Should be a fun one!
The calendar still says November, but it’s gonna feel like March in McKale Center on Friday night. Arizona and Duke, two of the top programs in college basketball, meet in one of the most-anticipated home games in school history.
No. 12 Duke (3-1) is making its first visit to Tucson since 1991, playing a rare nonconference road game that is the return trip of a home-and-home series that began last year when No. 17 Arizona (2-1) went to Cameron Indoor Stadium and won 78-73.
“It’s an honor to have them come to Tucson to play us,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said Thursday. “I’m thankful for the opportunity.”
This is the second in a string of challenging nonconference games for Arizona, which lost 103-88 at Wisconsin last Friday for its first November loss under Lloyd. Next week the Wildcats head to the Bahamas for the Battle4Atlantis, opening against Davidson before playing two more games including potential matchups with No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 16 Indiana.
Here’s what to watch for when the Wildcats and Blue Devils meet in a late-night (tip is 8:30 p.m. MT) battle:
Bounceback boys
The loss at Wisconsin was the 21st in 111 games under Lloyd, an .811 win percentage that trails only Gonzaga’s Mark Few (.835) among active Division I coaches. None of those 21 setbacks have come in consecutive games, a streak to start his career nearly twice as long as any other coach in D-I history.
The move to the Big 12 Conference, which features six ranked teams and everyone in the league within the top 100 of KenPom ratings, makes it very likely that streak will come to an end sometime this season. But after losing at Wisconsin that run could end even earlier, as KenPom projects Duke to win 79-78.
Part of what has kept Arizona from losing back-to-back games under Lloyd has been his teams’ ability to play some of their best basketball immediately after a loss, winning by an average of 17.1 points following a regular-season setback.
This is a much tougher post-loss opponent, but that doesn’t change the mindset, Lloyd said.
“We’re approaching it like we would after any other bounceback-type game,” he said. “I felt like we’ve addressed a lot of things (from the Wisconsin loss) in practice. That doesn’t guarantee that they’re all solved. I’m sure things will still continue to pop up. We have good dudes. Obviously they know we lost last game. They know we didn’t maybe play as well as we’d hoped. So let’s kind of circle the wave and see what it looks like tomorrow night. That’s the mindset.”
In need of an individual bounceback is Caleb Love, who fouled out at Wisconsin and finished with six points on 2-of-13 shooting in 25 minutes. Things started bad and stayed that way after Love was whistled for a foul and then hit with a technical, leading to a 7-point play for the Badgers.
“Obviously, it wasn’t one Caleb’s better games, he knows that,” Lloyd said. “I was disappointed in how he responded to that situation early in the game and and he knows that, you can’t be given up a 7-point play on the road. There’s just no reason for it. Keep your hands to yourself. I mean, it’s easy, and you know, what people are going to say stuff to you, walk away. I mean, it’s about winning the game. It ain’t about winning a personal battle. Caleb’s been in this situation before, and he’s my guy, and he’s going to bounce back. Hopefully this will be just another learning lesson for him.”
In his first season at Arizona, Love averaged 20.5 points after losses compared to 18.0 for the season.
Board battle
Arizona leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage, pulling down 50 percent of its missed shots, and is second nationally in defensive rebound percentage. The Wildcats outrebounded Wisconsin 52-28 and had 24 offensive boards, to two for the Badgers.
Duke is top 60 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and with every rotation player at least 6-foot-5 the Blue Devils are the tallest team in college basketball at an average of 79.5 inches (the UA is 33rd at 78.3). It’s very unlikely Arizona will dominate the boards in this one, which means maximizing the opportunities when they get them.
“On every offensive rebound you want to score,” Lloyd said. “Offensive rebounding usually leads to some of the most efficient shots in the game, because you’re close to the basket, there’s foul pressure.”
Yet the UA has only translated about half of those second chances into scores, getting 66 points off 65 offensive rebounds. And most of those aren’t coming on putbacks, defined as shots taken at the rim within four seconds of an offensive board.
Per Hoop-Math.com, the UA has only attempted six putbacks in three games, with Tobe Awaka taking four and making three. Last year Arizona averaged more than four putback attempts per game.
“Usually, if it’s not a clear shot I’m going to kick it out,” said Awaka, who is averaging 6.3 offensive rebounds per game. He ranks second in the country in offensive rebound rate (28.8 percent).
Fouls and free throws
If there are 63 fouls called on Friday night, as there was a week ago in Madison, it will really take away from the matchup. Then again, if the officiating crew calls a tight game, Arizona will need to react accordingly.
Lloyd didn’t feel Arizona properly adjusted to the way the Wisconsin game was called, and while the Badgers ended up committing one more foul they also got to the line seven more times and went 41 of 47 compared to 28 of 40 for the Wildcats.
“You don’t want to be behind the free throw index 23-2 in the first half, it’s really hard to overcome that,” Lloyd said. “That’s not nothing on refereeing that’s just on, we’ve got to do a better job as players and coaches of managing that.”
Lloyd said he’s tried to pay close attention when watching games on TV how they’re being called to see if he can spot any trends and then adjust his gameplan to that. But it won’t take away from his team’s aggressiveness.
“We can’t have one game on the road early in the year kind of knock us off our path with our confidence and conviction for how we play,” he said. “We’re a physical team and we’re not going to run away from that.”
Awaka fouled out in only 20 minutes at Wisconsin, with three of his fouls coming trying to pull down a defensive rebound.
“I just have be a little bit more disciplined,” he said. “I probably could have done better on the defensive glass.”
Youth vs. experience
Only two of Arizona’s 11 scholarship players are seniors, including Love in his fifth year, but there are also four players in their third year of college. Compare that to Duke, which starts three freshmen who will be playing their first collegiate road game.
The Wildcats already got to play in a tough road environment last week, while the likes of No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg have never been in that kind of environment. The 6-foot-9 Flagg, projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, has been stellar so far with 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists, but in Duke’s loss to Kentucky in the Champions Classic in Atlanta it was his turnovers late that kept the Blue Devils from rallying.
That’s what these early games are for, though, Lloyd said. It’s a lot easier to learn about your team by facing tough competition than scheduling a bunch of walkovers.
“I think (Duke coach Jon Scheyer) and I are both trying to build our programs for the long haul, and we’re not going to get caught up in a tough game,” Lloyd said. “I don’t know how many programs would do what he and I are doing with scheduling. He’s trying to give his team the experiences he thinks he needs to give them so they can be great in conference play. And we’re doing the same.
“Maybe the last couple years we won a couple of those early games, and so everyone thinks you have all the answers when you don’t. Then you lose a couple of games, doesn’t mean you’re gonna have a bad year.”