3 reasons why Arizona men’s basketball will or won’t make the NCAA Tournament

Arizona men’s basketball enters the start of Big 12 play in an unfamiliar position. The Wildcats are currently on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble and have no quality wins to their name.

For a program whose focus is on advancing to the Final Four and competing for national championships, the idea of missing the Big Dance entirely is an uncomfortable thought for fans.

Arizona’s presence in March Madness is usually a foregone conclusion by the time January rolls around. After all, Arizona has only missed the NCAA Tournament four times since 1984-85 and the most recent absence came after a self-imposed postseason ban.

Under coach Tommy Lloyd, Arizona has been a top two seed in each of the last three seasons. The Wildcats began this year ranked in the Associated Press top 10 and were expected to again compete for a top seed.

Instead, Arizona flunked each non-conference test against Quad 1 opponents, losing at Wisconsin, home against Duke, in the Battle4Atlantis to Oklahoma and West Virginia and on a neutral court in Phoenix to UCLA.

Entering Big 12 Conference with a 6-5 record means the Wildcats will likely need to go .500 or better in league play to earn an at-large bid.

With several quality opponents on the schedule, Arizona can more than make up for its poor nonconference showing between now and March. On the other hand, the rigors of the schedule could send Arizona’s season sideways and put the Wildcats in must-win mode when the Big 12 Tournament comes around.

Below are three reasons why Arizona will or won’t make the NCAA Tournament.

Why Arizona will make the NCAA Tournament

Strength of the Big 12 Conference

Arizona’s transition to the Big 12 was expected to elevate the conference’s portfolio, and in due time, that will surely be the case. But for now, it’s the Big 12 that can help Arizona’s position.

Arizona should benefit mightily playing in a league that carries a strong reputation and boasts seven programs rated in KenPom’s Top 25 (No. 4 Houston, No. 5 Iowa State, No. 8 Kansas, No. 13 Texas Tech, No. 20 Cincinnati, No. 22 Baylor and No. 24 Arizona).

Arizona will have around a dozen opportunities in Big 12 play to earn Quad 1 wins, which the NCAA Selection Committee values in selections and seeding.

Even with their current 0-5 record versus Quad 1 opponents, the Wildcats are still just outside the top 25 in the NCAA NET rankings. If Arizona can pick up four or five Quad 1 wins, that will go a long way come March.

The Wildcats will likely need to go 11-9 in Big 12 play (17-14 overall) to feel good about their postseason chances. Keep this in mind: Since 2015, every Big 12 team with a .500 conference record or better has made the NCAA Tournament.

Players developing into roles

Arizona at times this season has looked like a collection of talented players who lack any real identity when they’re on the court together. That’s partly the product of losing four starters from a season ago and replacing them primarily with transfers.

It’s been a steep learning curve for the likes of Trey Townsend, Tobe Awaka, Anthony Dell’Orso and freshman Carter Bryant, accentuated by Arizona’s grueling nonconference schedule. Returners Caleb Love and KJ Lewis have sometimes looked out of sync on offense, while Henri Veesaar is adapting to a bigger role in place of the injured Motiejus Krivas.

As the season progress, players’ roles will solidify, leading (hopefully) to more cohesion on both sides of the floor. Love in particular has looked more like assertive self in Arizona’s past two games, which should help restore his confidence.

Arizona’s defensive identity is coming into focus, too. The Wildcats, after struggling to defend the perimeter through much of the nonconference, held UCLA to 4 of 21 from 3-point range two weeks ago. They followed that up with two dynamite defensive outings, including a historic performance against Central Michigan.

This is a team that needed time to gel.

Breaks will eventually go Arizona’s way

There’s no denying that Arizona has let games get away this season. Whether it’s Love missing a game-tying 3-pointer against Oklahoma, losing to West Virginia in overtime, or the offense going cold vs. UCLA, Arizona hasn’t gotten any big breaks yet this season.

There’s data to back that up. KenPom’s Luck rating, defined as “the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record,” ranks Arizona 362nd in the nation, ahead of only two programs.

Arizona’s outcomes in tight games, in a sense, can’t get any worse. That might not be especially reassuring right now, but probability is on Arizona’s side to pull out some close wins going forward.

Why Arizona won’t make the NCAA Tournament

If you’ve made it this far, you must not be convinced Arizona is an NCAA Tournament team. And you probably have good reasons for feeling that way. Here are a few of mine.

An underperforming offense

Anyone who watched Arizona’s offense turn anemic over the last several minutes of the UCLA loss has reason to doubt whether Lloyd has the right pieces in place to compete in the gauntlet that is the Big 12.

Arizona’s personnel changes were expected to address weaknesses that hobbled the Wildcats down the stretch of last season, including inconsistent point guard play and subpar 3-point shooting.

So far, Arizona is measurably worse than previous Lloyd-coached teams at distributing the ball and perimeter shooting.

Arizona is assisting on 56 percent of field goals, which ranks No. 94 in the nation. In Lloyd’s first two seasons, Arizona was top 5 in the country in that category at around 65 percent.

The Wildcats are actually shooting better from 2-point range than any of Lloyd’s first three teams, but Arizona is shooting a putrid 30.7 percent on 3-pointers. That’s by far the worst 3-point shooting percentage in the Big 12; league leaders Houston and Texas Tech by comparison are making over 40 percent of their 3s.

In Arizona’s five losses, opponents have outscored the UA by an average 15 points on 3-pointers.

Grueling Big 12 schedule

The level of difficulty for Arizona’s first spin around the Big 12 was always going to be a step up from the Pac-12 given the competitiveness of the new league compared with the Conference of Champions.

It’s not just the increase in competition that Arizona must prepare for, it’s the way the Big 12 schedules homestands and road trips.

Over the last couple decades, Arizona fans were accustomed to the routine of the team playing two games at home followed by two on the road with the home-and-away series with ASU thrown in there.

This is how Arizona’s schedule plays out from the start of February to the conclusion of the regular season: Away, Away, Home, Away, Home, Away, Home, Home, Away, Home, Away.

Arizona will have to navigate this schedule while playing in tougher road venues than any it faced in the Pac-12. The aforementioned stretch includes games at BYU, Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas and home matchups vs. Texas Tech and Houston.

For a team that has little margin for error, the difficulty of the conference schedule could be what keeps Arizona from making a run at an NCAA Tournament bid.

Lack of interior depth

It appears that Arizona will be without Krivas for the foreseeable future, which is a cause for concern as conference play ramps up.

Veesaar gives Arizona a respectable presence at the 5 position and deserves patience as he adjusts to playing more minutes than was expected of him earlier this season.

However, it’s hard to envision Veesaar and Awaka giving Arizona enough interior offensive contribution when they’re facing Big 12 defenses on a game-by-game basis. Furthermore, freshman Emmanuel Stephen is an exciting prospect but realistically isn’t somebody the staff will want to throw into the mix most nights.

The absence of Krivas will wear down Arizona’s bigs over the course of conference play and put more pressure on Arizona’s guards, who’ve already proven their limitations shooting the ball.