Comparing the Wildcats and the Mountaineers ahead of Saturday evening’s clash
The last time the Arizona Wildcats (13-8, 4-4 Big 12) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (16-3, 6-2 Big 12) faced off in women’s basketball, Isis Beh played for WVU and Arizona was the more highly regarded team. The 7th-seeded Wildcats defeated the No. 10 seed Mountaineers in the opening round of the 2023 NCAA tournament. WVU sophomore star JJ Quinerly scored 19 points that game.
Fast forward a couple of years and Quinerly is in her senior season. Her Mountaineers are ranked No. 16 by the Associated Press. On the other bench, Beh provides senior leadership for the Wildcats, but a group of three sophomores primarily leads them.
The two teams have only played twice. Arizona won both times. In addition to their game in College Park, Md two years ago, the programs met on a neutral site in 1983. The Wildcats won by 13 in the 2023 tourney and by 4 when they first met over 40 years ago.
Those results are largely irrelevant this year, though. Quinerly is a more mature version of herself now and Beh has become a very different player at Arizona. Otherwise, there isn’t much that can be taken from even the most recent encounter. What do the numbers say about this year’s teams?
Offense
- Points per game (overall): WVU 80.5, UA 69.2
- Points per game (Big 12 only): WVU 74.5, UA 63.4
- Points per 100 possessions (overall): WVU 108.8, UA 94.8
- Points per 100 possessions (Big 12 only): WVU 102.4, UA 92.0
- Players in double figures for WVU (overall): JJ Quinerly (19.0), Jordan Harrison (14.1), Sydney Shaw (12.5)
- Players in double figures for UA (overall): Jada Williams (12.4), Breya Cunningham (11.8)
- Players in double figures for WVU (Big 12 only): JJ Quinerly (20.5), Jordan Harrison (12.8), Sydney Shaw (12.0), Kylee Blacksten (10.4)
- Players in double figures for UA (Big 12 only): Jada Williams (13.5), Lauryn Swann (10.4), Breya Cunningham (10.0)
- WVU shooting percentages (overall): FG% 46.2 percent, 3FG% 34 percent, FT% 77.5 percent, eFG% 52.5 percent
- UA shooting percentages (overall): FG% 44.6 percent, 3FG% 33.3 percent, FT% 69.1 percent, eFG% 49.5 percent
- WVU shooting percentages (Big 12 only): FG% 42.2 percent, 3FG% 31.3 percent, FT% 84.6 percent, eFG% 48.7 percent
- UA shooting percentages (Big 12 only): FG% 43.1 percent, 3FG% 37.7 percent, FT% 68.6 percent, eFG% 48.5 percent
Defense
- Opponents’ points per game (overall): WVU 52.8, UA 61.6
- Opponents’ points per game (Big 12 only): WVU 58.3, UA 57.3
- Opponents’ points per 100 possessions (overall): WVU 72.0, UA 84.3
- Opponents’ points per 100 possessions (Big 12 only): WVU 79.7, UA 92.0
- Steals per game (overall): WVU 14.6, UA 10.5
- Steals per game (Big 12 only): WVU 13.9, UA 8.4
- Blocks per game (overall): WVU 1.6, UA 3.4
- Blocks per game (Big 12 only): WVU 1.9, UA 3.3
- WVU opponents’ shooting percentages (overall): FG% 38.5 percent, 3FG% 28.5 percent, FT% 69.9 percent, eFG% 43.4 percent
- UA opponents’ shooting percentages (overall): FG% 37.9 percent, 3FG% 30.8 percent, FT% 72.4 percent, eFG% 43.1 percent
- WVU opponents’ shooting percentages (Big 12 only): FG% 44.1 percent, 3FG% 31.8 percent, FT% 69.1 percent, eFG% 49.4 percent
- UA opponents’ shooting percentages (Big 12 only): FG% 40.6 percent, 3FG% 35.3 percent, FT% 72.8 percent, eFG% 46.6 percent
Ratings and rankings
West Virginia is ranked No. 16 in the Associated Press Top 25 and the WBCA poll. Arizona is not ranked in either poll.
The Mountaineers are No. 11 in the NET while the Wildcats are No. 60. Arizona was at No. 78 before its trip to Kansas State and Kansas last week.
Her Hoop Stats ranks WVU at No. 11 and UA at No. 58 overall. Offensively, WVU is No. 23 compared to UA at No. 77. The Wildcats are ranked No. 41 defensively. The Mountaineers are 9th.
Massey ratings place WVU at 16 and Arizona at 48.
Projections and probabilities
WVU has everyone’s confidence. It is favored by 11.1 points in Tucson according to Her Hoop Stats. The stats service gives the Mountaineers an 83 percent win probability and projects the score as 70.9 points for WVU and 59.8 for Arizona.
Massey thinks the score will be closer. While the Mountaineers still have a 68 percent win probability, the most likely score is 68-61.