His batting power was impressive.
Overview
Rating: 6.65
2024 stats: 60 G, 9 HRs in 158 PAs, .270/ .348/ .547 (145 OPS+), +0.6 bWAR (offense +1.0 bWAR, defense negative 0.7 bWAR)
Date of birth: February 6, 1996 (28 years old)
2024 earnings: Pre-Arb. His adjusted salary was $508,968 per Spotrac.
2025 status: Arb-1, salary estimated at $1.5 Million by MLBTR. Possible DH or first baseman on active roster.
Vote breakdown:
AZ Snake Pit.
Introduction.
He was drafted first. In 2017, he was drafted in the first round, number 7 overall. With Mike Hazen as the GM, Pavin Smith was the first player drafted by the Diamondbacks.
In 2021, the AZ Snake Pit voted him rookie of the year. So far, that season is his only season as an everyday player. Pavin Smith stepped up when other players were injured. His 98 OPS+ and his negative 1 overall OAA were good for a rookie.
What is Pavin Smith’s mindset regarding hitting? In 2021, he was about looking at the ball and hitting it hard. Last season, his 44.0% hard hits was a career high.
“All I care about right now is my hard-hit percentage. If you hit the ball hard enough, you’re going to find holes eventually. It’s the law of averages.” — Pavin Smith, 2021
“It’s hard to think about if I want to swing and how I want to swing at the same time. I just went to more look at the ball and try to put the barrel on it.” — Pavin Smith, 2021
2024 Review.
What if one stat could tell the story of his season? Home runs per fly ball (HR/FG) increased from 12.7% to a career high 22.0%.
- His career focus on hitting the ball hard finally achieved a breakthrough.
- Instead of 60 games, if Pavin Smith had played 160 games, he could have hit 24 home runs, nearly matching Christian Walker’s 26 home runs. Backing that prediction up, his barrels per PA and barrels per batted-ball-event were better than Christian Walker (10.1% vs 8.5% and 14.7% vs 13.3%).
- In the Majors, Pavin Smith became one of only 15 players who hit 3 home runs in one game this season. Two others on the list were Diamondback Eugenio Suarez and Dodger Shohei Ohtani.
- Truly, this season his power batting was impressive.
Let’s take a broader look at his season. More than just a home run hitter, Pavin Smith made a large contribution in scoring runs.
“Last season, Pavin Smith’s run expectancy [increase] per plate appearance was more than any other Diamondback except Adrian Del Castillo (whose 87 PAs were less than Smith).” — Makakilo
“His OPS is in the .950 range, he’s helped us win games, he’s killing the baseball. I’m not gonna put everything down and say, ‘Okay, you’re on the bench.’” — Torey Lovullo September 2024
He did not make the opening day roster. Ignoring 2 games in July, he played two 1.5 month stretches. The first stretch he mostly played right field, with some first base and pinch hitting. The second stretch he mostly played left field with some first base and pinch hitting.
Last season he showed he could play good defense at first base.
“Last season, Pavin Smith showed improved defense at first base (compared to the previous season). Baseball Savant provided the following:
against right-handed batters, improved from zero OAA to one OAA.
against left-handed batters, improved from negative four OAA to negative one OAA.” —Makakilo
His defense in the outfield was worse than first base.
“Although he was not charged with an error, I was stunned by his attempts to field the baseball. A second reason he should not play the outfield is that his arm allowed batters and runners to take extra bases. In 2024, two statistics tell the story: 100 percent safe per attempt, 42% safe per opportunity. Statistics from Baseball Savant.” — Makakilo
2025 Outlook.
Next Season Pavin Smith could be an everyday player. In the last couple years, some writers have been skeptical that he would ever become an everyday player on the Diamondbacks. Their views were based on his batting and his lack of a defensive position.
Two developments changed his potential for the better.
- Last season, Pavin Smith had a career year at the plate. Although some may suggest a regression, my view is that he achieved a breakthrough and his batting will continue at his higher level.
- The Diamondbacks will likely lose three free agents: Christian Walker (first base), Josh Bell (first base), and Joc Pederson (DH). With the breakout in his batting, and with two likely open positions, Pavin Smith has high potential to be an everyday player.