Arizona head coach Adia Barnes went with an easier nonconference schedule this year because she felt having the No. 2 overall schedule last year didn’t do much to help her team with the selection committee. In her estimation, more wins would have helped, so she scheduled accordingly.
“I thought it was going to be easy,” Barnes said. “It was supposedly, but it didn’t turn out being that much easier.”
The Wildcats are 9-4, the worst nonconference record under Barnes since 2017-18. Arizona was 4-7 before Pac-12 play that season. It ended 6-24.
“It was okay,” Barnes said of the nonconference season. “It was hard for some of those games, not having our best players. And it’s not an excuse at all, but it’s just it is what it is. I think that stress playing at NAU is hard. NAU has played really well, but those are good teams. I don’t think we have a bad loss. I mean, if you’re just hearing, ‘Oh, GCU, NAU,’ those are teams we should beat. But if you look at their roster, look at their personnel, their experience, they’re both teams (that are) probably going to win their conferences, and they’re good, and they’re both really experienced.”
The fortunate thing this weekend is that Arizona should have all of its primary rotation players for one of the few times this season. Skylar Jones still had a boot on her foot early Thursday afternoon, but Barnes said that was just to take the pressure off during day-to-day activities. She is in full contact at practice and is expected to play Saturday.
That doesn’t change past difficulties, some of which undoubtedly came from the absences of Jones, Jada Williams, Breya Cunningham, Isis Beh, and Sahnya Jah at various points. The losses will impact the Wildcats all season regardless of who was or was not available.
Two of Arizona’s four losses came to major conference teams with solid numbers in the NET. Vanderbilt is ranked No. 13. California is at No. 29. Those are the only two Quad 1 games the Wildcats have played.
Part of the issues with the other two losses come down to optics. While Grand Canyon and Northern Arizona are solid mid-majors picked to win their conferences, it’s definitely not a good look for the Wildcats to have four losses with two against in-state mid-majors.
It’s not just about that, though. While Barnes argues that those defeats are not “bad losses,” the NET doesn’t entirely agree. GCU is just ahead of UA in the NET, sitting at No. 85. Since the game was played at Arizona, it’s a Quad 3 loss. NAU is 93rd in the NET, but playing in Flagstaff makes it a less damaging Quad 2 loss.
The bigger problem is that Arizona has not beaten any good teams. Eight of its nine wins are in Quad 4 contests. Its other win is in Quad 3. With only two Quad 1 games and a loss in Quad 3, it’s not an NCAA resume.
Arizona runs the risk of the worst of both worlds: too many losses and a soft schedule. One or the other can be overcome. Having both could be a problem when this year’s Selection Sunday rolls around.
What are the prospects for the team as it heads into Big 12 play on Saturday against BYU?
The Wildcats currently sit at No. 86 in the NET. They have an opportunity to pick up some points in league play based on the NET of other teams, but human voters do not like the Big 12 as much as the computer does. Will that affect Arizona when it’s time for humans to pick the tournament field?
The conference started the season with four teams in the Associated Press Top 25. Iowa State was the highest at No. 8. TCU and Utah were also receiving votes, giving the league six teams getting attention from the media voters.
The league is down to three ranked teams. The Cyclones have fallen completely out of the poll, although they are still receiving votes. The Horned Frogs are the highest ranked at No. 12 and no one except ISU is receiving votes.
The coaches like the Big 12 a little more than the media does. The WBCA poll has five teams from the conference: No. 12 KSU, No. 13 TCU, No. 14 WVU, No. 21 Baylor, and No. 23 ISU. Utah is receiving enough votes to land at the equivalent of No. 33.
As a league, the Big 12 is ranked fourth in the NET according to Warren Nolan. The NCAA’s ranking system still likes the conference quite a bit. Kansas State is holding at No. 4. TCU sits at No. 8 and West Virginia is ninth. Baylor is No. 19. Utah is just outside the top 25 at No. 26.
Barnes isn’t looking at that right now, though.
“It doesn’t concern me now, because right now, we have to get better, and we have to improve to even be there,” she said. “So I’m not even thinking ahead like that. I’m thinking like, ‘Okay, let’s get healthy. Let’s go in the Big 12, improved and playing better, not turn the ball over as much and stuff,’ because if we don’t take care of those things, we’re not going to win the games we’re supposed to, and we’re not going to steal games against better opponents. So getting better, having a test on the road to see where we’re at, it’s a good barometer for us moving forward…With this team, it really has to be narrow focus, one game at a time, because we have to. I don’t think we have the luxury with our personnel and our youth of looking and saying, ‘Oh, this game is going to be a win.’ We don’t have that luxury. I think every team we play is going to be hard.”
That first test on the road comes in Provo, Utah on Saturday. The BYU Cougars are 9-2. Their only game against a major conference opponent was a 20-point loss to Iowa. Its other loss came to Northern Colorado. Despite playing just one Power 4 team, the Cougars have still played a stronger schedule than Arizona according to Her Hoop Stats.
The Wildcats must get their turnovers, fouls, and fundamentals under control if they hope to get of on the right foot.
Junior guard Paulina Paris summed it up last week. She and her teammates have to “try to win all of our Big 12 games that we can. Get back on track for postseason.”
Rankings and ratings
NET: BYU No. 67, Arizona No. 86
Her Hoop Stats: Overall—Arizona No. 68, BYU No. 84, Offensive—Arizona No. 79, BYU No. 90, Defensive—Arizona No. 59, BYU No. 91
Massey: BYU No. 55, Arizona No. 62
Projections and probabilities
Her Hoop Stats: BYU with a 52.2 percent win probability at home. Points totals are projected at 65 for Arizona and 65.6 for BYU with a 0.6 win margin for the Cougars. Arizona would be favored in McKale Center or at a neutral site.
Massey: BYU with a 56 percent win probability in Provo. Most likely score 68-65.