To this point in Arizona’s time in the Big 12 it has faced opponents that are either fairly new to the league, like the Wildcats, or ones that aren’t regarded historically as among the league’s top teams.
That all changes on Tuesday night when the UA hosts Baylor, which for the past decade-plus has been one of the best programs in the country, let alone the league. The Bears (11-4, 3-1) have been ranked in the Top 10 at least once in each of the last six seasons, reaching No. 1 11 times since 2017, and won the 2021 NCAA title.
This year’s Baylor squad began the season at No. 8 but comes to Tucson at No. 25.
To better understand this foe, we reached out to Matt Wilson of The Oso for some insight and a game prediction. Below are his attractive answers to our ugly questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: Baylor played a challenging nonconference schedule with five Top 100 KenPom opponents, and while it wasn’t as rough as Arizona’s early results the Bears did get beat handily in a couple. What did you learn about this team from the preseason?
Matt Wilson: “This is where you have to balance an individual’s expectations, the fanbase’s expectations, and what actually happens. Personally? I learned that VJ Edgecombe is going to impact games in a more diverse way than just scoring the ball. This is a weird lesson, because with past 5-star recruits in the Baylor-sphere, you can at least count on the young stars to score the ball, but be still developing in other areas. Not VJ.
“I think the fanbase is learning, again, that a tough nonconference is just that… it is MEANT to be tough. The team is MEANT to learn lessons that aren’t always pretty to learn. We fans were so lucky to watch a 2020-21 team learn those lessons without too much impact on results, and we watched that same core learn even more with even LESS impact on the record. I think some have a twisted idea of what to expect when you go on the road to play a program (emphasis on program) like Gonzaga or UConn.
“Personally again, I’ve learned that I’m still a sucker for the Scott Drew Zone Defense, but I also vividly relearned that it is frustrating to watch newer players get adjusted to it. Overall, this is a Baylor team, like many other teams across the country, that is trying to find itself.”
The Bears’ defense has looked much better since switching into league play, with Iowa State the only team to shoot well. What led to this improvement and how do you think the D will stack up against Arizona?
“The biggest concern from national pundits (and rightfully so) was the defense. If you look at the earlier games this season, absolutely a correct take. After a few games against offensively challenged teams, I think there is both some statistical inflation and some improvement.
This team is determined to switch as much as possible, and in order for that to work, frontcourt players need to be disciplined and backcourt players need to be dedicated to rotating back quickly. It has looked better. It has also looked better against Cincinnati and Arizona State.
With five players averaging double figures this looks like a pretty balanced team. Who does the offense run through and what makes them so effective?
“I don’t think we actually know yet, which is a concern, but there are definitely early sets for Norchad Omier every game. I’d like to see Jeremy Roach take more authority and create more plays, but it just hasn’t happened yet. I think the most accurate answer here is ‘Baylor runs their offense through offensive rebounding.’”
In the overtime win at ASU, Baylor played six guys 30-plus minutes with one logging 41. How much is depth and fatigue a concern?
“Scott Drew has always been in favor of a short, short bench. Jason Asemota has earned more minutes in Jalen Celestine’s absence and Langston Love’s time away with another ankle injury, but has looked serviceable. Robert Wright III, who I personally believe will end up being Baylor’s best point guard ever (not a typo), is also learning at a screaming fast pace.
“Ideally, you’d like to have Love back as soon as possible. Celestine would certainly provide more shooting, but I think this rotation will top out at 7-8ish max in any configuration.”
This is Scott Drew’s 22nd season at Baylor, where he resurrected the program and won a natty. What has kept him in Waco when there no doubt have been opportunities to leave?
“Fit. I think it’s mostly family and fit. No school will ‘fit’ what Scott Drew is and isn’t better than Baylor University. His family is here, his home is here. He knows and everyone else knows he can win here. Kentucky fans won’t try to burn down his house here. Lots of benefits.
Prediction time: Does Arizona remain perfect in its first season in the Big 12 or does Baylor score a huge road victory? Give us a score prediction.
“With as close as that Arizona State game ended up being, I think either Baylor wins by double digits with a tremendous response, or loses by 10 on the road against a well-coached and talented team. I’d wager my own money on the latter. Still more learning to do before this Baylor team can pull this one off.”