After opening the Big 12 at home, Arizona now gets its first taste of life on the road with two straight games away from the friendly confines of McKale Center. The road trip begins with a trip to Cincinnati, which is in its second year in the conference.
The 16th-ranked Bearcats (10-2, 0-1) are coming off a 70-67 loss at Kansas State on Monday, but at Fifth Third Arena they have won 11 in a row.
To better understand Cincy, we reached out to Keegan Nickoson of BearcatJournal.com for some insight and a score prediction. Here are his solid answers to our gaseous questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: Cincinnati led for only 24 seconds in its Big 12 opener at Kansas State yet had better shooting and rebounding numbers. What was the key to that defeat, and is there any cause for concern?
Keegan Nickoson: “Uncharacteristically, Cincinnati turned the ball over 14 times, the most they have all season. Additionally, leading scorer Simas Lukošius was completely shut down, only scoring four points on 2-of-6 shooting. Kansas State’s two best players, Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins, combined for 37 points continuing the trend of the opponent’s best players having big scoring nights against the Bearcats.
“I’m not too worried about the turnovers as opening Big 12 play on the road against a desperate team isn’t exactly a favorable matchup. I am worried about the offense going as Lukošius goes. This team has touted its depth all year, beating Xavier 68-65 despite Jizzle James scoring two points on 0-for-11 shooting from the field. But as the offense has struggled over the last few weeks, it’s correlated with Lukošius slowing down.”
The Bearcats have the No. 6 defense in the country, per KenPom. How would you best describe this scheme, and who are the top pieces of it?
“It’s a relentlessly aggressive man scheme led by Dillon Mitchell and bench guard Day Day Thomas. Thomas, a JUCO transfer in his second season with the team, is probably the team’s best defender using speed and technique to fight through screens with ease. Mitchell is very athletic for his size being able to guard the 1-5 and can also protect the rim. Aziz Bandaogo is also a Big 12 leader in blocks.
“The Bearcats also pride themselves in rebounding on both sides of the ball, but one of its best rebounders, Dan Skillings Jr. has been struggling since returning from injury only averaging four boards per game.”
Junior guard Daniel Skillings Jr. had a season-high 18 points at Kansas State and junior forward Dillon Mitchell had a double-double. Are these the kind of performances each can be expected to make on a nightly basis?
“Skillings has been more inconsistent since returning from injury. He was 4 of 8 from 3-point range against KSU on Monday, but in his prior four games, he was 2 for 12. It could be a thing where he has figured out his shot, he’s definitely shown the ability to explode in games as he did at the end of last season. Skillings is most dangerous on the offensive boards and uses his athleticism to finish at the rim.
“Mitchell can absolutely go off for a double-double any night averaging 11.7 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. He’s pulled down 7+ rebounds in four straight games. He’s a massive lob threat who can also finish around the rim. Mitchell has also dabbled with a three-point shot this season, he’s 5 of 14 (35.7%).”
What would you consider the biggest flaw to Cincinnati’s offense?
“The Bearcats’ halfcourt offense has struggled a good bit this season. They try to use their excellent defense to get out in transition for easy buckets and kick out threes to Lukošius. Additionally, UC only converts 65 percent of its free throws, good for No. 332 in the country.
“They really rely on James and Lukošius to have good shooting nights in order to win a game comfortably. Bench pieces Connor Hickman and Tyler Betsey have also struggled as of late.”
Cincinnati is 7-0 at home this season but Xavier is the only quality opponent it has faced. A year ago the Bearcats went 4-5 at home in Big 12 play. How would you describe the first Big 12 road atmosphere Arizona will face?
“Looking at Arizona’s schedule, Fifth Third Arena will likely be a top-5 atmosphere the Wildcats will face all season. This was one of the games—along with Kansas and Baylor—that fans have been looking forward to most since the release of the Big 12 schedule. UC fans are still getting used to hosting big-time teams in Cincinnati and besides Texas last season, this will be the biggest brand Cincinnati has hosted in Clifton since joining the Big 12. Expect a raucous atmosphere.”
Wes Miller is in his 4th season but is seeking his first NCAA appearance. Has he done enough to indicate he can return the program to the level it was under Mick Cronin?
“Miller has done enough in recruiting and retention to show he has the program moving in the right direction. From taking the team over with only one scholarship player on the roster to landing 5-star recruits, making the NCAA Tournament is the next box that needs to be checked and there’s no excuse it shouldn’t be this season. Last year, UC had six losses of less than five points and lost resumé-killing games to West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.”
Prediction time. Does Arizona win on the road in hostile territory or does Cincinnati hold serve? Give us a score prediction.
“I’m not confident in Cincinnati’s ability to beat a quality team until I see Simas Lukošius get his shooting stroke back. Arizona will be the best defensive team UC has played this whole season by a wide margin according to KenPom, so it isn’t a great opportunity for Lukošius to bounce back.
“If the Bearcats win this game it will be second chance points, and that will mean Dan Skillings having likely his best rebounding game of the year. FINAL: Arizona 73 Cincinnati 70.”