A sudden rush of settlements for our arb-eligible players today
The Arizona Diamondbacks went into the off-season with eight players eligible for arbitration, and added a ninth in trading for Josh Naylor with Cleveland. Today was the final day for negotiations between the team and those players, before having to exchange arbitration figures tomorrow, and as is customary, that meant a late rush of agreements. Let’s take a look at why this was necessary, what happened, and what’s to come?
What is this about?
Players typically need six years of service time before they can become free agents. If they have less than three years, teams can pay them at or close to the minor-league minimum, which for this year will be $760,000. But for players with (more less) between three and six years service time, they have more leverage, and can negotiate a higher salary with the team. If they agree on a figure, brilliant. But if not, then the sides go to arbitration. The player and team each submit a suggested one-year contract to an arbitrator, and both get to make their case at a hearing. The arbitrator will then pick one or other contract as the fairest: there’s no splitting the difference. That contract then is effective for the next year.
Why is arbitration a bad thing?
Mostly because it has the potential to damage the player/team relationship. Basically, the hearing consists of the team explaining why a player is not worth as much as he thinks. Having your employer bad-mouth you, while you sit and watch, will never feel good, and if the team is looking to sign the player to a contract extension before free agency, the process likely won’t help. That said, many players realize it’s just business. When Josh Rojas lost his arbitration case before the 2023 season, it didn’t seem to lead to any hard feeling. Said Rojas, “I didn’t walk out of there thinking that they said anything personally… I didn’t feel like they crossed the line with anything that they said, that’s for sure.”
So what happened today?
Of the D-backs’ nine players, eight agreed to deals before having to go to the stage of swapping numbers: Pavin Smith did so yesterday, and today saw a slew of others follow suit. Below is a list in alphabetical order of the players, their service time (in years and days), and the agreed contract for 2025. You’ll note that generally, the more service time a player has, the bigger the salary. Though performance and health in the previous season also have to be taken into account.
- Zac Gallen (5.100): $13.5M
- Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $2.425M
- Joe Mantiply (4.029) $1.7M
- Josh Naylor (5.127): $10.9M
- Kyle Nelson (3.076): $825K
- Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $2.55M
- A.J. Puk (4.124): $2.95M
- Pavin Smith (3.015): $1.5M
Most of these are relatively close to the figures projected by MLB Trade Rumors. The two biggest differences are at the upper end, where Gallen and Naylor came in below estimates, by $600K and $1.1 million respectively. All told, the total so far is $750K under expectation, which is nice. Maybe the team can put that into the kitty for some new air-conditioning. Large though the above figures may seem, they pale beside the likely payout for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is probably going to get close to thirty million dollars in his final year before free-agency.
And the other one?
All of the day’s activities means there is just one member of the Diamondbacks who has not settled at the time of writing. They, along with their service time and MLBTR projected salary, are as follows:
- Ryan Thompson (4.095): $2.9M
The next stage is for the teams to swap offers of specific value. Note that this does not mean they will end up locking horns at a hearing. Negotiations can continue, right up to the door of the hearing, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ryan came to an agreement with the Diamondbacks. Failing that, the hearing will proceed as explained above, at some point between January 27 and February 14 in St. Petersburg, Florida.