During his tenure as Arizona’s head coach Tommy Lloyd has proven to be pretty difficult to beat.
He’s been damn near impossible to beat twice in a row, as his Wildcats are 11-1 in revenge games, those against teams that had beat Arizona the last time they played.
With that in mind, the math (or is it the science? astrology?) says Arizona should be fine Saturday afternoon when it hosts Houston, the team that knocked the Cats out of the NCAA tournament in the ‘22 Sweet 16.
That was the last time these programs faced off, after all.
Just two players from that game remain, and both of them play for Houston. So in terms of revenge it is unlikely J’Wan Roberts, who will play, or Ramon Walker Jr., who is out with an injury, are likely to feel any extra animosity for their opponent.
At the same time other than coaches only walk-on Grant Weitman is still with Arizona, so if there is any residual resentment over what went down that fateful March evening, chances are it will not impact this year’s game.
That’s to say nothing of the fans, for whom the first tournament loss of the Lloyd era still stings.
Anyway, the stakes in this year’s matchup are not nearly as high, with this being a regular season conference game and not one that will end one team’s season. Each team is vying for the Big 12 championship, however, and looking to prove it deserves a high seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament.
For Arizona a home win would further show it’s a legitimate contender and that the McKale Center will continue to be a tough place to visit, no matter how good of a team you think you have.
It would also help to validate not only Lloyd’s system, but his growth as a coach.
The team that fell to Houston 72-60 a few years ago was arguably more talented than this one. Led by Benn Mathurin there were four future NBA draft picks on the roster along with more future professionals in other leagues.
But for all the excitement that team provided, it was unable to solve Houston’s tough, physical brand of basketball.
Three years later Lloyd’s team will have fewer future NBA players on the court, but what the Cats lack there they may very well make up for in grittiness and toughness.
Though it is coming off a loss to Kansas State, Arizona this season has proven to be nearly unbeatable when shots are falling but plenty capable of winning games when they are not due to its ability to defend and rebound. It’s why the Cats are 12th in EvanMiya.com, 14th in KenPom and 10th in NET.
Those traits should give Arizona a chance in any game it plays, and although it is at home it’s facing off against a higher-ranked team that has fewer losses, is 2nd in EvanMiya.com and 3rd in both KenPom and NET. Houston has lost just once since the calendar flipped to December, a one-point OT defeat at the hands of Texas Tech a couple weeks ago.
So while Arizona is good, it’s probably fair to say Houston is better.
The beauty of sports though and especially this game is that it being in Tucson will provide the Cats with a boost. The last time these programs met at the McKale Center saw Arizona rally following the stomp heard ‘round the world, or more accurately the stomp felt by Chase Budinger’s face.
That win propelled a bubble team led by an interim head coach into a winning streak that landed them in the NCAA tourney, where some favorable matchups paved the way into the Sweet 16.
In all Arizona and Houston have matched up just 12 times, with each team winning six. Arizona is 4-2 in Tucson, last losing at home to the Cougars in 1967.
Fortunately for us the frequency of their matchups is set to increase, and hopefully each subsequent game carries the kind of weight as this one.
Because while this may not be a true ‘revenge game’ for Arizona, it certainly is a big one.
And big games are fun.