The Astros’ recent hot streak has positioned Houston as a clear buyer heading into the July 30 trade deadline. At 46-44 (including 13-4 over their past 17 games), they’re two games back of the division-leading Mariners and 3.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. Among their deadline targets, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, are at least one starting pitcher and an extra bat — ideally a first baseman. Heyman calls D-backs first baseman Christian Walker the Astros’ preferred target, though it’s not yet clear whether Arizona will sell any veterans heading into the deadline.
The 33-year-old Walker would be one of the most impactful bats on the market — if the Diamondbacks ultimately end up selling. That’s far from certain right now. Arizona is all but buried in the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a commanding 7.5-game lead over the second-place Padres and a 10-game lead over the D-backs themselves. The Snakes, however, are only two and a half games behind the Padres for the final National League Wild Card spot. They’re three and a half games back of the Cardinals, who hold the second Wild Card spot at the moment.
If the Diamondbacks were to fall out of the race, it stands to reason that Walker would at least be available. The slugging, slick-fielding first baseman is a clear qualifying offer candidate, so Arizona wouldn’t necessarily be obligated to move him, as Walker could net them a draft pick if he turns down a QO and signs elsewhere. But Walker is hitting .265/.337/.507 with 22 homers this season and carries a stout .253/.332/.491 slash with 91 homers in 1721 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2022. He’s won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons as well. That type of plus offense and defense would make him one of the most in-demand players on the summer trade market.
That’s especially true for an Astros club that has gotten virtually nothing out of its first basemen this season. Houston already released Jose Abreu midway through a three-year, $58.5MM contract — a move that underscores the team’s urgency to turn things around. Jon Singleton has batted just .243/.339/.366 in 233 plate appearances while playing poor defense. Houston’s need for an alternative option is clear, and the team is clearly reluctant to give outfield prospect Joey Loperfido any time at first base (at least in the majors).
As for the team’s rotation, that’s been an area of need for much of the season — though help could be on the horizon. The ’Stros lost both Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy to UCL surgery earlier this summer. JP France had shoulder surgery recently. They’ve seen both Justin Verlander (twice, including currently) and Framber Valdez require trips to the injured list. The only healthy starters on Houston’s roster at the moment are Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Shawn Dubin made a start against the Twins recently but was hit hard.
The Astros are hoping to have Verlander back sooner than later, however, and righty Luis Garcia is on a rehab assignment right now as he finishes up his rehab from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Lance McCullers Jr. could join the staff in the season’s second half as well. Still, Houston starters rank 21st in MLB with a 4.37 ERA, and that includes some solid work out of Javier before his UCL injury.
Even if the Astros are planning to get some combination of Verlander, Garcia and McCullers back for the stretch run, it’s possible injuries and workload concerns further impact the situation. Blanco didn’t pitch in 2020, pitched just 45 innings in 2021, 51 innings in 2022 and 125 1/3 frames last year. He’s already at 96 innings pitched. Arrighetti is within 40 innings of the 124 2/3 frames he tossed a year ago. McCullers hasn’t pitched since 2022. Garcia tossed only 27 innings last year before surgery.
There’s good sense to Houston adding some depth and stability, even if it’s not necessarily a top-tier arm who’d slot into a theoretical playoff rotation. Doing so would lessen the reliance on currently injured arms in the season’s second half and safeguard against further injuries.
One factor to consider in any Astros trade scenarios is one of salary. General manager Dana Brown said early in the 2023-24 offseason that he didn’t expect to have much financial flexibility. Houston still spent over the winter, most notably on Josh Hader’s $95MM contract, but that only further raises the question of how much flexibility the team has this summer.
Per RosterResource, Houston is right at the $257MM threshold for the second tier of luxury tax penalization. There’s no major penalty for crossing into tier two — just a hike in the tax rate itself — and it’s unlikely the Astros would add another $20MM and push themselves up to the third tier of penalty (where their top pick in the ’25 draft would be pushed back 10 places). But Houston has only paid the luxury tax twice under owner Jim Crane, and the team has never trotted out a higher payroll than its current 2024 outlay. Time will tell how much Crane is willing to add, but it’s doubtful Brown and his group will be given a proverbial blank check when shopping this month.