The surprise developer of 2023 built on that experience and became a rotation stalwart in 2024.
Overview
Rating: 7.30
2024 stats: 32 G, 181.2 IP, 11-10, 4.71 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 3.61 FIP, 0.5 bWAR
Date of birth: October 15, 1998 (age 25 season)
2024 salary: Pre-arbitration
2025 status: Pre-arbitration
Review
It is unusual for a team to stay in the playoff hunt until the final out of the season to point to a starting pitcher with an ERA just under 5.00 as the rotation’s most consistently and reliable pitcher. But, such results do indeed happen from time-to-time and are why the games must played on the field and not on paper.
After dominating the opposition with strikeouts in the minors in 2021 and 2022, Brandon Pfaadt opened the 2023 season in Reno, biding his time, waiting for his first taste of MLB experience. Despite the offense-inflating conditions of pitching in Reno, Pfaadt remained consistent, striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. Injuries brought that opportunity in May, where Pfaadt encountered his first taste of professional adversity. A short demotion to Reno and a savvy change of positioning on the rubber brought about by conversations with Brent Strom unlocked something deep within Pfaadt. He returned in late-July and never looked back, starting 10 games and making a three-inning appearance out of the bullpen in the playoff stretch. He then solidified his standing in the rotation by leading the Snakes to four victories in five starts in the postseason.
All of that led to Brandon Pfaadt being penciled in as the team’s #4/5 starter, behind the likes of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez. The late addition of Jordan Montgomery had many speculating that Brandon Pfaadt might drop all the way to the back of the rotation, acting as an innings-eater with low expectations. Early injuries changed that outlook before the season ever started. By the end of April, Pfaadt had already put in 35 innings across six starts. This stretch of games was a mixed bag, the sort of mixed bag that would come to define Pfaadt’s entire season.
On nights Pfaadt had his pitches working, he was all but assured a quality start from his outing. On nights where his location was off, he would get hammered for three, four, even five, or six runs. The biggest culprit to this, Pfaadt’s propensity for giving up the long ball. As a pitcher who reaches 97 mph at the top of the zone, missing his spot can be dangerous. With Pfaadt’s velocity and lack of extreme movement, missing fat over the plate is a recipe for disaster. No more was this on display than on 7 June, when the Padres took Pfaadt deep three times. Despite those struggles, Pfaadt only gave up five earned runs and still recorded 16 outs.
On the flip-side of things, were performances like Pfaadt’s outing against the Brewers during the pivotal month of September. After an outing at home against those same Brewers on 14 September in which he allowed eight runs in only 1.2 innings of work (his shortest outing ever at the MLB level), Pfaadt responded by tossing a gem five nights later in Milwaukee, a game that saw him allow only one run through seven full innings of work. He also set a career high in strikeouts in that game, ending his night with an eye-popping game score of 81.
Brandon Pfaadt ended the season leading the team in innings pitched, starts, strikeouts, home runs allowed, and was second only to Merrill Kelly among starters in terms of WHIP. His end of season 89 ERA+ was likely a bit unlucky, especially given his FIP was a full 1.10 points above his ERA. While his role in the rotation shifted over the course of the season, he gave Arizona everything they could have asked for out of a pitcher just the wrong side of rookie-eligible.
2025 and Beyond
Brandon Pfaadt likely enters the 2025 season penciled in as the team’s #3 starter. The Diamondbacks will no doubt be looking for Pfaadt to once again give them a workload in the realm of 180 IP. If he can do that while also cutting back even slightly on the number of home runs he gives up, he will have take yet another step forward for the third consecutive season, establishing himself as a quality workhorse starter. What’s more is, Pfaadt is not arbitration eligible until 2027. This sets the stage for Pfaadt to be a key member of the team’s next competitive core. Pfaadt’s inexpensive price tag over the next five seasons should help the team find some payroll flexibility to help bring Pfaadt some reinforcements.
The 2025 season will be a big one for Pfaadt. If he can make even small adjustments to the better, he is going to become one of the more in-demand pitchers of the next half-decade. If Pfaadt continues to struggle with gopher balls, then his future may well be as a journeyman innings-eater, something Arizona has not had a reliable representative of for some while now.