In the first seven weeks of the NFL season, there was only one game in which a team was favored by double digits. That occurred in Week 4 when the 49ers were 10.5-points favorites over the Patriots. They covered the spread, but the number of games (19) with one-score spreads resulted in 17 underdogs covering and 11 winning the game outright.
That trend has been reversed in the last two weeks as the underdog record was only 2-4 and neither won the game. Two of the losses had lines of more than one score.
Last week, Jess Root edged a game ahead of me when he selected the Raiders to cover against the Rams and I absurdly went with the Panthers to cover against the Commanders rather than go with the game Jess picked.
The 2-4 record the last two weeks has lowered the overall record to a still impressive 19-6 ATS by big underdogs.
This week is also a big change after there being only two weeks in the first seven that featured five eligible games (6.5 points or more). Week 8 has seven eligible games with three of double digits and one more than one score.
- Lions -11 vs. Tennessee
- Chiefs -10 at Raiders
- Broncos -10 vs. Panthers
- Ravens -9 at Browns
- Jets -7 at Patriots
- Chargers -7 vs. Saints
- Steelers -6.5 vs Giants
Jess is dropping the bomb on the Ravens, believing the Browns will find a way to cover with Jameis Winston at quarterback. I am casting my lot with the Raiders, despite a three-game losing streak in which they’ve scored a total of 46 points.
STANDINGS AFTER SEVEN WEEKS
Jess: 5-2 (2 direct hits)
Howard: 4-3 (1 direct hit)
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