The veteran has proven his value, but could his role be changing?
By the numbers:
- Rating: 7.19
- 2024 Stats: 133 G, 513 AB, .279/.322/.435, 109 OPS+, 2.0 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR
- Date of Birth: October 10, 1993
- 2024 Earnings: $10,000,000 (per Spotrac)
- 2025 Status: Under contract through 2026 with player opt-out available after 2025
Introduction
I think it’s clear to anyone who reads my writing on this site that I am an absolute sucker for baseball cliches. It doesn’t matter if it’s the, “youngster trying to make a good first impression” or the, “down-on-their-luck veteran just looking to redeem their career,” I will eat it up hook, line, and sinker. I can’t say whether it’s my upbringing or something more psychologically complex, but I’m self-aware enough to know that I am committed to the cliche regardless. So when I am faced with a, “cast-off veteran making good on a second chance” cliche, I know that I am completely hooked. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, the Cuban defector that signed an eye-popping seven year/$22 million contract with the Blue Jays back in 2016, has not had the smoothest of careers to this point. I can only imagine the kind of emotional toll it might take to defect from your country, and it helps to highlight how the current system for international signees is badly in need of reform. Regardless, after his signing in the 2016 offseason, Gurriel steadily made his way through the Toronto minor leagues before debuting with the big league club in 2018 and showing exactly the promise that prompted the original signing.
In just 65 games across multiple stints in the Show, he posted a .281/.309/.446 slash line, but a bad habit of striking out (59) – an impatient approach at the plate that still haunts him today. After dealing with a hamstring injury however, he was shut down late in the season and eventually made his transition to the outfield during the 2019 season from his original middle infielder positioning. He spent the next several seasons continuing to do much of the same with impressive power, high strikeouts, and above-average defense while roaming the grass. However, facing his final year on his original contract, the Blue Jays opted to include Gurriel in the Daulton Varsho trade whose main target was Gabriel Moreno. For the record, the D-Backs are comfortably “winning” that trade to this point given the combined bWAR of nearly 12 by those two players. Unsurprisingly given that tidbit, Gurriel flourished in his first year in the desert as he helped lead the D-Backs to the World Series while contributing significantly to the team’s personality and fun demeanor that kept them loose throughout. He also benefited from a well-timed improvement in his offensive numbers as he turned a corner with the lumber in the final two months of the 2023 season that helped secure the three year/$42 million contract he signed almost exactly a year ago.
2024 Season
There are plenty of examples of players who manage to have excellent walk year seasons and quickly wilt after signing a new contract. As paradoxical as it is, I have to imagine there is a psychological element to the situation that removes a certain level of pressure to prove your worth. Thankfully, Gurriel can be safely kept off that list for now as he recreated a very similar season in 2024 to his audition last season. He provided a much-needed fun element to the team while also giving a still-young roster some veteran leadership that can prove invaluable in the marathon that a baseball regular season can be. Our 2023 review (via DBE) was pretty complimentary, especially in the incremental improvements the veteran made in his approach at the plate that increased his contact numbers while decreasing his strikeout rate. He also managed a number of impressive defensive gems both with his glove and his arm that certainly wowed me. That was once again Gurriel’s role this season as he maintained an above-average Whiff% and K%, showed off some impressive defensive range, and demonstrated the kind of clutch hitting that he has posted throughout his career. After a 2023 season in which he posted excellent clutch hitting stats, he was actually even better this year – particularly with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. In 2023, he had a .250/.311/.529 slash line in such situations, while in 2024 he managed to bump those numbers up to .298/.375/.456 respectively.
2025 Outlook
I am hopeful to see much of the same from Gurriel next year, but I think it’s also possible for him to start seeing his playing time reduced somewhat given the logjam the team currently has on the outfield grass. As it stands as of this writing, the team has five different outfielders vying for time: Gurriel, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Corbin Carroll, and Jorge Barrosa. It’s entirely possible that Thomas and Barrosa are stashed in Reno awaiting either injury or regression from one of the other three or one could be used as part of a trade package for another roster need like bullpen pitching or a first basemen. Sadly, as Gurriel continues to age, his arm value – a below-average skill for him already – may decline enough that he may be forced into additional time at DH rather than in the field. Even still, he’s such a powerfully positive individual that he would likely take the demotion with the kind of calm, jovial aplomb that has come to define his clubhouse and dugout presence.