Phoenix Sports Today

Phoenix Sports News Continuously Updated

Week 5 Draftkings Plays: Bijan Robinson, Travis Kelce, and More

by

Week 5 DraftKings

It is so exciting to have real, live NFL football back in our lives. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 5 DraftKings plays.

READ MORE: Week 5 Streamers | Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em | Running Back Rankings

Week 5 DraftKings Plays

Week 4 Recap

It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.

Looking back at Week 4, it was still good but not better than Week 3. This week 52% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way tied at a 100% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver group brought up the rear tied at a 37.5% success rate. Personally, I got back in the profits. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get even better profits in the Week 5 DraftKings plays.

  • Week 4 – $431 → $477 ($46 PROFIT)
  • Year Total – $1,230 → $1,262 ($32 PROFIT)

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – $7,100 v NYG

It’s been a great start to the season for Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins offense. The Dolphins are a truly elite offense and Tagovailoa is averaging 22.9 DraftKings points per game this season which is a top-five mark among all quarterbacks this season. That includes two games in which he scored at least 31 DraftKings points. It helps when you have playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert who have blazing speed and can take any touch to the house. It also helps he has one of the best offensive minds in the league designing the plays.

This week shouldn’t be any different against the lowly New York Giants. The Giants are not a good defense so Tagovailoa and the Dolphins should have no trouble moving the ball and putting points on the board. They currently have the highest implied team total on the slate at 29.5 points and the 47.5-point combined total is one of the highest on the slate as well. It would not be surprising at all to see Tagovailoa post his third 30-point performance in this one.

Joshua Dobbs (ARI) – $5,200 v CIN

I wanted to highlight just how good Joshua Dobbs has been so far this season for the Arizona Cardinals. After a rough opening game, Dobbs has scored 25.2, 17.1, and 23.4 DraftKings points in his last three games. It’s not like those were easy matchups either as he’s faced the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers in his last two games. Those are two of the best defenses in the NFL and he still hasn’t thrown an interception yet.

This week’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals should be much easier than the last two. The Bengals aren’t a pushover but they are mid-pack in terms of DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. The Cardinals are actually three-point underdogs in a game with a 44.5-point combined total so the setup looks nice for Dobbs to continue this production. A sneaky part is that Dobbs has rushed for at least 40 yards in three straight games as well. Everything is coming together to make Dobbs look like one of the better Week 5 DraftKings plays, especially from a point-per-dollar standpoint.

Others to Consider: Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $8,000 @ LAR, Kirk Cousins (MIN) – $6,900 v KC, Anthony Richardson (IND) – $7,000 v TEN

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson (HOU) – $7,700 v HOU

This feels like the week that most Bijan Robinson fantasy managers had circled on the calendar. The Houston Texans have been notorious for allowing huge games to running backs over the last couple of years. This year they’ve only been slightly better but have still allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to running backs so far. That plays directly into what Arthur Smith wants to do with the Atlanta Falcons in terms of running the ball as much as possible. They should be able to do that and do that well in this one.

On top of that, Robinson has been one of the best running backs in the NFL so far as a rookie. He makes highlight plays every single week, making defenders look foolish. Robinson is averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per game this season including three games over 20. He’s extremely involved as a pass catcher too with 22 targets on the season and at least five in all four games. That gives him an extremely high floor. Robinson has that rare combination of a high floor with a massive ceiling and the price is certainly still a value to make him one of the best Week 5 DraftKings plays.

Isiah Pacheco (KC) – $5,700 @ MIN

Heading into the season, Isiah Pacheco was one of my biggest fades at the running back position. So, of course, here we are in Week 5 and he’s getting highlighted as a great play. Pacheco is coming off two straight games scoring a touchdown and two straight games of at least 15 DraftKings points. That includes a 27.8-point game last week. The most encouraging part of Pacheco’s production is his involvement as a pass catcher. He’s already seen 12 targets this season after only seeing 14 targets for the entirety of 2022. If he can continue seeing three targets per week on average, that will massively raise his weekly floor, which was the main concern heading into 2023.

This week he gets a nice matchup against a poor Minnesota Vikings defense. This game has one of the best offensive environments on the entire slate with a 52.5-point combined total. The Kansas City Chiefs‘ 28-point implied team total trails only the Dolphins on this slate. Ultimately, this is a great spot for Pacheco, especially considering the salary hasn’t gone up much at all.

Others to Consider: Kyren Williams (LAR) – $6,700 v PHI, Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – $5,600 v NO, Joe Mixon (CIN) – $6,400 @ ARI, De’Von Achane (MIA) – $6,100 v NYG, Alvin Kamara (NO) – $6,300 @ NE

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill (MIA) – $9,000 v NYG

As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins are set up very nicely this week for another big performance. Tyreek Hill has been Tagovailoa’s top weapon and Hill’s big games have directly correlated with Tagovailoa’s. In Tagovailoa’s two 30-point games, Hill had 33.7 and 47.5 DraftKings points. It could be more of the same this week.

As previously mentioned, the Dolphins have the highest implied team total on the slate. Hill is also averaging 26.6 DraftKings points per game. The Giants’ secondary is not very good and unless they double-team Hill every play, they are going to be in some big trouble. Considering the talent, matchup, and game environment, Hill looks like one of the best Week 5 DraftKings plays this week and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he was the top overall scorer at any position this week.

Marquise Brown (ARI) – $5,000 v CIN

Don’t look now but Marquise Brown is quietly having a very good season. On the year he’s caught 21 of his 32 targets for 239 yards and two touchdowns. Brown is averaging 15 DraftKings points per game including at least 16.6 DraftKings points in three straight games now. Diving even deeper, the underlying metrics back it up too.

Brown has a 96% route participation, 27% target share, 24% TPRR, and 40% air yards share. All of those numbers are very good or even elite levels. As previously mentioned, this is a nice setup and game environment for the Cardinals as slight underdogs in a game with a nice combined total. On top of it, they are playing in a dome, which is another nice boost for passing offenses. There’s no reason to believe that Brown shouldn’t see another 7+ targets and come through with another solid game in this one.

Others to Consider: George Pickens (PIT) – $5,200 v BAL, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) –  $3,000 @ MIA, Adam Thielen (CAR) – $5,100 @ DET, Tyler Boyd (CIN) – $4,500 @ ARI, Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – $7,900 @ ARI, Tank Dell (HOU) – $4,800 @ ATL

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,600 @ MIN

Travis Kelce has been the talk of the NFL for the last two weeks and it’s had nothing to do with football. Taylor Swift’s beau has also been producing well enough on the field too. Over the last three weeks, he’s scored 12.6, 19.9, and 12.0 DraftKings points. It hasn’t been the massive, vintage “Travis Kelce” performances we’ve grown accustomed to but it’s still been good. He’s also seen 27 targets in that span. This certainly looks like it might be a perfect time for a monster performance.

As previously mentioned, the Chiefs are facing the Vikings in arguably the best offensive environment on the slate. This game has the highest combined total and the Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total. This game is also being played in a dome, a nice boost for passing offenses. The Vikings offense is good enough to push the Chiefs into a shootout and Kelce’s salary hasn’t risen. Add it all up and he looks like one of the best Week 5 DraftKings plays.

Zach Ertz (ARI) – $3,500 v CIN

A third Cardinal in the recommendations this week?!? You might be asking if I’m crazy at this point but it’s all based around salaries and they are simply far too cheap for the production they’ve been providing so far. Zach Ertz actually leads the NFL in target share (25%) among all tight ends. His 23% air yards share trails only Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller, which might be the most shocking of all these stats.

Ertz is one of only eight tight ends with at least an 80% route participation this season. His 27% TPRR trails only Kelce among full-time tight ends. Ertz is only averaging 8.4 DraftKings points per game this season but that’s because he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet. He’s seen at least eight targets in three of his four games and caught at least six passes in those three as well. He’s also scored at least eight DraftKings points in three of four games and at least 11 in two of four. It’s safe to say Ertz is far too cheap given the usage.

Others to Consider: Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) – $3,200 @ IND, Dallas Goedert (PHI) – $4,200 @ LAR, Mark Andrews (BAL) – $5,500 @ PIT

Defense/Special Teams

In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.

My Tentative Cash Game Lineup

  • QB – Tua Tagovailoa
  • RB – Joe Mixon
  • RB – De’Von Achane
  • WR – Tyler Boyd
  • WR – Marquise Brown
  • WR – Wan’Dale Robinson
  • TE – Travis Kelce
  • Flex – Ja’Marr Chase
  • DST – Tennessee Titans

Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 5 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 6. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!

Universal Responsible Gambling Disclaimer: Ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Main Photo: Chris Pedota – USA Today Sports

The post Week 5 Draftkings Plays: Bijan Robinson, Travis Kelce, and More appeared first on Last Word on Pro Football.