KANSAS CITY, MO — Regardless of who finished eighth and who finished ninth, the likelihood was always that the Arizona Wildcats (19-12, 10-8 Big 12) and Colorado Buffaloes (19-11, 9-9 Big 12) would face off for the right to face top-seeded TCU in the Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tournament quarterfinals on Friday. Ninth-seeded CU made that a reality by holding on to defeat No. 16 Houston in the first round on Wednesday afternoon.
Arizona received a bye into the second round by virtue of winding up in the top half of the league in its first Big 12 season. The battle for the eighth seed lasted until the final weekend. The Wildcats moved ahead of the Buffs by beating ASU while CU lost to Texas Tech.
It’s a huge game for both teams, and it’s not just a matter of moving ahead in the conference tournament. Arizona came into the league tourney at No. 56 in the NET. CU came in at No. 57. The Buffs won the only regular season meeting, which was played in Boulder. Both are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives and a win in the second round would go a long way in helping reach that goal.
The Wildcats are currently second on ESPN’s list of the first four teams out of the tournament. The Buffaloes were on the “next four out” list before they lost to Texas Tech.
The Buffs might have beaten Arizona in early February, but they haven’t had an easy go of it lately. The loss to Texas Tech to end the regular season was part of a 2-5 slide since that win over the Wildcats in Boulder. The lone wins came against ASU and Houston, which finished 15th and 16th, respectively.
Things weren’t easy against the Cougars in Kansas City, either. The Buffaloes were up by 18 with 7:47 to go in the game. Just over a minute later, starting guard Kindyll Wetta fouled out. Houston cut the lead to five points with 25 seconds to go before CU closed it out on free throws, winning 66-58.
There were lessons and warnings for Arizona in Colorado’s outing against Houston.
The Buffs made a killing by driving to the hoop. The Wildcats have had difficulty stopping guards who drive. It often ends up with the Arizona posts picking up fouls when the perimeter defense breaks down.
The Wildcats could not contain Jade Masogayo in the first half when the two teams met in Boulder. It will be important to mark her and Wetta this time around.
Houston was able to fluster the CU ballhandlers into turnovers. Wetta and Kennedy Sanders combined for 11 assists. They also combined for 12 turnovers. As a team, the Buffs committed 33 turnovers. It was a major factor in the Cougars’ comeback.
The Wildcats average 10.3 steals per game, ranking 36th in the country. They force 18.8 opponent turnovers per game, ranking 53rd in the country. Playing to those advantages will be vital for UA.
The two teams will get started at 12:30 p.m. MST on ESPN+. The program is holding a fan watch party at the Sands Club inside Arizona Stadium. Doors open at noon MST.
By the numbers
Ratings and rankings
NET: Arizona was No. 56 in the NET before the start of the tournament. Colorado was No. 57.
Her Hoop Stats: Arizona is ranked No. 61, with the 88th-best offense and the 39th-best defense according to the stats site. Colorada is No. 62, with the 62nd-best offense and the 79th-best defense.
Massey: CU is No. 42 according to the Massey ratings. Arizona is No. 46.
Probabilities and projections
Her Hoop Stats: The stats service makes this game a tossup on a neutral court. Arizona is the nominal favorite with a 50.9% win probability on at a neutral site. The Wildcats are favored by 0.2 points. Their point total is projected at 66.2 while the Buffs are projected at 65.9
Massey: Massey projects that CU will win. The most likely score is 66-64. The probability is 53 percent.