During the 13 years that Arizona was in the Pac-12 it played 22 conference games against ranked opponents, twice facing four in one season. Last season it had one Top 25 league matchup and four times had none.
When the Wildcats take on No. 25 Baylor on Tuesday night at McKale Center it will mark the third ranked opponent in their first five games of Big 12 play. Several more are on the docket, as the UA has two games scheduled against No. 2 Iowa State and one each with No. 9 Kansas and No. 10 Houston.
In other words, the Big 12 is shaping up to be as much of a gauntlet in men’s basketball as expected, which makes starting out 4-0 quite impressive. But based on coach Tommy Lloyd’s postgame comments after Saturday night’s 88-80 home win over UCF, that unbeaten start means nothing.
“4-0 could also be 4-16 if you don’t handle it the right way,” he said. “So we got to handle it the right way.”
Lloyd was arguably the most upset he’s been in a postgame press conference during his four seasons at Arizona, using words like “dumb” and “casual” to describe the performance against UCF. The Wildcats were up 14 midway through the first half only to see the Knights tie it right before halftime and early in the second half, and then a 17-point lead after halftime was cut in half down the stretch.
That came against a team ranked 75th by KenPom.com, which is 12th-best in the Big 12. Baylor is No. 18, three spots behind Arizona, and the next road trip begins with a visit to Texas Tech (No. 17).
“It’s a 20-game grind,” Lloyd said. “Every game matters. Every win matters. At the end of the season, teams are going to finish one to 16, and every team is going to be able to go back and look at that table and say, ‘Man, we would have played a little better at game three.’ We would be at this seed instead of that seed, you know. So this stuff matters. It matters. It matters now.”
Here’s what to look for when the UA and Baylor battle in a late-night (9 p.m. MT) clash on ESPN:
Board work
Arizona is one of the top rebounding teams in the country, its +9.4 margin on the boards 10th in Division I and behind only BYU (10.2) in the Big 12. But last time out the Wildcats were woeful in that area, particularly on the offensive glass, as UCF pulled down 20 offensive boards that led to 23 second-chance points.
The 20 offensive rebounds were the most allowed by Arizona since Utah had 21 in a triple-overtime game last season, and the most in regulation in almost three years.
“They kicked our ass on the glass,” Lloyd said of UCF. “I heard there were some good block outs, but when the assistant coaches are telling you there’s some good block outs that means there’s a lot of really bad block outs.”
A similar performance against Baylor could spell doom, because the Bears’ offense is built around second-chance points. They grab 37.5 percent of their misses, 21st-best in Division I (Arizona is 9th at 38.7), and average 14.5 second-chance points per game.
The UA averages just below 14, but more importantly was giving up 9.9 before UCF’s 23.
Forward Tobe Awaka said many of the Knights’ offensive boards were the result of Arizona not getting in proper position to grab misses on 3-pointers, but 10 were off 2-point shots and two off missed free throws. Awaka said the coaching staff will put together a plan to fix that before Baylor.
“Lots of rebounding drills, boxing out drills,” he said. “We’ll watch film first and translate it to practice and stuff like that. Coach is a great coach. He knows what it takes to win, so he’s gonna hold us to a high standard.”
The foul factor
It didn’t end up happening, but Arizona had the potential to face some real foul trouble after both Awaka and Henri Veesaar as well as guards Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis picked up two apiece before halftime. A lot of that was due to UCF’s aggressive nature on offense.
Baylor isn’t nearly as assertive, averaging only 17.1 free throws per game compared to 23, and the Bears are 320th out of 364 Division I teams in free throw attempt rate. They’re also 228th nationally in defensive FTA rate, an area that the UA can try to exploit since their opponent doesn’t have a deep bench.
The Bears used only seven players in Saturday’s overtime win at ASU, with one reserve logging just 10 minutes. Drawing early fouls could force Baylor to use untested reserves and give Arizona some individual matchup advantages.
Another matchup nightmare
Speaking of disadvantages, UCF’s Keyshawn Hall used all of his 6-foot-7, 250-pound frame to muscle his way around various Arizona defenders on his way to 22 points, getting 15 of those on layups or free throws. Baylor has a similarly sized Norchad Omier, a 6-7 senior who leads the Bears in scoring (15.9) and rebounding (10.6) with the latter number tops in the Big 12.
Omier had 19 and 8 at ASU and has eight double-doubles. He would likely be defended at the outset by 6-6 Trey Townsend, who struggled mightily against Hall, though no one else did much better.
Though he didn’t identify anyone, Lloyd may have been referring to Townsend after the UCF game when he made multiple mentions of guys “playing heavy minutes” but not doing their job. He also hinted at the possibility of a change in usage, whether that be adjusting the starting lineup or just playing someone less.
“I could try to put them in better positions, and maybe the best position might be off the court,” Lloyd said. “Those are conversations we’re going to have. Winning is important and we need to value those opportunities.”