Expectations.
None of us knew what the Big 12 would bring Arizona, but at the very least most of us felt going into last fall both the football team and men’s basketball team would compete for their respective conference titles.
I guess one out of two ain’t bad.
We know what happened in football, with the team imploding and finishing as one of the country’s biggest disappointments while a different team from the 48th state, the ASU Sun Devils, won the conference and earned a playoff berth.
No one expected any of that.
Basketball is a different story. After a bumpy nonconference slate Tommy Lloyd’s team appears to have righted its ship in-conference and is just a game back of first, whereas ASU—despite having what is most likely its most expensive and talented roster ever—is languishing near the bottom of the standings.
It’s good to know there are still some certainties we can count on in this crazy world.
But that’s the thing about expectations. It’s great when your team meets or exceeds them and terrible when it falls well short. Of course when discussing where a team landed with regards to what most thought they would it’s important to remember who thought they’d get there and why they thought that.
Football was coming off an historic season and returned a good chunk of the roster, yet it had lost most of the coaching staff, its recruiting class and some quality players to both the NFL and the transfer portal.
In many ways their being unable to be the team many of us thought they’d be should have been, well, expected.
Then there’s basketball, which has for a long time now been one of the better programs in the country. Sure they were being forced to replace four starters from last season but Lloyd, like the coach he succeeded, has proven adept at rebuilding and retooling to be competitive year in and year out.
Even after the rough start to the season in many ways, being good should have been expected.
Then of course there is ASU, whose football team surprised everyone in winning most every close game it played en route to a great season and now has a basketball team that despite a greatly improved NIL situation (thanks to a documentary that isn’t Bad Sport?) and the landing of some high-profile recruits has lost seven of its last 11 games and is, as per usual, battling just to be on the bubble.
All four programs have had different Big 12 experiences, and each school would seem to have something to brag about as well as something to laugh at regarding their rival.
But if you’re an Arizona fan, and chances are if you’re still reading by this point you are, then you should take solace in the knowledge that for your programs the good is sustainable whereas the bad is likely to improve.
Not to say football will finish near the top of the standings next year and for the foreseeable future, but the offseason has provided the kind of news necessary to believe better days are indeed ahead. The coaching staff hires have been about as good as could have hoped, the transfer portal has been fruitful and plenty of key players are set to return. And while ASU certainly has plenty to feel good about, maintaining the level they reached last season is likely to prove to be incredibly difficult.
Surely to say, however, while basketball may not be the biggest fish in its new conference it is clear the Wildcats belong in the pond, which is known for its quality hoops. Given that Arizona is a destination program, recruiting should always be a strength and the transfer portal will always be there to provide.
This takes us to Saturday’s matchup in Tempe.
You have the surging Wildcats, coming off a thrilling home win over No. 3 Iowa State visiting the Sun Devils, who have been banged up and just squeaked by on the road at Colorado, which is winless in conference play.
The standings and metrics all point to Arizona being the superior team, and the expectation is that the Wildcats will leave McKale North with its fifth straight win in the building and push Lloyd’s record against the in-state rival to 7-1, with the only loss being a fluke where the Devils needed a half-court shot as the buzzer sounded to win.
Oh, right.
Anyway since Lloyd took over prior to the 2021-22 season the average score between the teams is 83-67, so in many ways the gap between the programs is pretty substantial. That’s not say the Sun Devils can’t beat the Wildcats, who even during their great stretch of play have gone through scoring droughts and had some struggles. Further, this is still one of the more talented teams Bobby Hurley has had in Tempe, one with size, athleticism and some shooting.
If only they had a coach who ran an offense, perhaps …
Oh well, that’s their problem. It shouldn’t matter, not to a good Arizona team. A good Arizona team will not suffer a letdown following the win over Iowa State, not allow the emotions of that night and the week of highlights and praise to soften them or impact their effort.
A good Arizona team will do what so many have done before it, and that’s go into Tempe and leave with a win. It will play hard and smart against an overmatched opponent, maybe not blowing them out for 40 minutes but pulling away before putting the game away in the second half.
Guaranteed to happen? No, but it’s expected.