Arizona is back at home after nearly a week on the road, a successful swing that saw it pull off victories over a pair of ranked opponents. Now comes a short home stretch that begins with a never-before-faced opponent.
UCF joined the Big 12 Conference in 2023, a year ahead of the Wildcats, and this will be the first meeting between the schools after their respective football teams did the same in November. The Knights (11-3, 2-1) are coming off a 1-point home win over Colorado on Wednesday night.
To better understand this unfamiliar opponent, we reached out to Don Strouble of SB Nation sister site Black & Gold Banneret for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his heavy answers to our lightweight questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: UCF has had quite a first week-plus of Big 12 play, opening with a shocking road win at Texas Tech and then getting blown out at home by Kansas before slipping past Colorado. Which result was most indicative of how this season is going to go?
Don Strouble: “I think that UCF will produce in a way that is akin to the performance in Lubbock and against Colorado for most of the Big 12 schedule. The Kansas loss set historic records for UCF in ways that you don’t want to set records.
“For instance, it was the worst loss at home in program history and tied for the second-worst loss overall in program history, dating back to the 80’s. I believe it was a sobering experience for the Knights to deal with that, and it challenged them to be better moving forward. Sure, there will be some more losses, but I don’t think it will be to the degree that we saw on Sunday, the team is too talented. It’s all about continued growth.”
The Knights are one of the few teams in the conference that looks like it wants to run as much as Arizona, but the efficiency hasn’t been there. What’s worked best with the ball and what needs to improve?
“This is a roster that is deep with guards, and they like to go up-tempo as a result. Coach Dawkins has said that the ball movement in general needs to improve. The Knights don’t always utilize the time available on the shot clock as much as they could and often get into iso situations that result in turnovers or missed shots. When UCF is efficiently getting into its sets, it opens up driving lanes for athletic slashers like Keyshawn Hall to go to work and either finish around the rim or get to the line.
“UCF is at its best when it can create opportunities closer to the basket, rather than passing around the perimeter simply because the Knights haven’t been the best three-point shooting team this season.”
Junior wing Keshawn Hall seems like a load at 6-foot-7 and 250 pounds. He also leads the team in scoring and rebounding. How big of a pickup was this from the portal, and what makes him so effective?-
“As I mentioned in the prior question, Keyshawn Hall is athletic. This was a big pickup for the Knights because now they have someone who can go and get you 20 alongside Darius Johnson, which has been especially vital given the nagging back issues that last season’s leading scorer, Jaylin Sellers, has been dealing with.
“Hall is a physical wing with a nice handle and a great step that is tough to guard. He hails from Cleveland, and he credits his ‘go at you’ attitude to his roots in the blue-collar city, and it shows. Hall is not afraid of contact, but he is also skillful enough in his handles and getting to his opposite hand to convert down low. Even if he misses, he can get to the line.
“Hall has also showcased his strength as a three-level scorer. He can work you in the mid-range, and he can convert from deep. Something I’ve noticed about his perimeter shooting, especially in the Texas Tech game, was his use of a jab step to challenge the contest and knock down a triple.”
UCF’s average height (78.1 inches, per KenPom) is slightly taller than Arizona but it has been outrebounded for the season. What gives?
“Coach Dawkins said after the loss to Kansas that this team hangs its hat on defense and rebounding, which is a sentiment that he has echoed throughout the season. A lot of it comes down to positioning and effort, which Dawkins has also alluded to. After a nonconference game in December, Dawkins said there is an art to boxing out, and that you aren’t going to beat someone with just athleticism. Another important thing of note is the continued development of 7-foot-2 big man Moustapha Thiam. Thiam has found himself in foul trouble often this season, which leaves him on the bench instead of on the floor battling on the boards.”
This will be UCF’s third game in seven days and comes after playing on Wednesday night followed by a cross-country flight. Will depth or fatigue be an issue?
“Fifth year guard Jordan Ivy-Curry said after the win against Colorado that the Knights will continue to stay engaged and take care of their bodies with the upcoming road trip. Dawkins also expressed sticking to a routine and being ready to compete. While I’m sure the team will hope to have Jaylin Sellers back, they have to be ready to go regardless because the schedule will not cater to fatigue or depth.”
Johnny Dawkins is an old friend of Arizona’s from his Pac-12 days at Stanford, where he was 1-13 against the Wildcats and lost by an average of 17.7 points in Tucson. How would you assess his tenure in Orlando?
“With a record of 159-106 at UCF, Dawkins has been effective. He has elevated the team to new heights, which was highlighted by the 2019 NCAA Championship run, where UCF nearly upset a Duke team that had Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett.
“Dawkins’ success earned him a recent contract extension last summer, which will bring his tenure in Orlando to nearly a decade. Dawkins has been known as a culture builder, part of which drew internet hoops sensation Mikey Williams to transfer to UCF. While UCF may not live in the upper echelon of college basketball, it’s hard to deny the positive impact Johnny Dawkins has had during his tenure here.”
Prediction time. Does UCF pull off another road shocker or does Arizona remain unbeaten in its first season of Big 12 play? Give us a score prediction.
“Since UCF was able to open Big 12 play with a win on the road as an underdog, there’s reason to believe that it can happen again. Caleb Love and others are going to be a handful, but if the Knights limit their mistakes and play the brand of basketball they are accustomed to, I think they can steal one in Tucson. However, it’s going to be close. Final score: UCF 73, Arizona 71.