The Burnes deal adds to our starting pitcher surplus. What could the D-backs do to turn that surplus into value?
Wow.
The Diamondbacks came swooping in at the 11th hour (literally) and got the prized arm on the 2024/5 free agent market. There were no reports that Arizona was even in the hunt for Burnes’ services, and yet, the team came to terms with him on the largest deal in team history. I don’t even think Mike Hazen ever once mentioned starting pitching as part of his offseason To-Dos, outside of trading away from our perceived wealth there. Well done, Mr. Kendrick and Mr. Hazen.
I wanted to get the Thank Yous and Well Dones out of the way early because I didn’t want to sound like a brat (though I’m probably using an outdated definition of that word) when I ask: “What’s next?”
As mentioned at the top, the Diamondbacks looked to have a surplus of starting pitchers before the Burnes deal was made. Now? There must be another deal on the way to cull the herd. Right?
Jordan Montgomery
First, let’s start with the obvious: Jordan Montgomery. Gumby seems the most likely to have his days in the desert numbered. Between the owner of the team openly criticizing himself over his signing and the general fanbase negativity towards him, I wouldn’t be surprised if Montgomery himself doesn’t want to be traded. Unfortunately, we now have even less leverage to move him than we did when we tried to ship him off to the Friendly Confines. With six legitimate starting pitchers, Hazen could conceivably say that we don’t HAVE to take a deal for Monty if we don’t like it. We could use a six-man rotation. We could wait until Spring Training and see if there are any injuries, to our rotation or another. But not now. There’s no way we can walk into Salt River Fields (pitchers and catchers report in about six weeks, by the way) with seven starters. With our leverage gone to drive up a price, we have to rely on Monty’s market value alone. What is the market value of a 32-year-old soft-tossing southpaw coming off a season with a 6.23 ERA?
A Montgomery trade seems the most likely, but I have no idea if we’ll even be able to offload half of his $22.5M cap hit at this point. And we’re definitely not getting anybody of value back in a deal for him, either. Maybe what we get back for him doesn’t matter. The competitor in me doesn’t like the idea of selling off assets at 50 cents on the dollar (or less), but we’ve already won by adding a true TOR ace to our stable of horses. Sending Montgomery to his next stop on his journey is most likely to be addition by subtraction, anyway.
Zac Gallen
Now, let’s start to get a little wild. Among the non-Gumby starters, Zac Gallen is the most obvious trade chip. Hazen could laugh off trading away Gallen earlier in the offseason because he was going ‘all in’ on 2025. Now, the calculus has changed. We have a staff ace locked in for 2025/6 even if we trade Gallen away.
What would Gallen’s return look like? I think you could argue he is at least 90% of what Corbin Burnes was when he was traded last offseason. The Orioles sent a former Top 100 Prospect pitcher with 1 year of service time, the 63rd rated prospect in all MLB, and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft to the Brewers in exchange for one year of Burnes’ services. Maybe Gallen doesn’t get the draft pick, or the second prospect isn’t quite as highly rated, but I certainly think that’s the kind of package you could expect. Not too shabby.
The real question with trading Gallen is: Should we? If Mike Hazen is all-in on 2025, keeping Gallen paired with Burnes is a true needle-mover. Swapping out Gallen for Burnes? It’s a good long term move, but it doesn’t really change our 2025 trajectory. We’ll still be clawing for the last wild card spot. And with Roki Sasaki’s likeliest destination being with one of the two teams who finished in front of us in the division last year, we may still end up with the 3rd best rotation in the NL West even with Burnes/Gallen!
Brandon Pfaadt/Ryne Nelson
I’d like to pitch my crown jewel of wild proposals. Will it happen? Probably not. Then again, I had made comments on this site early in the offseason about signing Burnes/Fried and then trading away Gallen, and I never thought in a million years even half that would come true. So here goes:
Brandon Pfaadt was our best starter last season by WAR. He was our only pitcher to pitch at least 180 innings and he was one of two pitchers on the team to reach 150 innings, the other being second-half breakout Ryne Nelson. Coming into the offseason, those two looked to have 2025 to prove themselves as possible Gallen-replacements for 2026 and beyond. There was certainly reason for optimism with both. Pfaadt is a former top prospect whose final ERA of 4.71 last year may not impress, but it seems he was woefully unlucky as his FIP, xERA, and xFIP were all an entire run better at 3.58-3.75. Pfaadt’s second half appeared to be most brutal, pitching to a 5.93 ERA, but having a FIP and xFIP of 3.49 and 3.22, respectively, indicates he was pitching well but was getting bit with sequencing. Also on Pfaadt’s resume is the big game chops he’s shown by pitching his best under the bright lights of October. Ryne Nelson, doesn’t have the same playoff resume or prospect pedigree as Pfaadt, but his second half of 2024 was extremely impressive. Nelson just turned in good start after good start down the stretch of a playoff run. The numbers backed it up, too, with his ERA (3.23) actually matching his sparkling ERA estimators (both at 3.24).
There is lots to dream on with both of them, but with rotation space suddenly scarce, would the Diamondbacks use one of them as trade ammunition? If they did, it could only be for hunting big game. What kind of big game do I suggest would they go after? Mason Miller.
Mason Miller was one of the hottest names to breakout in the 2024 season. His electrifying fastball averaged 101.1mph which was the fastest in all of baseball among anyone who threw at least 50IP (JMart was #2 by the way). Since 2015, there have been only 4 player-seasons where a pitcher averaged at least 101mph on his fastball (Miller joined Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, and Jhoan Duran as doing it once each). Of those 4 seasons, Miller’s had the highest K/9 at 14.4 while maintaining a BB/9 below 3 (for context, JMart’s improved control in 2024 still resulted in a BB/9 of 4.5). Yes, I know the A’s have said they aren’t shopping Miller, but c’mon, this is the A’s. They are always willing to make a deal. So let’s make a godfather offer. A trade package of Pfaadt or Nelson along with Lawlar would be the headliners, then fill in as necessary to get the A’s to ‘Yes’. Not a single prospect or AAAA player should be untouchable.
Miller at the backend with Justin Martinez for the next 5 years? Yes, please. Throw in AJ Puk for the next 2 years? That’s a bullpen capable of winning 4 rounds in October.
Conclusion
I was truly shocked at the Diamondbacks’ ability to get a deal done with Corbin Burnes. All the reporting said we had a pretty strict top-end of our free agent budget and Burnes wouldn’t fit, at least not while still allowing the team to address its other holes in the roster. Now that the deal is done, who knows what’s on the horizon?! Can we still afford Kirby Yates or other top-end bullpen arms (assuming we don’t trade for Mason Miller, of course)? Is the offense pretty much set, with maybe a couple small contracts left like the ones handed out to Grichuk or Newman last offseason? Or will they trade from their surplus of starters for an impact bat? After last night, anything is on the table.
Wow.