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Week 10 Draftkings Plays: Joe Burrow, Marquise Brown, and More

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Week 10 DraftKings Plays

It is so exciting to have real, live NFL football back in our lives. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings every week. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 10 DraftKings plays.

READ MORE: Week 10 Streamers | Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Week 10 DraftKings Plays

Week 9 Recap

It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s good for the readers and helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.

Looking back at Week 9, it was worse than Week 8 from a recommendations standpoint. This week only 52% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way tied at an 80% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear at a 28.6% success rate. Personally, it was not a profitable week this week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get back in the profits in the Week 10 DraftKings plays.

  • Week 9 – $492 → $139 ($353 LOSS)
  • Year Total – $3,383 → $2,704 ($679 LOSS)

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow (CIN) – $6,800 v HOU

Joe Burrow had a rough start to his 2023 campaign after suffering a calf injury in preseason. It looks like that’s completely behind him as he’s scored at least 25 DraftKings points in two straight games coming out of the bye week. Burrow looks completely healthy and has been dicing up tough defenses. Now he gets a nice matchup as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Houston Texans.

The Texans have allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. They are also an offense that can put up points so it’s possible this game turns into a shootout. Vegas seems to agree as the 46.5-point combined total is the second-highest on the slate. In a week where the only other elite quarterback on the slate is Lamar Jackson (who is more than $1,000 more expensive) Burrow looks like one of the best Week 10 DraftKings plays at quarterback this week.

Geno Smith (SEA) – $5,800 v WAS

Geno Smith is another player who has been enduring a rough season. The difference between him and Burrow is that Smith hasn’t turned it around yet. That could change this week when the Seattle Seahawks take on the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are arguably the worst secondary in the NFL right now and have been getting torched every single week. They have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. The Seahawks’ 25.5-point implied team total is one of the highest on the slate this week as well. Everything is setting up for Smith to break out of his funk and have a big game this week. That’s something to take advantage of at this cheaper price tag.

Others to Consider: Baker Mayfield (TB) – $5,100 v TEN, Brock Purdy (SF) – $5,700 @ JAX, Taylor Heinicke (ATL) – $5,100 @ ARI

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – $9,200 @ JAX

I’ve had a rule that goes back for years and it’s this: Any time Christian McCaffrey is less than $10,000, he’s a viable play. It doesn’t even matter the matchup for him as his combination of talent, usage, and scheme is simply too good to ignore. Of course, he’s the most expensive player on this week’s slate but for good reason. McCaffrey is averaging 26.4 DraftKings points per game this season and hasn’t scored fewer than 14.2 DraftKings points in any game. He also scored 51.7 DraftKings points in a game this season. His floor and ceiling are both higher than basically anyone in the NFL. This week’s matchup is not one to fear either as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are middle-of-the-road against opposing running backs and as a defense in general. The game environment itself is good as well. The 49ers have one of the better implied team totals this week at 24.25 points and the combined total is nice as well at 45.5 points.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – $6,200 v HOU

Joe Mixon goes as the Bengals offense goes. There are many fantasy managers who despise Mixon as a fantasy running back because he’s not efficient. That doesn’t matter when he has one of the most valuable roles any running back can have: workhorse running back for one of the best offenses in the NFL. Early this season, that wasn’t necessarily the case. As previously mentioned, Joe Burrow was struggling to start the year and so was the Bengals offense, and therefore Mixon too. Since the bye, Mixon has scored 20.0 and 17.8 DraftKings points.

The Texans aren’t quite the same horrible run defense that they’ve been the past few years but they’ve still allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. Mixon has a 74% snap share and rush attempt share and a 56% route participation. Those rank fifth, first, and seventh respectively among NFL running backs. As previously mentioned, the game environment is great in this one. As a workhorse running back for one of the best offenses in one of the best game environments, Mixon looks like one of the best Week 10 DraftKings plays.

Others to Consider: Rachaad White (TB) – $5,800 v TEN, Bijan Robinson (ATL) – $6,000 @ ARI, Devin Singletary (HOU) – $4,700 @ CIN, Tony Pollard (DAL) – $7,300 v NYG, Austin Ekeler (LAC) – $8,400 v DET

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – $8,600 v HOU

From one Bengal to another, Ja’Marr Chase also looks like one of the best Week 10 DraftKings plays this week. You may be starting to sense a theme that this Bengals offense, and this game in general, is one to target this week heavily. Speaking of heavily targeted, Chase hasn’t had a game this season with less than eight targets. Through eight games, he has 93 targets and a 27% target share. Chase also has an elite air yards share at 41% this year.

He’s coming in a little banged up after a hard fall on his back last game but should be good to go. His teammate, Tee Higgins, is likely not going to play this week with a hamstring injury. That should mean Burrow will look Chase’s way even more. In the only game that Higgins missed, Chase caught 15 of his 19 targets for 192 yards and three touchdowns on his way to 55.2 DraftKings points. Obviously, we can’t expect that type of output, but Chase should be able to put up a big game in this one.

Marquise Brown (ARI) – $5,200 v ATL

Marquise Brown has been sort of the poster boy for “high floor, low ceiling” wide receivers this year. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in more weeks than not but hasn’t topped 17.4 DraftKings points in any week. He’s averaging 12.5 DraftKings points per game this season. Brown has also seen at least seven targets in every game this season aside from Week 1. The nice part for him now (and the rest of the season) is that he gets his quarterback, Kyler Murray, back. That should be a huge boost for his outlook.

Last year when Brown was the alpha wide receiver with Murray, he scored at least 11.8 DraftKings points in all six games. During that span, he averaged 18.8 DraftKings points per game. The matchup this week is solid as well, as the Atlanta Falcons are not a strong defense. The Arizona Cardinals also have a 21-point implied team total and are 1.5-point underdogs despite being at home. This game is also being played in a dome as well so another boost for the passing offenses. Everything sets up for Marquise Brown to have his best game of the season to set up a strong run over the rest of the year.

Others to Consider: Diontae Johnson (PIT) – $5,400 v GB, Rondale Moore (ARI) –  $3,000 v ATL, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) – $4,100 v WAS, Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – $8,300 @ LAC, Tyler Boyd (CIN) – $4,600 v HOU, Tank Dell (HOU) – $5,500 @ CIN

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – $5,000 v NO

It’s pretty crazy to me that T.J. Hockenson’s price went down this week. He’s coming off a game in which he caught seven of his 12 targets for 69 yards and had 13.9 DraftKings points. Sure he doesn’t have Kirk Cousins anymore but the quarterback situation looks better than last week with Joshua Dobbs at the helm. Dobbs is coming off a heroic performance in relief of Jaren Hall and he targets the tight end position heavily and now has one of the best in the NFL.

Hockenson has also now scored double-digit DraftKings points in five straight games now and eight of his nine games this season. He’s averaging 14.6 DraftKings points per game in 2023. The game environment looks solid as well, as the Minnesota Vikings are three-point home underdogs against the New Orleans Saints. That means the projected game script should be in Hockenson’s favor here. This game is also played in a dome so that’s another boost. The fact that his price went down is shocking but it makes Hockenson one of the best Week 10 DraftKings plays.

Trey McBride (ARI) – $3,500 v ATL

It’s a double-dip repeat at tight ends this week. Trey McBride’s price also went down which is crazy to me as well. It’s a little more understandable as he only scored 5.2 DraftKings points last week. It makes sense though as he was playing with Clayton Tune against the best defense in the NFL. A bad game should have been expected. The usage was still strong as McBride had five targets, a 28% target share, 25% TPRR, and 49% air yards share. Those are not only good but elite numbers for a tight end.

This week he gets a far easier matchup against the Falcons. McBride also gets to catch passes from Kyler Murray so that should be a massive upgrade. As previously mentioned, the Cardinals are slight underdogs with a solid implied team total and playing in a dome. That’s a great setup for McBride to get back on track this week.

Others to Consider: Evan Engram (JAX) – $4,500 v SF, Jake Ferguson (DAL) – $4,600 v NYG, Dalton Schultz (HOU) – $4,900 @ CIN

Defense/Special Teams

In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. I advise filling out the rest of your lineup first and then picking your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.

My Tentative Cash Game Lineup

  • QB – Joe Burrow
  • RB – Tony Pollard
  • RB – Joe Mixon
  • WR – Ja’Marr Chase
  • WR – Marquise Brown
  • WR – Tyler Boyd
  • TE – T.J. Hockenson
  • Flex – Trey McBride
  • DST – Cincinnati Bengals

Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 10 DraftKings plays and the best picks for Week 11. Best of luck to everyone and let’s enjoy some football and win some money!

Main Photo: Kareem Elgazzar – USA Today Sports

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