The biggest breakout of the season?
Overview
- Rating: 7.70
- 2024 Stats: 28 G, 150.2 IP, 10-6, 4.24 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, 3.74 FIP, 1.7 bWAR
- Date of Birth: 2/1/1998 (age 26 season)
- 2024 Earnings: Pre-arbitration
- 2025 Status: pre-arbitration eligible
Review
The Dbacks in 2024 would’ve been absolutely sunk without Ryne Nelson. With injuries to the rest of the rotation minus Pfaadt, the Dbacks really needed Ryne Nelson to step up in a big way and he absolutely did. There were legitimate stretches last season where Nelson was this team’s best pitcher. In the second half, Nelson went 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 64 innings. His numbers in the second half could’ve been even better had shoulder inflammation not interrupted his hot streak.
On the season as a whole, there is some pretty strong evidence that he struggled from some bad luck especially in the first half of the season given his 3.74 FIP and his xERA being lower than his actual.
As a pitcher, Nelson brings a rare combination of power and control. Its no secret that his bread and butter is his fastball, and he throws it often.
The Fastball
I just felt like this pitch being what it is to Nelson and to the team deserved its own section. Especially when it represented 56% of the pitches he threw this season! Only 2 qualified starters threw their 4 seam more often. So bear with me! His 4 seam averages 95.2 MPH with an elite 18.3 in of IVB and he was in the 89th percentile with a minuscule 5.4% BB rate. Only 10 qualified SP’s had more IVB on their 4-seam in 2024. Of those 10, only 2 pitchers threw it harder Dylan Cease and Taj Bradley. However, due to Nelson’s 81 percentile extension he is releasing the pitch 4-6 inches closer to home plate than Cease or Bradley so it is likely Nelson’s has the highest perceived velocity.
Aside from the metrics, it is also his ability to locate the pitch high in the zone that also leads to its effectiveness.
2025 Outlook
2024 was a breakout season for Nelson and I am very curious to see how he builds on it for 2025. While nothing is guaranteed this far out and with currently having 6 SP’s, he has definitely earned a spot in the rotation in 2025 if it were up to me.
Nelson’s projections are some of the most intriguing in the league for me and will be largely determined by his secondary development. I am bullish on Nelson and believe he is one of the few pitchers on this team that still has a shot of developing into a top of the rotation arm to backfill Gallen simply due to how much developmental room is still left. Its not often that guys who still seem to be searching for secondary pitches have the kinds of seasons Ryne Nelson just had. Nelson’s fastball is so good that even when players knew it was coming at 56% of the time, they still batted just .249 against it and whiffed 20% of the time.
The key for Nelson is what is he going to do to get hitters off his elite fastball? Nelson seemed to be tinkering with multiple versions of the slider/cutter in 2024. The 86-88 mph more vertical moving cutter/slider is the one with the most potential for me. I don’t mind him showing the harder 90-92 cutter from time to time but I think the slower one with more depth pairs better with the riding action on his fastball. It also gives him more of an option against lefties.
For Nelson to reach his TOR potential in 2025, he is going to need a 3rd weapon. Hitters batted over .300 against his changeup in 2024 despite only throwing it just 10% of the time. To me this shows just how bad the pitch is because while hitters are undoubtedly sitting dead red on his fastball, they are still squaring up his changeup despite it being an afterthought. For me, Nelson is a perfect candidate for a splitter or a split changeup. Due to his high arm angle, I’m not sure how feasible it would be for him to throw a sinker, but if he could get some depth and arm side run by the way of a splitter, I think he could be elite. Another option could be more of a 12:6 curveball rather than the slurve he throws now. I am thinking of a Kyle Amendt pitch that almost backs up to righties and away from lefties. I digress, but certainly lots to dream on here with his fastball and control.
Could be one of the most intriguing spring training storylines is what new pitching coach Brian Kaplin has him working on. Nelson’s secondary pitches seemed to be something that Strom couldn’t quite put his finger on so they almost just gave up and went straight gas in the second half. Maybe Kaplin has some tricks up his sleeve?
Looking forward to hearing your favorite Ryne Nelson memories from 2024 or your thoughts on what he could do to give him some more pitch options!