Gonna be a fun 2nd half
We’re just six weeks away from the NCAA Tournament field being unveiled, and all signs point to Arizona not just making it but also getting a pretty good seed. Imagine thinking that a little more than a month ago when the Wildcats were 4-5 with zero quality wins on their resume.
Now, the UA (15-6, 9-1) is tied for first place in the Big 12 and sitting at No. 11 in the NET rankings.
It’s been quite a first half of conference play for Arizona, but there’s a long way to go.
“Too early,” coach Tommy Lloyd said, after the overtime win over No. 3 Iowa State on Monday, about the Big 12 race.
At the midpoint of the league the Wildcats are one of seven teams in the mix for the regular season title, as only three games separate first place and seventh. Almost as importantly is finishing in the top four of the standings, which means getting a double bye into the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament next month in Kansas City.
There are still 17 games remaining between top Big 12’s top tier of seven, and Arizona will be involved in more than half of them starting with Tuesday’s trip to BYU.
“I’m looking around the corner and wondering when (the schedule) lets up, but I don’t think it does,” Lloyd said.
Here’s a look at where Arizona and the rest of the top tier stand entering the second half:
Arizona (15-6, 9-1)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 42-58
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 59-41
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 2-1
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 7
When Arizona’s Big 12 schedule came out it looked like it was backloaded and that continues to be the case at the midpoint. The Wildcats still have to play every other team in the top tier, including two against BYU, and four of those are on the road.
Getting Houston at McKale Center for their only meeting is huge, as is the revenge game with Texas Tech next weekend, but the last three road games are a gauntlet: Baylor (two days after hosting Houston), Iowa State and Kansas.
What separates Arizona from the field right now is that it’s the only team not to lose at home in Big 12 play. The other six have combined for eight league losses.
Houston (17-4, 9-1)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 48-51 (TCU)
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 50-50
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 2-1
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 6
In losing at home in overtime to Texas Tech on Saturday, thus ending a 33-game home win streak as well as 18 in a row in the league, Houston went from runaway Big 12 champ to (still) the favorite but no longer a sure thing. And there are still some big hurdles to overcome.
The Cougars still have to play at Arizona, Texas Tech and Baylor and the UA game is the front end of a 2-game swing in the Grand Canyon State that has already resulted in a loss for Baylor and Iowa State. They also have a tough Saturday-Monday swing against Iowa State and at Texas Tech.
Combine that with a finish against Kansas and at Baylor and Houston will have to earn the title that only a week ago seemed like a foregone conclusion.
Texas Tech (17-4, 8-2)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 52-48
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 47-53
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 3-1
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 4
Texas Tech is the hottest team in the league, winning its last six that included handing Arizona and Houston their only Big 12 losses. The overtime victory at Houston improved the Red Raiders to 5-0 on the road in league games, softening the blow that saw them start 0-2 at home against UCF and Iowa State.
If Tech can also win at Arizona next Saturday it may end up winning the league because it also gets Houston at home. That’s two days before visiting Kansas, which could be the final hurdle between it and its first Big 12 regular season title since 2019.
That’s because the Red Raiders have arguably the easiest final week, hosting last-place Colorado and finishing at ASU.
Iowa State (17-4, 7-3)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 49-51
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 47-53
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 3-1
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 4
Iowa State was a 55-foot miracle away from getting a road sweep of the Arizona schools, but instead heads into the second half off consecutive Big 12 losses for the first time since late in the 2022-23 season. The hangover of that loss in Tucson carried over to an inexplicable 19-point loss to Kansas State, which ended the Cyclones’ 29-game home win streak.
There’s a very realistic chance for a third straight loss, as Iowa State visits Kansas on Monday night. After that it gets a little easier, with four consecutive games against teams with a combined 10-30 Big 12 record, but that’s followed by a visit to Houston and then a trap game at Oklahoma State which 3-2 at home in the league.
The Cyclones get Arizona and BYU at home before finishing with a revenge game at K-State, a tough final stretch but one that will have no shortage of extra motivation added to it.
Baylor (14-7, 6-4)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 49-51
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 54-46
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 1-3
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 4
Down 21 at home to Kansas late in the first half on Saturday, Baylor looked like it had nothing left in the tank after an overtime loss at BYU four days earlier. Then the Bears outscored the Jayhawks by 30 in the second half and everything is back on the table.
Baylor will have to avoid losing a game it should in order to stay in the race because it still has two meetings with Houston, including the regular season finale on the road, as well as a trip to Texas Tech on Tuesday and a Big Monday battle with Arizona in two weeks.
The more realistic goal for the Bears is probably to lock up a top 4 seed, but even that will take picking off at least one of the teams ahead of it because they don’t face the teams they’re currently tied with.
BYU (15-6, 6-4)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 41-59
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 54-46
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 1-2
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 4
Winners of four straight, BYU has played itself into contention after starting 2-4 with an overtime loss at rival Utah. The current run includes an OT win over Baylor and surviving the long trip to UCF.
Two games against Arizona, starting Tuesday in Provo, as well as a visit from Kansas (which will be on the tail end of a 2-game swing in the state), will provide the Cougars with chances to battle for fourh place or better. But there are plenty of pitfalls, too, including the most difficult road trip in terms of travel to Cincinnati and West Virginia.
BYU finishes at home against Utah, a rivalry game that could also determine if it has to start a day or two earlier at the Big 12 Tournament.
Kansas (15-6, 6-4)
- Big 12 record of opponents faced: 47-52
- Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 50-50
- Record vs. Big 12 top tier: 0-3
- Remaining Big 12 top tier games: 5
Kansas is getting included in here because it is technically tied for fifth place and only three games out of first, but in reality this is the equivalent of a legacy mention for a team that wouldn’t deserve it if not for the name. The Jayhawks don’t have any wins against the top tier, blowing that big lead at Baylor on Saturday after squandering two late edges against Houston the week before.
The Jayhawks have lost multiple Big 12 games at Allen Fieldhouse for the first time in seven years and still have Iowa State, Texas Tech and Arizona at home. They should be favored in each but not by much.
Kansas also has to go to Houston to start the final week of league play and has the Utah/BYU road swing, but it also has two left with Colorado. There’s a much better chance that finale against the UA on March 8 is to keep the Jayhawks from having to play in the conference tournament’s first round than to get it a double bye.