What kind of team do the Wildcats want to be?
To say Arizona has not been playing its best basketball to end the regular season would be an understatement.
After following a sluggish start to the season with the kind of stretch that saw them climb in the rankings and instill confidence that maybe this team could make a deep run in March, the Cats wrapped up Big 12 play with losses in five of their last eight games.
While none of the defeats were to bad teams—all of Kansas State, Houston, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas are at least decent—and three of them were close until the end, worrying is why the team has been coming up short.
Brian Pedersen broke it down here, but suffice to say the very numbers that loved the Cats during their early-season slump are not nearly as favorable.
Woof.
From both a talent and aesthetic perspective, this version of Arizona was not the best we’ve seen in recent years. But what it lacked in offensive firepower and explosiveness it made up for in toughness and defense, traits that when present will give the team a chance to win any game it plays.
When lacking, as we’ve seen, wins are tough to come by.
So the question is, have the Cats been figured out and exposed or is it just an opponent-adjusted rough patch that can be weathered before the elimination games begin?
The former is likely to lead to an early exit, whereas the latter could portend a thrilling run.
The good news is, at least in theory, while shooting can take a night off defense doesn’t have to. The bad news is the Cats have been torched by different types of offenses, ranging from BYU’s launching of threes and whatever ASU calls an offensive system to Iowa State’s all-around assault and Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson.
Arizona couldn’t find a defensive answer for any of them.
Now, it’s not as if the Wildcats have a bad offense. Arizona is sitting in KenPom’s top 20 and has generally been proven difficult to stop over the course of 40 minutes.
It hasn’t necessarily been pretty, but style does not cut down nets or hang banners.
But that’s the thing. At its best this season, Arizona has been less pretty and more gritty. While the offense has shown up at times and in spurts from various different players, what separated this team from previous versions was its not needing to light up the scoreboard in order to add to the win column.
That hasn’t been the case of late, and given it’s unlikely Arizona will magically become a great shooting team it is imperative that whatever it is that made the defense elite return.
This week would be a fine time, as a strong showing in the Big 12 Tournament would help to solidify Arizona’s NCAA seeding as well as maybe bring about the kind of confidence needed to perform in the postseason. It’s funny how despite the season’s ups and downs Arizona is still the third seed in the conference, one of a group of programs who we could all see getting hot and making some noise over the next few weeks.
At the same time, they are still a team that has sputtered down the stretch and shown the kind of vulnerability that makes you think their time in the dance will be brief.
So while it would be nice for Arizona to win a game, two or even three this week in Kansas City, nothing that happens here will make or break what happens beginning next week. Arizona could win its first ever Big 12 Conference Tournament, likely beating top-tier opponents along the way. A win over either Iowa State or Houston would help wash away the taste of losing the most recent meeting with each of them, as would a victory over BYU or Kansas. But as we’ve learned all too well in the past, conference tournament success — exhilarating and enjoyable as it is — does not guarantee much for the games that follow.
Then again, getting bounced in their first game would not be a good sign, especially if defense is the reason why. Although just as winning the tournament wouldn’t mean Arizona is set to go on a Final Four run, struggling in it doesn’t have to mean the team is getting bounced the first weekend.
This season Arizona has beaten some of the country’s best and won in difficult environments. That’s good. When you look at the schedule despite having lost 11 games, you’ll see none were what one would consider to be bad. That’s also good.
Does that mean Arizona is good? Yes. But this time of year good is rarely good enough.
So the real question, or at leas the one that matters, is if Arizona is one of the best teams in the country. On most nights the answer has been a resounding yes.
Most nights is not all nights.
When the defense is locked in Arizona is tough to beat. If the team’s form on that side of the floor can be regained, the Cats are going to be a tough out for whoever they play.
And in a season filled with change and uncertainty, highs and lows, perhaps knowing the Cats are capable of greatness is all we can ask for.