Arizona basketball is good again!
For now.
After a sluggish start to the season that saw the Wildcats’ offense sputter, defense lapse and big leads dissolve, Tommy Lloyd’s team appears to have righted the ship just as conference play began.
Winners of seven straight (5-0 in Big 12), a stretch that includes road wins over ranked Cincinnati and West Virginia and now a home victory over a Top-25 Baylor, the nonconference disappointment has now given way to the feeling that hey, maybe this team can make a run in March.
Now there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played and some very difficult opponents left of the schedule, and chances are the Cats will not run the table the rest of the season. Knowing Arizona fans the next loss will be met with some combination of “Caleb Love can’t win when it matters” or “Lloyd has been figured out” or “Arizona was never that good to begin with” or something along those lines, and indeed this team could get exposed at any time the rest of the way.
Or, maybe, they are one of the better teams in the country and the metrics, all of which have been high on the team most of the season, are right. KenPom ranks Arizona 15th, while Evanmiya.com has them 17th and Haslametrics.com ranks them 11th. They’re also 13th in the NET Rankings.
Flawed but talented, it’s entirely possible Lloyd has finally figured out his lineups and rotation while perhaps lucking into a game-changing big in Henri Veesaar.
At any rate, with all that has happened and all that is yet to come now seems like a good time to take stock and see what there is to feel good about and what there is that should concern us.
You should feel good about … Arizona’s guards. Love, Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis are an outstanding trio that can play defense, shoot the ball and get up and down the floor. Consistency would be nice (we’re talking to you, Caleb) but as a whole this is easily a strength for the team and something that even has room to improve. That Arizona has not needed big games from Love to beat good teams is a testament to the guards that are on the floor with him.
You should be concerned about … Arizona’s 3-point shooting. Anthony Dell’Orso has been a revelation and provided the team with the kind of outside shooter it hasn’t had since at least Gabe York, but perhaps even long before that. After him, however, the Cats just don’t have anyone who can be relied on from deep. While ADO is 28 of 61 (45.9 percent) from deep this season the rest of the team has combined to make 81 of 273 threes, which amounts to 29.6 percent. The team’s overall percentage of 32.6 ranks 244th in the country, just ahead of programs like Sacramento State, N.C. A&T and Southern Utah. Do you need to make threes in order to win? No, but they certainly help and give you more pathways to victory.
You should feel good about … the Cats’ roster. You could argue that Veesaar, Carter Bryant and maybe even Lewis should be starting, but that they are all coming off the bench and Arizona is winning games is a testament to the roster and the options it presents. Arizona’s 31.75 bench points per game rank 19th in the country, and if it isn’t broken why try to fix it? Even if a change in the starting lineup was made that would just mean an experienced player like Trey Townsend or a useful big in Tobe Awaka would be coming off the bench instead. Or maybe it would be Dell’Orso. What a luxury to have. Players will have bad games, go through slumps or run into foul trouble or injuries, and an injury to someone like Bradley would certainly set the team back. But thus far Arizona has been able to stay mostly healthy.
You should be concerned about … Arizona’s penchant for blowing leads. Understanding you should not expect to blow quality teams out and dominate from the opening tip and you cannot blow a big lead without first playing well enough to amass one, it would be nice to see Arizona’s double-digit leads remain so late into games. The team’s troubles closing opponents out cost them a game in Phoenix against UCLA and put their victory over Cincinnati in real danger. Wins are wins, but comfortable wins are nice to have every now and then, and we’ve already seen what can happen when the Cats let off the gas.
You should feel good about … the team’s ceiling. Even with Arizona seemingly finding itself, who would you say is playing really well? Or, maybe the better question is which key players aren’t? Arizona can get plenty more from veterans Love and Townsend while the youngsters like Lewis, Bryant and Veessar are still only scratching the surface of their abilities. If, and it’s a big if, everyone starts playing up to their capabilities then this will be one of the very best teams in the country.
You should be concerned about … who Arizona has yet to play. While road wins like what Arizona earned are nothing to feel bad about and the home victories are also solid, the Cats have yet to play any of Iowa State Kansas or Houston. Those three account for four of the team’s remaining matchups, with two of the games being on the road. There will also be a visit to Waco to for a rematch with Baylor, who no doubt can play better than what they showed in Tucson.
You should feel good about … this team’s experience. Similar to last year, this is not a particularly young group. There is plenty of tournament experience between Love, Townsend, Bradley and Awaka, while Lewis got his feet wet last year and Dell’Orso has played in lower-level tournaments. The big stage is not likely to phase this group, and with so many playing in what is assuredly their final collegiate season there should be no shortage of motivation to make it a memorable one.