When you think of the Big 12 Conference, particularly in men’s basketball, Kansas is usually one of the first names that comes to mind.
Since joining what was then known as Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association in 1907, the Jayhawks have won the league’s regular season title 64 times including 22 times since it became the Big 12 in 1996. And when the NCAA Tournament field is announced on March 16 it will mark their 35th consecutive appearance, the longest streak in Division I history.
Yet this year’s Kansas team has failed to meet lofty preseason expectations. The Jayhawks (19-11, 10-9) were picked to win the conference and ranked No. 1 in the AP poll to start the season but fell out of the Top 25 a few weeks ago and sit in a tie for 6th place going into Saturday’s final games.
To better understand Arizona’s opponent we reached out to our SB Nation sister site Rock Chalk Talk for some insight and a prediction of who will win these programs’ first matchup as conference foes. Below are their educated answers to our rudimentary questions.
AZ Desert Swarm: Kansas led at regular season champion Houston early in the second half on Monday night before ultimately falling by six, but it seemed like a better effort than in the previous four road games (and losses). What was most promising about that performance that can be carried over to Saturday, and what was most concerning?
Rock Chalk Talk: “The most promising aspect is in the bigger picture. It was a reminder that this team is capable of hanging with any team in the country. Though the team is flawed, they were the preseason No. 1 team for a reason. The most concerning thing is that the same problems keep coming up to cost this team wins. Poor late-game execution, too many untimely turnovers, and giving up key offensive rebounds have been season-long issues, and those are the exact problems that allowed Houston to pull away late.”
The Jayhawks start four seniors and, according to KenPom, are the most veteran team in Division I. Yet a loss on Saturday would mark the first time finishing with a non-winning record in conference play since 1988-89. Why hasn’t all that experience translated into more wins?
“Though the team is very experienced, the pieces just haven’t fit. Because KJ Adams, Dajuan Harris, and Hunter Dickinson share the floor for most of the game, the Jayhawks don’t put much outside shooting on the floor. That allows teams to drop coverage and swarm Dickinson when gets the ball down low, and shut down any attempts to get into the paint. The combination of experience and talent has given the Jayhawks a great defense, but to keep that defensive performance up they have to sacrifice spacing and shooting, which just doesn’t work in the modern game.”
Kansas ranks 8th in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and isn’t better than 5th in any major offensive category. What hasn’t worked with the scheme, and who has managed to thrive individually despite the poor overall numbers?
“I guess I touched on this a lot in the last answer, but it comes down to that lack of spacing and becoming too easy to guard. Kansas had similar issues last year, and there’s just too much tape out there for opponents to use as a guide for how to lock up the team offensively.
“Hunter Dickinson is the best example of a player who has shined despite the team struggles. If he’s only defended by one player, he’s nearly guaranteed a bucket. He has great touch around the basket, and has been a walking double-double all year long. He also gobbles up defensive boards and is an underrated rim protector. Zeke Mayo has also had glimpses of individual success, but he’s hit a rough patch recently and has started turning the ball over a bit too much. Still, if he hits a few shots early to get going, he can light up the scoreboard as well as anyone on the team.”
The defensive side of the ball looks to be quite solid, particularly when it comes to field goal defense. How would you describe the Jayhawks’ defensive approach, and where is it most vulnerable?
“The defense has stayed consistently good throughout the year. Kansas routinely forces opponents to take tough shots they don’t want to take, and despite some issues with allowing offensive boards at the wrong times, overall they rebound the ball very well on that end of the court, so teams are under a lot of pressure to make that shot attempt they get through their half court offense. The primary vulnerability is a lack of good defense from their wings, which can allow the occasional path to the rim, or more often, a wide open look from three as the wings struggle to effectively handle perimeter screens.”
Allen Fieldhouse is one of the most revered arenas in the game, though Kansas has surprisingly lost three times there this season. Give us an idea of what kind of atmosphere Arizona is walking into.
“Allen Fieldhouse is going to be loud, regardless of opponent. With this game being senior night I expect a little extra emotion coming from the fans, as Kansas has a very long streak of winning senior night games. The Jayhawks have several primary players who will be hooping in AFH one last time, and the fans will no doubt be looking to send them off with a win. Expect a sellout crowd and, as long as the game stays competitive, as loud an environment as a college team will ever face.”
Bill Self is a Hall of Fame coach with two national titles and is the all-time wins leader at Kansas, yet this is back-to-back seasons where the Jayhawks were preseason No. 1 and massively underachieved. Has there been any speculation to Self following in the footsteps of other recent championship coaches like Jay Wright and Tony Bennett and calling it quits because of how college basketball has changed?
“Bill Self has shot down the idea that he might be retiring any time in the immediate future, but there is concern among the fanbase that he’s not adjusting well to the new era of college hoops. This staff has missed badly on multiple transfers and high school recruits in recent years, and in some cases those misses have been at positions of immediate need. If that doesn’t change soon and the team continues to lose 10+ games every season, I expect some pressure from the fans, and possibly the AD, to call it a career. Fortunately, Self has a likely lottery pick on his way in next year’s high school class, and if he can fill some holes with better players than we’ve seen in the last two years, this could just be a couple of easily forgotten down years.”
Prediction time. Does Kansas treat its guests poorly and hold serve at home or does Arizona finish off its first Big 12 regular season with a win in Lawrence? Give us a score pick.
“Jayhawk fans are worn down watching this team lose to seemingly every high-level opponent they play. Iowa State is the only tournament team Kansas has beaten since November. It’s rare to expect a home loss for Kansas, or at least it would be in most seasons, but despite playing well at Houston, I just don’t have much confidence in this Kansas team beating a high quality opponent like Arizona. I expect this to stay close, but ultimately end in yet another frustrating loss. I’ll say Arizona 74, Kansas 68.”