It’s been a tremendous start for Arizona in the Big 12, sitting tied for first with preseason favorites Houston and Iowa State. It’s the ninth time since joining the Pac-10 in the late 1970s that the Wildcats have begun at least 5-0 in league play, and each of the previous eight times that has resulted in at least a share of the regular season conference title.
But as Tommy Lloyd noted after Tuesday’s 81-70 win over No. 25 Baylor, the 20-game Big 12 schedule is the equivalent of running a mile and Arizona (12-5) has only finished the first of four laps.
The second trip around the track begins Saturday with the start of another 2-game road trip, this one starting Saturday at 12 p.m. MT against Texas Tech. The UA will then face Oklahoma State on Tuesday night.
Arizona swept the previous road swing, winning at then-ranked Cincinnati and West Virginia, victories that helped turn around a season that was teetering after going 4-5 in nonconference play.
“I think we know we needed that for our season and our conference, that we can win on the road,” guard KJ Lewis said.
Here’s what to watch for when the Wildcats battle the Red Raiders (12-4, 3-2) in Lubbock on ESPN2:
A rough and tumble opponent
“Gritty” was how Lloyd describe the Red Raiders, who have the 10th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country per KenPom.com and rank 51st in defense. Their field goal percentage (50.5) is No. 8 in Division I and they make nearly 40 percent of their 3-point attempts, 37.9 percent in Big 12 play.
“They know what wins for them, and they’re able to force you to react to those situations,” Lloyd said. “They’re not afraid to do something over and over again. As we counter, they can counter, so they do a good job of kind of playing the chess match a little bit.”
What impresses Lloyd the most, though, is Texas Tech’s offensive rebounding. It is 16th nationally, collecting 37.8 percent of its misses, slightly behind Arizona’s 38.2 for the season, but in Big 12 games the Red Raiders are first at 39.2 percent.
And that’s despite being the “smallest” team in the league, with an average height of 76.7 inches. Sophomore forward JT Toppin is Tech’s tallest starter, at 6-foot-9, while 6-11 Federiko Federiko plays about 20 minutes per game off the bench.
Their physical stature may not be big, but they’re physical,” Lloyd said. “They’re just well-drilled. I think a lot of it is just effort, effort and persistence. Offensive rebounding is one of those things: if you go one out of 10 times, you may or may not get the ball. Even if you get the ball, you’re a bad offensive rebounder. If you go nine out of 10 times, and you may not get the ball, but then the next 10 times, if you go nine out of 10 times, you might get five. So there’s a persistence to offensive rebounding and the consistency you need to have and they have it. They’ve done a really good job with their guys, identifying their roles and holding guys accountable to do their job. To me, that’s the one a lot of what offensive rebounding is.”
Regarding Henri
After his career-high 19-point performance against Baylor, Bears coach Scott Drew referred to Henri Veesaar as a pro. Not bad for someone who entered the season third on Arizona’s depth chart at center.
Veesaar is averaging 12.4 points and 6.6 rebounds in Big 12 play, shooting 70.3 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3. And that’s off the bench, as Tobe Awaka remains the starting center though Veesaar is playing more minutes in conference games.
After the Baylor game, Lloyd said he told Veesaar that he’s now on opposing teams’ scouting report. With that extra scrutiny comes the need for him to adapt and adjust, as well as an understanding that a regression to the mean is due to happen at some point.
“We got to figure out what his mean is, and hopefully his mean is pretty high,” Lloyd said. “I’m on him. I’m letting him know that, just because you’ve been trending in the right direction recently, doesn’t mean it’s going to continue. And so I’ve really been on him to not take things for granted and not think it’s just going to happen. Because inevitably, there’s going to be a game or two at some point where it probably doesn’t go his way. But if he continues to do the things that have made him successful, I think he’s got a chance to be a consistent performer. And I really like consistent performers.”
Build and maintain
In starting 5-0 in the Big 12, Arizona has won by an average of 10.4 points. But the Wildcats have had double-digit leads in the first half of every game only to see that margin dwindle considerably each time.
Baylor was the most recent example, with a 27-point lead early in the second half getting down to nine with 2:17 to go, this after blowing a 14-point lead to UCF before halftime and a 17-point edge with 5:56 to go cut by more than half. The most glaring example in conference play came at Cincinnati, where the Wildcats were up 13 at the half and 19 with 13:39 remaining but then found themselves tied in the final minute before winning by five.
“It’s just something we got to focus on, I got to figure out why is it happening,” Lloyd said after UCF. “Is it human nature? Is it fatigue? Is it a little bit of selfishness? These are the things I got to figure out.”
Lewis said Arizona should never consider any lead safe in the Big 12.
“I think every team in the Big 12 is going to fight to the end,” he said. “We got to get accustomed to that, that every team that we’re going to play now in conference is going to fight for 40 minutes, and I think we got to be ready for that. I think these past two games, UCF and Baylor, is a true testament … of how tough a Big 12 schedule is.”
The biggest comeback win in league play so far is 13, by Iowa State at Texas Tech last Saturday. That dropped the Red Raiders to 0-2 at home in the Big 12, compared to 3-0 on the road.
All roads lead through Midland
Lloyd and Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland are roughly the same age—Lloyd turned 50 last month, while McCasland is 48—and each has been in the business since the early 2000s. But while Lloyd is in his fourth season as a head coach, after 21 as an assistant at Gonzaga, McCasland has won more than 400 games with stops at the junior college and Division II level as well as stints with Arkansas State and North Texas before taking over the Red Raiders program last season.
It was during McCasland’s JUCO days, at Midland College in Texas, where he and Lloyd first met on the recruiting trail. They became friends and have remained close, with McCasland serving as an assistant under Lloyd with Team USA’s U18 squad last summer and again this summer for the FIBA U19 World Cup in Switzerland.
Lloyd ran his Arizona offense with Team USA, which means McCasland got to know the Wildcats’ plays up close.
“I’m sure he’s really familiar with what we do, which is fine,” Lloyd said. “Whether he’s familiar or not we still got to execute.”
Midland is also where most of Lewis’ family currently lives, including his mother and grandmother. They’ll be part of a contingent of roughly 50 people expected to attend the game at United Supermakets Arena in Lubbock, which is about two hours north of Midland.
“I took a visit there before I committed to Arizona,” Lewis said. “Anybody that grows up in West Texas wants to go to Tech, but obviously I was different because I always wanted to come here.”