Where did our team members go in the draft?
This train of thought was started when I was thinking about what role Tim Tawa might play on the 2025 Diamondbacks. He was added to the 40-man roster this winter, which indicates the team sees value in him. The details of that, however, will have to wait for another day. What stood out about Tawa was that he was not picked until the 11th round of the 2021 MLB draft: three hundred and seventeen players were picked before Tim. Of course, gems can be found outside the first round, perhaps more so in baseball than any other sport. Indeed, our best home-grown pitcher and hitter, Brandon Webb and Paul Goldschmidt, were both selected in the eighth round of the draft.
But it feels like those kind of gems are rarer these days, with advance scouting having become more of a science. Diamond(back)s in the rough might be less likely to drop through the cracks. And, of course, the draft is simply far shorter now. There were only 20 rounds, so someone like All-Star Junior Spivey, a 36th-round pick by Arizona in 1996 (yes, we picked before we played a game), would end up going undrafted. But I thought it might be interesting to see where the 21 position players and 30 pitchers used by the D-backs this year, went in the draft, to give us an idea of how common or rare it is for an 11th-round pick to reach the majors [Five of those picked alongside Tawa have already played there]
Position players
Of the 21 players here, one-third were not drafted, coming from outside the area covered by the draft. Of the remaining fourteen, six were picked in the first round. You probably would get Corbin Carroll, and maybe Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith (the latter, going seventh overall, was the highest drafted selection among our position players this year). But did you know that Randal (consciously avoids adding the extra L!) Grichuk was a first-round pick in 2009? Kevin Newman went even earlier, being a top twenty choice, going at #19 in 2015. But the biggest first-round shock is probably Jace Peterson. Albeit barely, for there were an oce-lot of supplementary picks in 2011. Sixty players went, including Peterson at #58.
Admittedly, we are likely biased because Mr. Peterson ranks among the all-time worst Diamondbacks (-1.4 bWAR in only 55 games). Objectively, Jace has had an 11-year career in the majors, and that’s a genuine feat. His 2.6 career bWAR is more than most (35 of 60) first-rounders that June have managed. A quarter never made it to the big leagues at all: again, this reflects the greater uncertainty in the baseball draft. On the other hand, it’s a lot less than another member of the 2024 D-backs, Josh Bell, who was picked three slots after Peterson (Nick Ahmed was, like Bell, another second-round choice that season who ended up with a better career than Peterson).
As well as Bell, there are two other second-rounders: Alek Thomas and Adrian Del Castillo. So all told, nine of fourteen went in the opening couple of rounds. After that, things become a lot more sporadic. But surprisingly, if Tim makes the team out of the 11th round, there will be precedent, with not one but two players this year coming from there. You might not be surprised to find that Blaze Alexander was one, although his 339th position does not make him the biggest over-achiever in the Class of 2024 among our position players. That honor goes to the other man who rose above: Joc Pederson, taken #352 in the 2010 draft. Fellow All-Star Adam Duvall went four picks earlier.
Pitchers
The men on the mounds are a little bit more draft-heavy. While that applied to two-third of hitters, almost three-quarters of all the players (22 of 30) came into professional baseball from the draft. However, what really stands out is the far greater spread of draft positions. Of those twenty-two, just four came from the opening round, and a couple more from the second, giving us 27% from the first couple of rounds, less than half the 64% figure for position players there. This is a small sample size – one team for one year, comprising only 36 drafted players in total – but it does appear to confirm the old saw, that there ain’t no such thing as a pitching prospect.
You probably wouldn’t guess the highest drafted player overall on the 2024 D-backs. That honor goes to A.J. Puk, selected sixth in the 2016 draft. What’s startling is that five players chosen ahead of him all flopped hard, totaling only 1.1 bWAR between them. Mickey Moniak was the #1, and if you just went “Who?”, you are not alone. More than eight years later, you need to go all the way down to #32 to find anyone currently in double-digits for bWAR, with Will Smith. The other three first-rounders, were all selected by the Diamondbacks, though none have exactly set the mound on fire so far: Bryce Jarvis (#18 in 2020), Blake Walston (#26 in 2019), and recent departee Slade Cecconi (#33 in 2020).
There are a lot of lower picks to be found: nine of the twenty-two went in the 10th round or later. Sometimes MUCH later. Indeed, there are no less than four pitchers on the 2024 D-backs who would not have been selected under the current twenty round format. In many ways, the core of our bullpen fall into this category, with Kevin Ginkel a 22nd-rounder, Ryan Thompson going in the next round, and Joe Mantiply being selected all the way down in the 27th round – all positions which no longer exist. However, the champion for the team is the briefly-tenured (like: one appearance) Joe Jacques, who was drafted by Pittsburgh in the 33rd round of 2018. That was with the nine hundred and eighty-fourth pick overall!
Here are the full charts for both groups. They are in descending order of plate appearances and innings pitched respectively.
Again, small sample size needs to be stressed. But all told, the average draft round of the 2024 Arizona roster, where they had one, was 4.14 for position players and 9.95 for pitchers. The overall positions were 127th and 303rd respectively, which really brings home how much more likely you are to find major-league quality pitching – albeit for a loose definition of quality! – outside the early rounds.