No…. The other one…
2024 overview
- Rating: 4.35
- MLB Stats: 11 G, 10.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.125 WHIP, 0.1 bWAR
- Date of birth: July 8, 1996 (27-year-old season)
- Earnings: Pre-arbitration
- 2025 status: On the 40-man roster, two options remaining
2024 review
Nelson had a rough start to his major-league career, with a 12.19 ERA across his first eleven appearances in 2020-21. That led to him being placed on waivers by the Guardians after the 2021 season, from where the D-backs snapped him up. He made a great first impression, posting a 2.19 ERA across 39 innings in 2022, but wasn’t able to follow it up as effectively, the ERA increasing to 4.18 in 2023. He struggled down the stretch and was left off the D-backs for the NL Wild-card Series. But Kyle got added to the roster for the NL Division Series, in place of Bryce Jarvis, and subsequently had a 3.60 ERA across five post-season appearances.
This pre-season, after working around a groin issue in early spring, he beat out Andrew Saalfrank for an Opening Day spot. That went right to the wire, however, Saalfrank being almost the last cut. Things started well, with Nelson not allowing a run over his first eight appearances, covering 9.1 innings and giving up only three hits. However, something went wrong in the second half of April. Nelson made three further appearances, and was scored on in all of them, facing a total of eleven batters, but retiring just four, on five hits (including two home-runs) and a pair of walks. There was clearly something not right with Kyle, and so it proved.
April 23rd proved a date that will live in infamy, as the Diamondbacks had to put THREE pitchers on the injured list in one day. As well as Merrill Kelly and Miguel Castro, Nelson was taken out of action, with what was described at the time as “left shoulder inflammation.” A week later, it turned out to be rather different, as he was diagnosed with Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This is a little different from the Vascular TOS experienced by Merrill Kelly in 2020. While the underlying cause is similar, Kelly’s condition compressed the blood vessels, while Nelson’s affected the nerves in his shoulder, and is the more common condition among pitchers.
Nelson told Torey Lovullo he’d been experiencing symptoms for a while – even before the runs allowed started coming. Said the manager, “He has been trying to gut this out and eventually spoke up. It was unfortunate that he’s going to have to step away and miss some time, but he’s going to get healthy and help us win games again. That should be his mind-set.” The procedure to address the issue was carried out Dr. Gregory Pearl, the same Texas surgeon who worked on Kelly. At the time, the problem was fully expected to end Nelson’s season, and he was moved to the 60-day Injured List. He remained there for the rest of the year, until being put back on the 40-man roster on November 4th.
2025 outlook
There has been literally nothing I’ve been able to find reported about Nelson’s status since the procedure. However, the fact that the team opted to tender Kyle a contract for the 2025 season is, hopefully, a good sign that his recovery is proceeding as planned. If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that the problem reared its head at the beginning of the season, effectively giving him nine and a half months after the surgery, before pitchers and catchers report again in mid-February. That should hopefully give him enough time to be well on the road back, though after such a long lay-off, there’s going to be a significant amount of rust to be knocked off Nelson’s arm.
Health taken as read, he’s going to be in the mix for a left-handed relief spot again. However, the arrival mid-season of southpaw A.J. Puk, who performed very well as a D-back, has potentially pushed Nelson down the depth chart. He’s likely third among LHRP, behind Puk and Joe Mantiply. At least Saalfrank would provide any spring competition this year, his one year suspension not being over until June. Will Torey Lovullo go with a third left-hander in the bullpen? With potentially eight slots there, it’s more likely than with a seven-man ‘pen: it may be a case of “best man available” for the final position, regardless of arm. Nelson will have to compete in spring, but that’s business as usual for him.
Even if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, the odds are he’s going to be high up on the list down in Reno, and he’s going to get his chance at some point. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Be healthy and pitching with full effort in spring, Kyle: you can deal with everything else after that.