Grade: Bee-minus…
Overview
- Rating: 3.18
- 2024 stats: 15 G, 17.2 IP, 8.15 ERA, 8.71 FIP, 1.925 WHIP, -0.4 bWAR
- Date of birth: December 1, 1995 (age 28 season)
- 2024 earnings: League minimum
- 2025 status: On the 40-man roster, pre-arbitration.
2024 review
I’m almost impressed that a pitcher with an ERA and FIP above eight, who appeared fifteen times for the D-backs, still doesn’t appear in the bottom ten of these reviews. I think it’s because, while Hughes was sub-replacement level overall, he didn’t move the needle much in his mediocrity. Not one of those fifteen appearances resulted in a change in Win Probability of even seven percent, in either direction. His worst outings tended to come finishing off contests where the D-backs were trailing, or in the middle of total blowouts. For example, he was one of three pitchers used during a disastrous seventh inning on May 4th, where San Diego sent 11 to the plate on their way to a 13-1 victory. Win Probability: -6.7%.
That said, he was also one of the 14 different starters used this year, albeit in the role as an opener. The first, his Diamondbacks debut, was in unusual circumstance on April 30th. It was the ‘bee delay’ game, after Jordan Montgomery got iced against LA. It went pretty well, striking out Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman around a single to Shohei Ohtani, on his way to a scoreless first. After that, he had a FIP for the season of -0.83. Yes: negative. Brandon should probably have quit while he was ahead. He’d got the call on the basis of some decent numbers in Reno. Over 14.2 IP, he had allowed only three earned runs, good for a 1.84 ERA in the pitching hellscape of the PCL.
Reaching the majors was something of a feat, considering Hughes was picked right at the end of the 16th round in the 2017 draft by Chicago. Coincidentally, the same round as the other Logan Allen, though Allen didn’t sign that year. The most significant player to go later than Hughes that year and sign is probably 26th-round pick, Josh Rojas. Arizona picked some ‘Tarik Skubal’ guy in the 29th, but never secured him: wonder what happened to the pitcher? Anyway, Hughes reached the majors in 2022 and made a good first impression, with a 3.12 ERA across 57.2 innings. But he had a rough sophomore season, struggling with knee inflammation, and after a 7.24 ERA, the Cubs non-tendered him at the end of the year.
He was only signed by the D-backs at the start of February, but as discussed above, made a good impression in Reno and got the call in April. He replaced Tommy Henry, with Kyle Nelson moving to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man roster spot for Hughes. The ugly outing against the Padres discussed earlier got him a ticket to Reno, but he came up again later in May and was an opener against the Dodgers once more. He retired – and stop me if you’ve heard this before – Betts and Freeman, around a single to Ohtani. Hughes came up for a third time in late June, and after that stint was taken off the 40-man roster. It seemed likely he’d hit minor-league free agency this winter as a result.
However, on September 14th, Hughes was added back to the roster, in place of Ryne Nelson with catcher Andrew Knizner designated for assignment off the 40-man roster. He allowed one hit and no runs over 3.1 scoreless innings, and so goes into the winter still part of the Diamondbacks organization. The weird thing is, he pitched a lot better for Reno than in the majors. All told, in Triple-A 48.2 innings, Hughes had a 2.03 ERA in a league where the average was 5.27. He just was not able to convert that success to the majors. Small sample size there, but he did not seem to allow a lot of hard contact, with an average exit velocity of 86.5 mph, below MLB average (88.3).
2025 outlook
The fact the team put him back on the 40-man roster in mid-September, does success the team have future plans for him. What those are is a little vague. He is a left-handed reliever and that will help, though he’s likely quite low on the depth chart for that role. Certainly behind A.J. Puk and likely both R. Nelson and Joe Mantiply as well. It’s by no means certain he’ll even make it to spring training, depending how much of a crunch there is for 40-man spots, both for the Rule 5 draft and as we go through the winter. That he went unclaimed in September suggests demand for his services is low, and the team could try and outright him off the roster once more.