As teams begin reporting for mandatory minicamp, the lull of the NFL offseason drags on. Thank goodness for DraftKings, where the time has come to exploit some of the best season-long receiving props. I have found four receiver prop bets that will pay.
Receiver Prop Bets Sure to Pay for 2024 NFL Season
Travis Kelce – Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (+110)
Some think Kelce caught the Swiftie fever last year, leading to his decline, and in the first season, he missed 1000 yards receiving since 2015. However, a fresh contract tells me Kelce is more than focused and ready to help Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs pursue another Super Bowl.
The last time Kelce had less than 901 receiving yards was in 2015. In his sophomore season where he saw 100 targets for the first time in his NFL career and totaled 875 receiving yards. Despite his down year last season, he still saw a healthy 8.1 targets per game and 8.1 yards per target. Both top-10 among tights end. Plus, both metrics closely aligned with the prior two seasons, where he eclipsed 1100 receiving yards. Missing week one due to a hyperextended knee was the main reason he missed his 8th straight 1000-yard season.
As far as competition goes, Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy are in the fold now. Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are out. There is still a major unknown with regard to Rashee Rice’s legal situation. But the competition for targets is really no different than we see almost every year from the Chiefs. Kelce will remain the primary, 100-plus, and most trusted target for Mahomes. Smash the over on 900.5 receiving yards! This maybe the easiest of the receiver prop bets there is.
CeeDee Lamb – Over 1350.5 Receiving Yards (+110)
CeeDee Lamb is currently trying to take advantage of a red-hot wide receiving market. And for good reason, after the Justin Jefferson contract. Lamb is coming off a monster 181 target and 1749-yard season. He also has three straight seasons of 1100-plus yards receiving now under his belt. Despite these results, he has more to prove than ever before seemingly.
Lamb may have one of the best opportunities in recent fantasy history to repeat as the number one fantasy option at their position. The Dallas Cowboys have done almost nothing to bring in any competition of note. Jake Ferguson and Brandon Cooks remain, and then a mess of unproven talent, including third-year wide receiver Jalen Tolbert, sophomore Luke Schoonmaker, rookie Ryan Flournoy, and speedster Kavontae Turpin. To think his target share won’t hang close to 30% and eclipse 150-targets again would be blind to the circumstances.
His last two seasons with 1749 yards and 1359 yards speak for themselves at how easy the over 1350.5 is to take. He has ranked in those seasons top-ten among wide receivers in air yards, target share, yards after catch and yards per team pass attempt. All stats speak to Lamb being in for another huge volume and receiving stat counting season.
Marvin Harrison – Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+125)
The Arizona Cardinals have needed a franchise wide receiver for too long now. So when they were on the clock, Marvin Harrison Jr. was an easy pick. Especially for a team that targeted wide receivers, the third least in the NFL at 51.3% last season. They have also gone two straight seasons without any type of pass catcher, running back, wide receiver, or tight end, putting up more than six receiving touchdowns.
Harrison was tied for second in the FBS last season with 14 touchdowns. And tied for second the season prior with 12 touchdowns. Harrison clearly has a nose for the end zone and is entering into an offense in desperate need of receiving help. Both catching the ball and finding the end zone.
The oddsmakers seem low on just how vital of a part of this offense Harrison is going to be. Purely based on a blah 2023 offense that predominantly rushed the ball and used tight ends. Throwing an elite wide receiver into the mix with Kyler Murray, who has sustained top-ten passing offenses in the past. It’s easy money to see Harrison find the end zone seven times in his rookie season.
Diontae Johnson – Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+120)
Diontae Johnson has gone for five touchdowns or better in four of five seasons. The one season he missed this mark is a season that will be studied and revisited by fantasy analysts. 147 targets, including a 10th-ranked among wide receivers, 18 of those targets coming in the red zone. Yet no touchdowns. Now, Johnson moves to the Carolina Panthers, where he will become the WR1 and be in line for yet another 100-plus target season. And optimal opportunity to find the end zone.
Johnson is no stranger to lethargic offenses. With the Pittsburgh Steelers, he had a rookie season with Mason Rudolph, the last two seasons of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, and then two seasons of Kenny Pickett. Only two of those five seasons did the passing offense rank in the top 20. So the move to Carolina shouldn’t concern you when considering taking the over on 4.5 touchdowns. A second year for Bryce Young. A bright, young offensive mind in Dave Canales. Johnson, who they traded for, and Adam Thielen are the only established receivers on the roster. Ride the over 4.5 touchdowns as Johnson will achieve the mark for the fifth time in his career.
There are some great season-long receiver prop bets where choosing the underdog will pay. Now is the time to get in on them before the lines start to shift.
DraftKings:
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Main Image: Stephen R. Sylvanie – USA Today Sports
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