The schedule poster for Arizona Football’s 2024 season had a tag line at the top:
The Next Chapter Begins
Umm, burning books is cool now, right? Because not only should this chapter end, but the book in which it is contained should be reduced to ash, never to be read again.
Ostensibly the theme was about not only the program’s transition into the Big 12 Conference, but also its first season under new head coach Brent Brennan. Suffice to say neither has gone well or according to plan.
Heading into the rivalry game against ASU things could not look more bleak in Tucson, especially juxtaposed with what is happening in Tempe. Whereas one year ago it was the Wildcats who were among the nation’s best teams, this year it is ASU who is trying to play in the Big 12 title game and possibly land in the playoffs.
Whereas one year ago it was ASU fans who were forced to watch their undermanned and talent-deficient team get dominated at home, it looks pretty likely the favor will be returned this year for Arizona fans for whom the only hope is that a team that has struggled to look competent most of the season can beat a Top-15 team to close things out.
Could it happen? Yes. Aside from the classic “anything can happen in a rivalry game” narrative that is generally a phrase uttered by those who root for the lesser team, this ASU team is hardly dominant. Their record is good and earned, but the Sun Devils are 6-1 in one-score games and have a +7.7 point differential, which is the lowest of every team that still has a chance to win the conference.
Compare that to last year’s Arizona team that that was just 3-3 in one-score games en route to 10 wins (ie: they blew out a lot of opponents) along with a +13.5 point differential and you can make the case that even though the records between the teams are a bit of a mirror from last year, the quality of each is not.
ASU is not as good as Arizona was last year and, one could argue, Arizona — injuries and all — is at least a bit more talented than ASU was last season.
And of course Arizona is at home this weekend, where it has been competitive in all but one contest. The line for this game opened around ASU-8.5 and we’ll see where it is at kickoff, but last year Arizona was -12.5 (and won by 36).
Last year’s Arizona team would beat this year’s ASU team, probably by a comfortable margin. But as nice a thought as that may be, it’s also meaningless. This year’s Sun Devils are not great, they are certainly better than this year’s Wildcats.
So while Arizona could win the game, don’t get your hopes up because it’s probably not going to happen. And even if it does, all it would do is provide a fun, enjoyable, hilarious end to a season that will long be remembered for how bad of a let down it was.
Even with a win Saturday Arizona would still have to reconcile with wasting as much talent as it did during a season that was oh-so-crucial to the program’s long-term hopes. Success post-Jedd Fisch would have provided a bit of staying power along with belief that the upward trajectory did not need to reverse course just because the coach left town.
Instead Brennan and his staff bumbled their way to a season that really can’t end soon enough, even with the fear (threat?) of an offseason that could absolutely decimate the roster.
Good times, these are not. The question is if better times are on the horizon.
It’s difficult to say they are right now. A coaching change, whether warranted or not, does not appear imminent. Key players like Tetairoa McMillan, Tacario Davis, Jonah Savaiinaea and Tyler Loop are likely off to the NFL, whereas other players are going to be out of eligibility. Others are certainly going to enter the portal and explore their options, and given the team’s on-field struggles it will be nerve wracking to see which choose to leave or, in recruits’ case, don’t ever make it to campus.
Conversely, with fewer returning players Arizona could have plenty of snaps to offer in the portal, with the coaching staff being able to really attack the initial portal window in a way it was unable to one year ago. The transfer portal is something Brennan and his assistants had to contend with last year, with their late arrival coming after the winter window and during a time when Arizona’s players were free to leave. This time (assuming they are still around) there will be an opportunity to if not conquer the portal, at least utilize it to add to and supplement the roster.
As Arizona’s opponent this week has shown, success in the portal could beget success on the field so long as the right coaches are in place to help make it happen.
Arizona does not have the right coaches in place, not this year. The offseason will bring change with the roster and it must also lead to some movement on the staff.
That is all likely to happen almost immediately after the season’s end, as it is imperative the ‘Cats get a head start on not only rebuilding their staff, but also have everything in place for the initial transfer portal window.
All of that, from the changes on the staff to the rebuilding of the roster, will begin as soon as the clock hits all zeroes Saturday in Tucson. Maybe Arizona will have pulled off the upset, but even if they do or in the likely event that the Cats lose and allow the Territorial Cup Trophy to make the trek up the 10 to Tempe this game will put an end to one of the most disappointing chapters in program history.
It’s one that most can’t wait to turn the page from, even being unsure of what’s coming next.