Did 2023’s workhorse performance cost the Diamondbacks in 2024?
2024 overview
- Rating: 6.67
- MLB Stats: 13 G, 73.2 IP, 4.03 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.167 WHIP, 1.0 bWAR
- Date of birth: October 14, 1988 (age 35 season)
- Earnings: $8,500,000
- 2025 status: Team option for $7,000,000 exercised for final season of control
Merrill Kelly began 2023 by pitching as the innings-eating workhorse of the Team USA rotation for the World Baseball Classic, including starting the championship game against Team Japan. He followed that up with 177.2 innings of regular season ball, down from his previous season career high, but still good for 27th in all of baseball with regard to innings pitched, behind the likes of Zac Gallen, Logan Webb, Gerrit Cole, and Aaron Nola. In other words, he was still in the company of rotation horses. He followed that up with 24 innings of work in four games in the playoffs before he finally called it a day. All told, his total work in competitive innings in 2023 approached 230 innings. In the year 2000 season, that would have been respectable, but nothing much to write home about. In 2024, that’s an unheard of level of work for pitchers not named Verlander, Scherzer, or Cole.
There were plenty of pundits that openly wondered how Merrill Kelly would bounce back from such a workload in 2024. Kelly’s performance during training in March did little to alleviate those questions. Kelly’s endurance was down and his command and control were both less sharp than usual. Then the regular season rolled around.
In Kelly’s first four games, he averaged over six innings per start. He allowed only six total runs over those four starts, while striking out 21 and walking only six. He looked, for all intents and purposes, like the Kelly of old – sort of. When Kelly left the game on 15 April, some keen-eyed observers were positing that Kelly, despite the results, did not quite look comfortable on the mound. Sure enough, Kelly was scratched from his next start. Then, on 21 April, Kelly missed. Then Snakes were walloped 14-1 by the Cardinals the next night, with Kelly still not starting. After the game, Torey Lovullo had to break the bad news to the fans and media, “We’re not looking in terms of weeks as what we had hoped for… So I think the next step up is a month, more than that.”
As fate would have it, with a teres major strain, Kelly was out for well over three months, coming close to four. Kelly would not return to the mound until midway through August when he tossed five strong innings, providing a spark of hope for the beleaguered rotation. Then the next string of three starts happened. Kelly was beaten and battered to the tune of 16 runs (14 earned) in 16.1 innings of work. What’s more is, the rotation and bullpen were both gassed during this stretch, meaning that Kelly had little choice but to stay on the mound, eating up innings and taking the hard hits squarely in the face.
Then, when September rolled around and the Diamondbacks found themselves in a fight for the playoffs, Kelly found that extra competitive gear that has come to define his career thus far. Despite never looking entirely comfortable on the mound, Kelly rattled off three quality starts, a so-so start, and then closed his season with another stinker, a game in which Kelly looked like the dictionary picture attached to the entry for “gassed”. Kelly simply had nothing left in the tank as Arizona limped to a finish that left them one win from the playoffs.
That loss to the Padres, while not the final loss of the season, marked the end of the season for many fans. Arizona’s “most reliable” big game starter simply had nothing left in the tank and neither did the rest of the team.
Despite all the time missed by Kelly, his season numbers still warranted the entirely of his meager 2024 salary. Furthermore, outside of four games, Kelly was still the Kelly of old. However, Kelly’s age and 2023 workload were on full display.
2025 and Beyond
The decision for Mike Hazen to exercise the team’s $7 million option on Kelly for 2025 was a no-brainer. Even if he only provides the same modest level of production in 2025 that he did in 2024, he will still earn every penny of the deal. With that option exercised, Kelly slots in as the team’s #2 starter for 2025, while also auditioning for a new contract come 2026. The Diamondbacks are hoping that Kelly makes a strong case for a multi-year contract. If he does, the Snakes will be beneficiaries of another solid workhorse season from the 36-year-old former Sun Devil.
In short, Kelly is playing for his MLB career in 2025. Either he’ll pitch well enough to warrant multiple teams offering him a short-term contract for 2026 and 2027 (and possibly 2028), or he’ll pitch his way out of MLB. There really isn’t much middle ground between those results.