Two weeks or so left. What can we tell? For some loose definition of “tell”…
Standard disclaimer. It has been a staple of articles at this point for over 20 years. Spring training stats are almost meaningless. Pitchers can try out new pitches, which may or may not be discarded. They can go into a game intending to throw only off-speed pitches, and this can play into the end results. There’s also a wide range of opponent strengths. You could be facing an established major-leaguer, or some guy brought over for the day from the minor-league camp. Arizona is more hitter-friendly than Florida. There’s some evidence peripheral stats like BB and K rate “stabilize much quicker in spring training… and thus were more predictive of what does happen in the regular season.” But not much.
Still, over-reacting to ridiculously small sample sizes, is very much part of what spring training is about. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do here, since we’re now well into the second half of preseason games. Through today’s contest against the Athletics, the D-backs had played twenty-one times, with fourteen still to go before Opening Day, when the results really matter. Looking purely at the statistics, who has impressed, and who has given cause for concern?
MVP! MVP!
Corbin Carroll: .381/.435/.810 = 1.245 OPS. Last season felt like a baseball remake of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, although the transformation went the other way. Carroll was terrible in the first half, but rebounded strongly, and has carried that forward this spring. An adjustment to his swing seems to have paid dividends and his three HR leads the team. There was a bit of concern after Corbin had to miss games due to back tightness, but he seems to have returned to the line-up without problems.
Eugenio Suarez: .355/.447/.677 = 1.124 OPS. With 13 RBI already, Suarez has been highly productive. You could repeat much of what was said about Carroll, given Suarez also had a year of two halves in 2024. It’s also a great improvement on the .211/.286/.395 line Eugenio posted in spring last year, just a .680 OPS there. While spring numbers are not predictive, that certainly foreshadowed Suarez’s struggles in the regular season, with a .667 OPS through the end of April 2024. Hopefully the better number here will carry on too.
ildemaro Vargas: .310/.394/.621 = 1.015 OPS. Among the non-roster invitees, old friend Vargas has certainly been turning heads. In that group, not many have received as much playing time as Ildemaro, as he fights for a utility role on the D-backs bench. That OPS has clearly been better than his likely two biggest rivals for that spot, Grae Kessinger (.784) and Garrett Hampson (.706). But if ever there was a spot where intangibles will factor into the eventual decision, this would probably be it.
Corbin Burnes: 9.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K = 0.96 ERA. Hard to say anything other than that Burnes has lived up to what was expected from him, when he signed the largest contract in team history. There’s still no decision on whether he or Zac Gallen will get the nod from Torey Lovullo to get the start on Opening Day. But if spring results decide it, then Burnes would be the man. Here’s to the next six years being anything close to the standard Corbin has shown in his first four appearances for the D-backs.
Drey Jameson: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K = 2.25 ERA. There have been flashier spring lines – Conor Grammes seven K’s over 3.1 scoreless – but merely seeing Jameson back on the mound is enough to get him on here. His last major-league pitch was on July 6, 2023, Tommy John surgery then derailed his career. 20 months later, he’s back – and reached 101.3 mph on Monday. He may or may not make the Opening Day roster – Mike Hazen urged caution, but said “I am fairly confident he is going to make an impact on this year’s team.”
We’re doomed!
Well, one of the names in this category was going to be Pavin Smith. But he homered and walked today, boosting his OPS by 174 points, and he’s now above Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Ketel Marte. Which should warn you about the sample sizes here!
Adrian Del Castillo: .125/.125/.167 = .292 OPS. The general consensus was that, if Del Castillo was going to break camp with the team, it would be his lumber which would make him our backup catcher. That hasn’t shown up this spring, especially disappointing after his strong 2024 at the plate. Batting 3-for-24 is bad enough, but when you add on the zero walks and twelve strikeouts, you begin to make Jose Herrera (who is actually hitting .353 to date) look like the second coming of Mike Piazza.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: .190/.217/.190 = .407 OPS. Of this trio of hitters, Gurriel is probably the one about whom there should be least concern, considering he had a longer and better record of major-league success than either of the other two. He has been impacted by a sore hamstring, which has made Lourdes miss time, and that might be a factor, as he also looks for his first extra-base hit of 2025. Providing he’s healthy, I’m not really worried about Gurriel’s production in 2025.
Jordan Montgomery: 0.1 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K = 135.00 ERA. Ah, the true joy of small spring sample sizes. If anyone needed a strong spring to calm fan angst, it was Jordan, but he got a late start again this preseason, due to a finger issue. Despite losing a good chunk of weight this winter, his first appearance was a real stinker. He said afterward, “I just gotta take a chill pill and relax,” You and us both, Jordan. Though only one of us is getting paid $22.5 million this year.
Scott McGough: 4.2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 6 K = 11.57 ERA. Of the pitchers with spring ERAs in double-digits, most are lesser-known names, mostly minor-leaguers. McGough’s name stands out in that regard, his comeback tour here in Arizona having got off to a rough start. Most fans probably though they’d seen the last of him in the bigs for us, when he became a free agent in November, after a 5.59 ERA across 83 games for the D-backs. So far, he hasn’t done much to challenge that belief.
Blake Walston: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 4 K = 9.95 ERA. Arizona’s first-round pick in 2019. Walston was only 22 when he made his debut last year. He went on to make two starts and five relief appearances, and had a shot at competing for a long relief role this spring. But you won’t get it when you walk more batters than you strike out. Another year of seasoning in the minors beckons, with hopefully an uptick in fastball velocity. And that’s okay, given his young age: time is on his side.