Sweet sinker.
Overview
- Rating: 6.53
- 2024 stats: 75 G, 59.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 2.94 SO/BB, 107 ERA+
- Date of birth: March 1, 1991 (33 years old)
- 2024 earnings: $925,000 (via Spotrac)
- 2025 status: 2nd year Arb. eligible, projected for $1,580,000 (via Spotrac). 2 minor league options remaining.
Introduction
Of the 36 pitchers that took the mount for the Snakes in 2021, only Joe Mantiply, Kevin Ginkel, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly remain, which shows how crazy fast pitchers can get burned by a team. For Joe Mantiply, 2024 was his 5th season as a Diamondback. It shows how much the Diamondbacks have gone to appreciate his work and with the team, so have we gone to appreciate him over the years.
It was in 2020, when Mantiply was designated for assignment but stayed with the team and the AZSnakePit was harsher for humans than the Sahara desert, using descriptions as “multiplying baserunners” or “clown act” when referring to Joe Mantiply. Those years are long past, and above all we remember his great 2022, when he got an All Star nod, though helped by playing on a terrible Diamondbacks team. However, question marks about maybe moving into higher leverage work were right, as his 2023 season was a bit disappointing. Two injuries played their part in that, but the demotion to Reno was painful and middle relief probably seemed more suitable for Mantiply going forward.
2024 review
Mantiply entered the 2024 season as one of several lefties capable of pitching out of the bullpen, with the competition coming from Kyle Nelson and Andrew Saalfrank. Despite making a good impression at the end of the season in 2023, Saalfrank was assigned to Reno at the beginning of the season and so Joe Mantiply and Kyle Nelson started the season as the Opening Day left-handed relievers.
Mantiply had an unlucky debut of the 2024 season on March 29, giving up 2 runs against the Rockies, though the team would win 7-3 anyhow. After that, Mantiply would pitch steadily during that first month of April, except for another stinker against the Cubs on April 17. It was pretty much the tale of his season, where he would have multiple outings without giving up a run and then all of a sudden would see 2 or 3 runners cross home plate. Most of the times though, those sorrowful outings would go unpunished: over the season Mantiply has been credited with just 2 losses and 1 blown save: if there would be a trophy for the player who has his worst outings at the most opportune moments, I am sure Mantiply would be one of the favourites to bring it home.
Joe Mantiply gave me some head scratches when looking at the numbers. He obviously does not have the pinpoint command he had in 2022 and walks batters more often. Nor does he have the velocity and his sinker is actually one of the slowest in MLB with a 89.0 mph average. His hard hit rate went up as well.
Despite all that, most impressive about Mantiply’s season was nonetheless his ability to keep the ball in the park. The lefty allowed just one homerun during the entire season. Batters indeed had troubles in squaring up against his sinker, which was a rather weak pitch with negative value in 2023 but in 2024 induced tons of grounders and has become a staggering 11 runs saved on FanGraphs. They also chased a lot more pitches out of the zone and, as a matter of fact, Mantiply is top of the MLB in that area. A bit more drop and a bit more break (because of the loss of velocity?) apparently did the trick here and the AZSnakePit rewarded that with a 6.5, which is actually really close to his 2022 rating of 6.7.
2025 outlook
It is good to see that Mantiply was able to find moderate success again in 2024 after a somewhat disappointing 2023. The reliever pitched the majority of his innings in low-leverage situations, which seems where he thrives best. He obviously had better numbers against left-handed batters, but because he was able to keep the ball that well in the park, his numbers against right-handed batting (.691 OPS) were not that bad either.
After a nice 2024 season and at a marginal arbitration cost, Joe Mantiply seems like a slam dunk entry for the Opening Day bullpen in 2025.
I am a bit worried about the velocity loss though. Although there are no direct red flags in Mantiply’s 2024, you could wonder if hitters are going to catch up with the low velocity sinker with new scouting reports. Since Mantiply isn’t a swing and strike profile, he needs hitters to make contact. Enough contact was made in 2024, but batters couldn’t knock it away in the gaps. Let’s hope it stays like that in 2025.