It’s a far cry from 20 in a row, but Arizona’s current 3-game losing streak has elicited the same kind of angst from fans as was seen throughout that stretch from 2019-21 when the Wildcats didn’t win a game. That’s kind of ridiculous when you think about it, but it also speaks to how high the expectations were coming into the 2024 season.
Reality has been much different, with the UA sitting at 3-4 overall and 1-3 in Big 12 play heading into Saturday’s Family Weekend contest against West Virginia. The Mountaineers have the same records, with their last two losses at home to ranked opponents, making this a must win for both sides.
“That’s every game in college football,” UA coach Brent Brennan said when asked if this was a must win game. “You’re in a one week season. Nothing matters if you don’t take care of business this week.”
Here’s what to watch for when the UA and West Virginia meet on Saturday afternoon at Arizona Stadium:
Another batch of new starters
In going 10-3 and finishing on a 7-game win streak in 2023, Arizona managed to avoid any significant injuries along the way. The Wildcats started 39 different players on offense or defense, with only 19 games missed by starters due to injury.
The UA had started 37 different players through the first seven games of this fall, with 26 games lost to injury. And that was before linebacker Jacob Manu and offensive tackle Rhino Tapa’toutai went down with season-ending injuries in the first half against Colorado.
Sophomore Kamuela Ka’aihue and Michael Wooten are expected to replace Manu and Tapa’toutai, respectively, in the starting lineup, but there could be more changes. Nevada transfer Joey Capra appears to have worked his way into more playing time on the interior of the offensive line, while cornerback Tacario Davis has been dealing with a nagging injury that caused him to leave the last two games and could lead to Demetrius Freeney getting his first start.
Nine different UA players started all 13 games in 2023, while no more than six will be making their eighth straight start of 2024 against West Virginia.
“We’re at the stage in the college football season where someone has to pick up the flag, and someone has to go out there and do the job,” Brennan said, speaking specifically about Wooten but also in general about Arizona’s injury replacements.
Scheduled balance
The 3-game skid has seen Arizona trail for all but about 43 minutes, with only lead or tie in the second half. Playing from behind has led to having to throw more than maybe originally intended, as the Wildcats have dropped back nearly 66 percent of the time the last three games.
Which is a shame, because when the UA devotes itself to running the ball the results are usually pretty good.
Arizona is averaging 4.93 yards per carry, 5.49 when you take away sack losses. The Wildcats’ 5.4 YPC on 1st down ranks 30th in FBS and fifth in the Big 12, and they actually get first-down yardage more than 18 percent of the time when rushing on that initial snap.
“We’re always trying to stay balanced, and a huge part for me is making sure that we are efficient in the right spot so we can remain balanced,” play caller Matt Adkins said. “I think a big piece for us is trying to stay on schedule in terms of down and distance. When we are playing our best football, we are in a good second down situation and in a good third down situation.”
Against Colorado, Arizona had designed 1st-down runs 15 times but only averaged 3.07 yards, with five of those for no gain and another four getting three or less. The biggest gains all came on scrambles by Noah Fifita on what had begun as pass plays.
Unfortunately, this may not be the game to overemphasize the run. West Virginia is third in the conference, allowing 3.65 yards per carry, while the Mountaineers’ pass defense is second-to-last and they have only six sacks in four Big 12 games.
Balance also means spreading the ball around in the pass game to as many players as possible while still giving the best player on the field a good amount of targets.
Tetairoa McMillan was targeted only five times against Colorado, though it’s probably better to say “thrown to” because there were definitely other times he was the target before Fifita was sacked or fled the pocket. McMillan was averaging more than 11 targets per game before last week, though the two times he’s gotten fewer than eight (including vs. NAU) it was against defenses bracketing him in coverage.
“T is obviously an amazing player, everyone in Tucson knows that, but also everyone across the country knows that,” Adkins said. “So he is dictating a lot of coverage, which opens up opportunities for other guys. And we just need to make sure when those opportunities pop up that we’re capitalizing on them.”
There’s been a lot of online discussion about McMillan’s body language this season. Brennan isn’t buying that.
“T-Mac is not a complainer at all, that’s not his nature,” Brennan said. “He’s a team-first guy all the time. He’s the type of the player that knows he can help fix some of the challenges that we’ve had.”
Nickels or dimes
Defensive coordinator Duane Akina said the best practice is to always design your game plan around stopping the opponent’s starting quarterback, but it’s unclear of West Virginia’s starter is going to play. Garrett Greene suffered a head injury last week against Kansas State and may be out, putting backup Nicco Marchiol in as starter.
The two Mountaineer passers are very different. Greene is a senior who leads the team in rushing while throwing for nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns, while Marchiol is a sophomore who throws left-handed. That completely changes how the UA will defend West Virginia’s RPO attack.
“It’s not going to change, they’re not going to reinvent their offense in four days, they’re still going to run the same offense,” Akina said. “The emphasis may be different, but for us right now, we just got to worry about ourselves.”
That worry starts with what kind of alignment to have beyond the 4-man defensive line. Even before Manu got hurt last week Arizona was running dime, with six defensive backs and one linebacker, and that could be the case again this week. Safeties Dalton Johnson and Genesis Smith both have the skillset to play linebacker, if needed, which may end up leading to them playing closer to the line against an RPO attack.
It’s been mixing and matching for a while, as Smith has started at three different positions and Owen Goss, who started the last two games, has already dime corner, boundary safety and Star.
“It’s gotten easier throughout the year, just because as the year progresses, it kind of becomes more of a concept,” Goss said. “You understand the defense more the more reps you get. I feel like I’m getting just better with all of them understanding the concept as a whole, not really think out there as much as in the beginning.”