A win keeps the bowl hopes alive
Arizona has two games left to play this season. Win both, including the Territorial Cup next week at home, and the Wildcats can somewhat salvage the year by getting to play in a bowl game.
But none of that matters if the UA can’t win Saturday at TCU in its road finale. And while the big rivalry game is right around the corner, the focus has to be on now, coach Brent Brennan said Thursday.
“When you get so focused on down the road, that’s the worst place for us to be, because we’re missing the importance of what’s happening right now,” Brennan said. “We’re missing the importance of this meeting or this rep at practice or whatever, or this game or this opportunity. So just everybody’s been so locked into what we need to get done today, and that has been a consistent message for us, really heavily the last month in trying to make sure that we can’t worry about what’s down the road, because none of that matters. All that matters is what we’re doing right now.”
Arizona (4-6, 2-5 Big 12) ended a 5-game losing streak last week with a home win over Houston, but now it takes on a team in TCU (6-4, 4-3) that has won three of four and is one of nine schools still alive for a spot in the conference title game. The Horned Frogs will be having Senior Day in front of a sold out crowd, and Arizona has looked terrible in its last two road games, losing at BYU and UCF by a combined score of 97-31.
Here’s what to watch for in Arizona’s road finale:
A fast start, or at least not a disastrous one
Arizona has scored first six times this season, including in all four of its wins, but hasn’t scored on its opening possession since the BYU game. It has been outscored 66-51 in the first quarter, and only three times this season have the Wildcats taken a lead after trailing at any point in a game.
In other words: the first 15 minutes should dictate how the remaining 45 go for Arizona.
“You would like to get a good a good start in the game and feel good about where you’re at, and try and keep that from becoming a frenzy in their stadium,” Brennan said. “I felt like we’ve experienced some of that this year, both the good side and the bad side of that. And so I think it’s really important.”
TCU has outscored opponent 69-55 in the first quarter, including 52-28 in Big 12 play and 48-10 at home. The only game the Horned Frogs have trailed after one period at home was against Houston, a game they lost 30-19.
Run vs. pass
Arizona and TCU are 13th and 15th, respectively, in the Big 12 in rushing, which would make this seem like it will be a pass-heavy game, especially since the Horned Frogs lead the conference and are 6th in FBS in passing at 329.6 yards per game. But both teams are better at defending the pass than the run and neither has shown the ability to stop opposing ground games.
TCU, which averages 110 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry, is coming off a season-best 175 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma State, while the 122 Arizona gained against Houston (155 if you remove sack yardage) was its best since the win at Utah.
The Frogs have allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times, so this could be a big game for Quali Conley and Kedrick Reescano. But it could also be a big one for TCU’s ground attack, which in the past three games has seen wide receivers score three rushing TDs.
“We tell our guys, you gotta stop the run before you can have some fun,” defensive backs coach Brett Arce said. “You gotta be willing to get in there and get physical and stop the run game. So for the guys up front, you don’t have the ability to rush the passer until you stop the run.”
Air approach
TCU’s Josh Hoover is completing 67.7 percent of his passes and has thrown 22 TDs against eight interceptions, spreading the ball to four receivers who have 500 or more yards including top target Jack Bech (56 catches, 982 yards, nine scores). Hoover gets the ball out very fast, negating whatever pass rush Arizona is going to get, so the coverage from the back line will be very important.
But Arizona still has to create some pressure or its coverage will have to hold up for much longer, which is a big ask.
“You can’t allow him to stand back there all day and pick you apart and have all times to do it,” Brennan said. “The biggest thing is, when you do pressure him, or you do get there, you gotta get him down. You gotta make a tackle.”
Arizona has 12 sacks in its eight games against Big 12 opponents, including the nonconference game at Kansas State, while TCU has given up only 11 all season with nine in league play.
The Horned Frogs will likely press Arizona’s receivers, meaning the Wildcats will need to “win fast” in their one-on-one matchups.
“When you’re working against press defender, the longer you’re standing face to face with him—this is wide receiver coaching 101—the longer you’re face to face, the longer you’re you’re not winning,” Brennan said. “So you want to press him vertically as fast as you can, and so we got to do a good job of either moving him and getting to an edge and getting vertical as fast as we or by being physical at the line of scrimmage and creating some space with him, then we can operate downfield.”
Turnover swords travel
Arizona forced three takeaways last week against Houston, finishing the game plus-2 in turnover margin. It was only the second game this season the Wildcats won the turnover battle, the other the win at Utah (+1).
They’re minus-6 in the three other road games, giving up 28 points off turnovers in those losses. For the year UA opponents have scored 73 points off takeaways.
“I think that’s one of those statistics that always leads to the outcome,” Brennan said. “It’s one of the best predictors of winning and losing. Noah (Fifita) needs to do a great job with with where he goes for football, we gotta do a great job protecting him against really good defensive front. And then anybody that carries it needs to be strong with the ball and really keep you know four points of pressure and and understand how important it is that they’re possessing it, that they at the end of the play to hand it to the official.”
TCU isn’t great in this area, scoring 26 off 10 takeaways (compared to 53 for opponents) and sitting minus-8 in turnover margin for 2024 to tie with Utah for worst in the Big 12.