When Arizona lost the third game of the season at Wisconsin it could easily chalk that up to running into a foul-fueled buzzsaw on the road. When they fell to Duke at home a week later, marking the first time under Tommy Lloyd the Wildcats had lost consecutive games, that was partly due to not being ready to take on such a talented opponent but not really a cause for concern.
But then came another two straight losses, to Oklahoma and West Virginia at the Battle4Atlantis in the Bahamas, when Arizona led for a combined 12 minutes and showed very little offensive and defensive rhythm. The UA was 3-4, below .500 for the first time since 2010, and two weeks later it blew a 13-point lead in the second half to UCLA in Phoenix, dropping to 4-5.
No way did this team look like one that could make it to the second week of the NCAA Tournament. Heck, just getting into the tourney felt like a reach with the daunting move to the Big 12 Conference still to come.
You, the fans, were in crisis mode. Lloyd, on the other hand, looked at it as just another challenge.
“I never had any doubts that we’d be here right now, and I told myself I don’t even know how many times in my own head, we’re getting to the Sweet 16,” Lloyd said Wednesday. “For me, there never was any doubts. It was just a matter of rolling up our sleeves and getting to the work. No matter how we slice it or dice it, we’re going to get to the Sweet 16 and figure it out from there. So we’re here and we’re excited to try to take the next step.”
Arizona (24-12) is in the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row and third time in four seasons under Lloyd, one of just seven schools in Division I to make it this far at least three times since 2022. But unlike the previous two instances, this time the 4th-seeded Wildcats are decided underdogs.
No. 1 seed Duke (33-3) is the betting favorite to win its sixth national title, sitting at +220 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Blue Devils are favored by 9.5 points, tied for the largest spread of any Sweet 16 game, and KenPom.com gives the UA only a 22 percent chance of victory.
Then again, Arizona was a 9.5-point dog in 2011 when it beat No. 1 Duke in the Sweet 16, and in that game KenPom gave it a 16 percent chance to win. This will be the first time the UA has been an underdog in the NCAA Tournament since the 2013 Sweet 16 against Ohio State.
“In each game it really don’t matter if you’re the favorite or the underdog, because anybody can be beaten, and you can beat anybody,” senior guard Caleb Love said. “So I think obviously we got a chip on our shoulder, regardless of if we were the underdog or not. I think that’s just how we play, and I think that’s just the type of guys that we have on our team.”
Here’s what to watch for when the Wildcats and Blue Devils battle for the second time this season with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line:
Love vs. Duke, Round 10
With 5,694 minutes played in his career, Love is second on the Division I career list and would become the all-time leader if Arizona got to Sunday’s regional final. More than five percent of those minutes have been logged against Duke, a team he faced seven times in three seasons at North Carolina and twice with the Wildcats.
Love scored 28 against the Blue Devils in the 2022 Final Four, ending legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career, and a month earlier led UNC to a win at Duke to spoil Coach K’s final home game. He also shot 3 of 13 (2 of 11 from 3) against Duke at McKale Center in November and missed all six 3-point attempts vs. the Blue Devils in his final home game with the Tar Heels in 2023.
“It’s the next game,” Love said when asked about playing Duke for a 10th time. “I’m loving the guys that I’m going into battle with. We’ve been so locked in since we got here, since we found out we’ve got to play Duke. We’re not shying away from anything, and we’re not running away from the fact that this is another game and that this is a game that we have to win.”
Love is riding one of the best stretches of his career, averaging 19 points the last seven games while shooting 47.4 percent overall and 48.8 percent from 3. He’s made 22 of 23 free throws, tied his career high with nine rebounds against Oregon in the second round, and his assist-to-turnover rate in that stretch is 2-to-1 compared to 1.7 before that.
The final game of each of Love’s seasons, though, have been stinkers. He is 17 of 70 (24.3 percent) overall and 7 of 38 (18.4 percent) from 3, going 0 for 9 from deep against Clemson in last year’s Sweet 16.
Perimeter performance
Love has been at the forefront of a 3-point resurgence for Arizona, making 16 of 33 from outside over the last seven games. As a team, the Wildcats are shooting 43.4 percent from 3 including 22 of 45 (48.9 percent) in the two NCAA Tournament games.
That stretch dates back to the home finale against ASU, but Lloyd has found a common denominator that began with the regular season finale at Kansas.
“Maybe it’s these sticky NCAA balls and soft rims, I don’t know,” Lloyd said. “But we seem to be shooting the ball pretty good right now and pretty confidently, and let’s hope that continues tomorrow.”
It’s not just Love that’s draining from deep. Jaden Bradley is 7 of 13 from 3 since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, after shooting 27 percent during the regular season, and Anthony Dell’Orso is 6 of 13 over the last five games with back-to-back 2 for 4 efforts in the NCAA tourney.
Duke holds opponents to 30.5 percent 3-point shooting, 24th-best in the country, with only one opponent shooting 40 percent in the past six weeks. The Blue Devils are also a top-20 3-point shooting team, at 38.1 percent, and seven of Arizona’s last 10 opponents have made at least 10 triples.
Board battle
Duke and Arizona are two of the best rebounding teams in the country, sitting at 11th and 12th, respectively in rebounding margin. They also each have one of the top offensive rebounders in the country in Khaman Maluach and Tobe Awaka.
Maluach, a 7-foot-2 freshman, is third nationally in offensive rebound percentage and Awaka, a 6-8 junior, is fifth. Awaka had 14 rebounds (in just 22 minutes) against Oregon, tied for sixth-most boards by a UA player in an NCAA tourney game.
Neither guy averages more than 20.9 minutes, though, so the rebounding responsibilities spread to everyone. And that’s where Duke’s length across the board could pay off, as the Blue Devils are the tallest team in the country per KenPom with an average height of 79.8 inches compared to Arizona’s 77.9.
“The rebounding is something we’re always going to emphasize, and we know it’s not going to be easy, but we’re here for it,” Lloyd said.
Duke outrebounded Arizona by 13 in their first meeting in November, but that was before the Wildcats had gotten into Big 12 play and adapted to that league’s more physical style of play. The UA has won or tied the rebounding battle in 18 of the last 19 games, the only exception being the loss at Kansas.