A Perspective of Paul Sewald | Phoenix Sports Today

Last Season Ended With Disappointment.

It was disappointment for the Diamondbacks, who ended a tiebreaker short of the playoffs.

It was disappointment for Paul Sewald, who performed poorly in the second half.

“After 1 July, [Paul Sewald’s] performance fell. Nine times he entered a game with the Diamondbacks ahead, no baserunners, and with leverage greater than 1. Three times he allowed zero runs and earned three saves. In the other six games he allowed a total of 10 runs, while leaving 2 runners on base.” — Makakilo

. @Dbacks manager Torey Lovullo says he will give Paul Sewald a break from the closer’s role. Who closes out game will depend on matchups.

— Steve Gilbert (@SteveGilbertMLB) August 2, 2024

This AZ Snake Pit article screened out Paul Sewald from possible closers in 2025 because his season ERA was 4.31. The Diamondbacks granted him free agency. It was possible but unlikely that he would return.

A few reasons kept hope alive that he could bounce back.

Less than half age-34 pitchers improved their ERA at age-35. Baseball Reference showed four age-34 (2023) relief pitchers who pitched in at least 10 games in each of 2023 and 2024. In the second season, one of the four had an improved ERA.

Pressly, 3.58 to 3.49 ERA.
Neris, 1.71 to 4.10 ERA.
Moore, 2.77 to 5.03 ERA.
Cisnero, 5.31 to 6.89 ERA.

Sewald accounted for surprisingly few of the Diamondbacks blown saves.

[In 2024], Paul Sewald accounted for only 4 of the Diamondbacks’ 26 blown saves. Those 26 blown saves were the 8th most in the Majors. — Makakilo

Sewald was perceived as an essential part of the best version of the Diamondbacks bullpen.

“I thought when [Paul Sewald] was closing, we had the best version of who we were, frankly.” — Mike Hazen, November 2024

Last season, two weaknesses were less significant.

This AZ Snake Pit player review made many points, including the following:

“During this stretch Sewald’s performance was helped by how Torey Lovullo employed his services, working hard to avoid putting Sewald on the mound in consecutive days.” — James Attwood

Bullpen management changed in June. In June through September, seven times he pitched on consecutive days. In those seven games, he allowed a total of zero earned runs, walked a total of zero batters, and struck out 9 batters.

“As command and control are not outstanding traits for Sewald, his results became more and more erratic.” — James Attwood

My view is that in general, his control was as good as last season. Two reasons follow:

Looking at the entire season, his zone percentage increased from 55.3% in 2023 to 59.0% in 2024.
Batters swung more often at his pitches outside the strike zone (increased from 26.3% to 27.1%).

The Guardian signed Paul Sewald.

His contract surprised me because it pays him more than I anticipated. He will earn $7 million in 2025, plus $500,000 in incentives, plus $1 signing bonus, plus $1 million buyout if his $10 million mutual option is not exercised. That was high pay when compared to last season’s 0.2 bWAR.

A further surprise was that, to make room on the 40-man roster, the Guardian DFA’d relief pitcher Pedro Avila, who is prearb. He is earning near league minimum. On 30 January, he became a free agent. The two relievers are compared in the following table:

These metrics favor Avilo with one exception: Got-The-Job-Done (GTJD). The questions to ask are whether GTJD is more important than the other measures, is Sewald’s performance sustainable, and will Sewald be worth the extra salary cost?

How could Sewald improve?

Before proceding, it is important to know Paul Sewald’s mindset, as reflected in the following quote:

“I want to be one of those guys that gets considered as one of the best closers in baseball. And for me to do that I have to be more consistent. I’m not coming up with a new pitch. I’m not coming up with anything new. I just need to do what I do really well. I just need to do it more often and more consistently. …” — Paul Sewald, December, 2023

Better first pitch in each PA.

Last season, his control of the strike zone in his first pitches was less than other Diamondbacks pitchers, as shown in the following table (first presented in this AZ Snake Pit article by Makakilo).

Better fastballs against left-handed batters (LHBs).

In the second half of the season, his results against all batters worsened (OPS went from .590 to .856 and wOBA went from .256 to .365). For details see the following table.

Most of the negative impact was from fastballs against LHBs (OPS went from .622 to 1.090 and wOBA went from .276 to .460). One statistic that stands out is that hard hit % against fastballs pitched to LHBs went from 33.3% to 66.7%. Perhaps as an attempt to get better overall results, in the second half he pitched less fastballs against left-handed batters (in the first half of the season 77.3% of his pitches to LHBs were fastballs, compared to 65.7% in the second half). For details, see the following table.

My view is that because of Sewald did not control the strike zone on his first pitch of each PA, some left-handed batters successfully waited on fastballs and hit them very hard.

Summary.

In the second half of last season, Paul Sewald had disappointing results. Eventually, he was removed from the closer role.

There were reasons to hope he could bounce back next season despite his age. He had very few of the Diamondbacks’ blown saves. He was perceived as an essential part of the best version of the Diamondbacks bullpen.

The Guardians signed Sewald. His salary was high compared to last season’s 0.2 bWAR. Also, adding Sewald required a DFA of Pedro Avilo, who had better metrics except for Got-The-Job-Done.

Sewald could improve, but it’s unlikely he will do anything new. Instead he will be more consistent. Two possible improvements:

Better control of the strike zone on the first pitch of each PA.
More consistently excellent fastballs against left-handed batters.