He’ll be an Astro next year
Even though Christian Walker turned down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, there was still hope expressed in some quarters that a longer-term contract to remain in Arizona could be negotiated. That now appears to have been extinguished, with the reports today that Walker has signed a three-year, $60 million contract with the Houston Astros. That deal is just about in line with expectations: indeed, it’s exactly what MLB Trade Rumors projected (although in contrast to some bigger deals, which significantly went past what was anticipated). Given he turned down $21.5 million from Arizona, greater than the AAV for which he signed, it appears that the price was less an issue than contract length.
The concern from the Diamondbacks’ end was likely due to Walker’s advanced age. While this is his first time becoming a free-agent, he will turn 34 the day after Opening Day next year. This is because he was severely blocked in the early stages of his career. Walker had less than a hundred PA in total, through the end of his age 27 season, so had accumulated almost no service time to that point, After accumulating five bWAR in 2022, his overall output declined to 3.8 and 2.6 bWAR for 2023 + 2024. Any further decline over the term of the contract could push the contract into a bad deal. [fWAR is a little kinder to Christian, giving him three wins each of the last two seasons]
There’s no denying Walker has been excellent value during his time in Arizona. 2022 was the first year he was paid more than league minimum, and he earned a total of $20 million – the same as the AAV of his new deal – over the 2022-24 seasons combined. He posted a total of 11.4 bWAR/10.8 fWAR, which is fabulous value, even without including any production over his pre-arbitration years (around four wins by either metric). It’s incredible to remember we got him for free, Walker being selected off waivers by the Diamondbacks from the Reds in March of 2017. Oh, and that was the third time Christian had been placed on waivers in little more than a month, being previously dropped by Baltimore and Atlanta.
Initially, the situation in Arizona was no different, because the D-backs had an All-Star incumbent at the position, some “Goldschmidt” guy. As a result, Walker was relegated to little more than a cup of coffee, getting 68 plate appearances between 2017 and 2018. But with the departure of Paul Goldschmidt in a trade to St Louis, the team needed a replacement. It’s ironic that there was much the same complaint with fandom then, regarding the team not being willing to open up their wallets and sign an extension for a Gold Glove winning 1B in his thirties. Walker had a good first season, but after the curtailed 2020 campaign, struggled the following year, with two IL stints and only ten home-runs.
Over the three seasons since, however, he has been one of the best first basemen in the majors. That 11.4 bWAR puts him top five at the position, with little to separate the production of him and Goldschmidt, who won an MVP and earned almost four times as much over that time. While his OPS+ of 124 was certainly respectable, it was Walker’s prowess with the glove which really shone, and he deservedly won three consecutive Gold Gloves. It was a pleasure to watch, as he made the difficult plays look easy, and turned some impossible plays into outs. Like Goldschmidt, Walker was rarely demonstrative, and simply got on with his job, showing up every day and getting it done. He’ll be missed.
Personally, I think I’ll probably miss his near-complete domination of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. He played 42 games there, and hit an astonishing .341 in those, with 19 home-runs and a 1.184 OPS. Since Dodger Stadium opened in 1962, no player with 100 or more PA there has posted a higher OPS than Walker. Only Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton come within even a hundred point of Christian’s figure. So I guess we should probably be glad he didn’t sign with Los Angeles! With him going to the American League, we won’t have to worry about seeing him too often, but in case you’re curious: July 21-23 at Chase. Above, find ten of Walker’s bombs against the Dodgers in their own home.
How the D-backs will replace him is yet to be seen. It appears Pavin Smith is going to be part of the equation, GM Mike Hazen repeatedly stating his belief that “Pavin can hit.” The question of whether Pavin can field, however, is more of an issue, and we could end up seeing Smith as part of the answer at the DH spot. For the team needs help there too, both sides of the very successful platoon from 2024 being free-agents, in Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. With Walker now off the board, the market may begin to move for other players, including Goldschmidt, as well as Pete Alonso (almost certainly too expensive for Arizona), and another former D-back, Josh Bell.
Sorting all that out is why Hazen gets paid the big bucks, and it’s a process into which we have no real input. Whoever it is, will have some large shoes to fill, with Walker fourth on the franchise list for home-runs, and in the top ten for total bases, RBI, walks and bWAR. All the best in Houston, Mr. Walker. Except from July 20-23, naturally.