%) from deep. Their sharpshooting kept the Suns competitive. But the gap between the starters’ and bench’s shooting underscores a bigger issue: if Phoenix wants to lock in wins, they need consistent outside shooting from their key players.

Oklahoma City Thunder, L, 99-83

• Suns 3PAr: 49.3%
• Suns 3PT%: 24.3%

Some may credit the Thunder’s defense, and after a win like this, their defensive metrics look even better. But that’s not what it was in OKC. This Suns, for lack of better phraseology, played like shit. They shot like shit. It wasn’t the defensive pressure of the Thunder that caused it. They simply shot the ball like shit. Historically.

The Suns struggled mightily from beyond the arc against the Thunder, shooting just 7-of-27 (25.9%) on wide-open three-point attempts—shots with no defender within six feet. Out of their 37 total three-point attempts, 73% were wide open, yet they couldn’t capitalize on those opportunities.

Minnesota Timberwolves, L, 120-117

• Suns 3PAr: 54.3%
• Suns 3PT%: 31.6%

Just…ugh. The Suns let a lead on the road slip away in the fourth. 7 turnovers in the fourth quarter led to 12 points for the Timberwolves, and when the clutch moments came, the Suns could not match the talent on the other side of the ball.

You’ve seen the shot. You have your opinion on whether or not it was a push-off. It doesn’t matter what you think. It goes down as a win for the Wolves regardless.

Week 4: 43.7% 3PAr, 36.0 3PT%

Attempts and efficiency both fell this week, as did the Suns winning percentage. While it’s too early to tell if the two are co-related — again, injuries — it is an interesting trend.

With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal out, you need guys who are typically role players to step up. Royce O’Neale falls into that category. Royce began the season as someone Phoenix could rely upon to come in and play lockdown defense, all whilst using his quick trigger ability to knock down three-pointers and support the Budenholzer philosophy.

In the first three weeks of the season, O’Neale showcased impressive shooting, averaging 48.9% from deep on 4.5 attempts per game with a three-point attempt rate of 59.2%. However, in Week 4, when the Suns needed him to maintain that level of efficiency, O’Neale’s performance dipped significantly. Although his three-point attempt rate rose to 61.3%, his accuracy plummeted to just 26.3%. The increased volume was there, but the sharp decline in efficiency was a setback.

Perhaps it was due to being on the road, where role players often struggle without the energy of a home crowd and the support of their fan base. But with injuries plaguing the Suns, the team needed stronger performances from Royce O’Neale. And they simply didn’t get them.

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In Week 5, the pace slows down a bit for the Suns. While the week kicks off with the second night of a back-to-back as they face the Orlando Magic tonight at 7:00 PM, there’s only one more game on the schedule: a Wednesday matchup at home against the Knicks. After that, they won’t play again until the following Tuesday, when they take on the Lakers to start — yes, you guessed it — another back-to-back.

One advantage for the Suns is that tonight’s game against the Magic marks the beginning of a six-game homestand. They won’t hit the road again until December 5. Let’s hope the comfort of their own 1,000-thread count sheets treats them well because they could use a little home-court reprieve.